phlwx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 These are years that feature ENSO reading in Jul/Aug-Aug/Sep that are between .3 and .7 but also have a winter ENSO reading above 0, which this winter *should* have. Averages are per MEI. 1953...barely for the winter (DJF average was 0.081) 1958 1963 1992 2003 2004 (One other year that matches the data set, 1980, ended up ENSO negative in the winter of 80-81 by a smidge so it gets thrown out as criteria for this data set is ENSO+ for DJF). Winter results at PHL (temps, snowfall) 53-54: 37.4, 22.6" 58-59: 31.4, 5.1" 63-64: 30.9, 32.9" 92-93: 36.3, 24.3" 03-04: 32.8, 18.0" 04-05: 35.2, 30.4" Average: 34.0, 20.6" 53-54 is probably the most "nada" of the data set...every other winter was generally above .4 and below .8 for the DJF MEI...not quite a Nino but a positive ENSO winter. As you can tell, a mix of years...58-59 was a very dry winter hence the lack of snow despite cold. Other years are pretty good in the set -- 92-93 (obvious), 04-05 (NFC Title Game Snowstorm), 63-64 was a good winter, 53-54 was great in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 These are years that feature ENSO reading in Jul/Aug-Aug/Sep that are between .3 and .7 but also have a winter ENSO reading above 0, which this winter *should* have. Averages are per MEI. 1953...barely for the winter (DJF average was 0.081) 1958 1963 1992 2003 2004 (One other year that matches the data set, 1980, ended up ENSO negative in the winter of 80-81 by a smidge so it gets thrown out as criteria for this data set is ENSO+ for DJF). Winter results at PHL (temps, snowfall) 53-54: 37.4, 22.6" 58-59: 31.4, 5.1" 63-64: 30.9, 32.9" 92-93: 36.3, 24.3" 03-04: 32.8, 18.0" 04-05: 35.2, 30.4" Average: 34.0, 20.6" 53-54 is probably the most "nada" of the data set...every other winter was generally above .4 and below .8 for the DJF MEI...not quite a Nino but a positive ENSO winter. As you can tell, a mix of years...58-59 was a very dry winter hence the lack of snow despite cold. Other years are pretty good in the set -- 92-93 (obvious), 04-05 (NFC Title Game Snowstorm), 63-64 was a good winter, 53-54 was great in January. Nice info. Thanks. After the dissappointment of last season, you have to wonder if snow weenies would be "happy" with an average snowfall (20"-25" range for PHL) across our region. If I can squeeze out 25-30" here in the nearby NW burbs, I'd be content coming off of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Nice info. Thanks. After the dissappointment of last season, you have to wonder if snow weenies would be "happy" with an average snowfall (20"-25" range for PHL) across our region. If I can squeeze out 25-30" here in the nearby NW burbs, I'd be content coming off of last year. I think most of us would be happy with "equal chances" of winter this year...can't get 40"+ every winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I think most of us would be happy with "equal chances" of winter this year...can't get 40"+ every winter! But can we get <10" every winter? I wonder what the incidence is of back to back much below average winters, something like 1/2 or less of the average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 But can we get <10" every winter? I wonder what the incidence is of back to back much below average winters, something like 1/2 or less of the average? three times since 1884 we've failed to crack 10" in back-to-back winters. (1888-89/89-90, 1929-30/30-31/31-32, 1949-50/50-51) We've only not cracked 10" in 20 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 three times since 1884 we've failed to crack 10" in back-to-back winters. (1888-89/89-90, 1929-30/30-31/31-32, 1949-50/50-51) We've only not cracked 10" in 20 winters. A depression on a number of levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 A depression on a number of levels. except for Adam...he would have been living large in those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.