uncle W Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I could only come up with six analogs for this year... analog years...snowfall/largest snowfall ave temp...minimum... 1951-52..........19.7"............5.5"..........37.0............8 1963-64..........44.7"..........12.5"..........33.3............9 1976-77..........24.5"............5.2"..........28.5...........-2 2002-03..........49.3"..........19.8"..........31.2............7 2006-07..........12.4"............5.5"..........36.5............8 2009-10..........51.4"..........20.9"..........33.8..........13 average..........33.7"..........11.6"..........33.4............7 temperatures are average for the long term...snowfall is above the long term average...largest snowfall close to a foot...lowest temperature is seven... Three great winters... one good... one mediocre... one bad... 1951-52 had a negative AO in Septemper but was quite positive in December with a positive NAO...both were negative in February and March...so far fall temperatures are close to 51-52...... 1963-64 had a warm October and November but cold December...the winter AO averaged slightly negative desite a slightly positive January...The NAO was negative all four months Dec/Mar... 1976-77 had a very negative AO Dec/Feb...+ in March...The nao was negative all four months... 2002-03 had a negative AO Dec/Jan and a + AO Feb/Mar...The nao was negative in Dec. and slightly + Jan/Mar... 2006-07 had a very positive AO Dec/Jan...A negative Feb...A positive March...The NAO followed the same pattern... 2009-10 had a very negative AO Dec/Feb and still negative in March...The NAO was negative all four months... Other factors know and unknown played a roll in these years... I had 1960-61 and 1993-94 as analogs but left them off because they didn't follow a la nina year...The analogs are forecasting a snowy winter with average temperatures...A major storm of nearly a foot...Do I believe this forecast?..The first clue to a cold and snowy winter will be a cold December...2006 and 1951 had mild Decembers...They ended up with less snow than normal...The other four years had December temperatures below average...Three had well above average snowfall and the other average...We could very easily see a winter like 1951-52...It would be better than last year but will be lacking in the snowfall category...I doubt we see a winter as cold as 1976-77...Snowfall is feast or famine...I'm leaning towards feasting at this time..TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 the only analog any good so far is 1951-52...I should have added 1953-54...It had almost 16" of snowfall...Most of it fell in November and January...It was mild except for January...There have not been many above average snowfall years when December was milder than usual...57-58 did...This December will probably end up milder than average...my expectations of a snowy winter is fading...It could still happen but it has to get cold first...Even the crummy years I mentioned had a cold wave in sight...All we need is one HECS to make this winter good...There is still time for that but... So far December is averaging 45.4...If it ends up averaging over 40.0 the chances for a snowy winter is very low... Years with December averaging 40.0 or higher and seasonal snowfall..Largest snowfall... season...snowfall...largest snowfall... 1889-90...24.3".....6.0" Dec/Mar 1891-92...25.4".....8.0" March 1923-24...27.5".....8.5" April 1931-32.....5.3".....2.0" November 1953-54...15.8".....7.8" January 1956-57...21.9".....6.4" February 1957-58...44.7"...11.8" March 1965-66...21.4".....6.8" January 1971-72...22.9".....5.7" February 1979-80...12.8".....4.6" March 1982-83...27.2"...17.6" February 1984-85...24.1".....5.7" February 1990-91...24.9".....8.9" February 1994-95...11.8"...10.8" February 1996-97...10.0".....3.5" January 1998-99...12.7".....4.5" March 1999-00...16.3".....5.5" January 2001-02.....3.5".....3.0" January 2006-07...12.4".....5.5" March 2011-12.....7.4".....4.3" January average...18.6".....6.8" The average snowfall is almost ten inches below the long term average...7" less than the 30 year normals...Average big snow is almost 7"...That's below also...Only three of the 20 had a snowfall 10" or more...Only one had above the long term seasonal average...57-58... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 So far 12/13 has the same exact "feel" to it as 11/12 did. Major hurricane then very early season snowfall - above average temp snowless december is next - BUT just like last year the longer range always held hope for a return to cold/snow which never ended up happening in 11/12 - even the best Mets out there busted last year - same ones keep promising the cold and snow this year too always 7 - 10 days away - lets see what actually verifies this year............................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 So far 12/13 has the same exact "feel" to it as 11/12 did. Major hurricane then very early season snowfall - above average temp snowless december is next - BUT just like last year the longer range always held hope for a return to cold/snow which never ended up happening in 11/12 - even the best Mets out there busted last year - same ones keep promising the cold and snow this year too always 7 - 10 days away - lets see what actually verifies this year............................... numbers are just numbers...anything can happen in the future...But the odds are low...I'll add the next twelve warmest Decembers...all averaging 39.0 or higher... 1881-82...31.4".....9.0" January 1911-12...29.5".....7.0" December 1912-13...15.3"...11.4" December 1918-19.....3.8".....1.4" March 1928-29...13.8".....9.2" February 1932-33...27.0"...10.0" February 1949-50...13.8".....3.8" February 1973-74...23.5".....6.0" February 1974-75...13.1".....7.8" February 1986-87...23.1".....8.1" January 1987-88...19.1".....5.8" January 1991-92...12.6".....6.2" March... average...18.8".....7.1" Two of the twelve were above the long term average...Two had a storm 10" or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Sounding and feeling more and more like last winter I realize everyone gets pissed and goes crazy when people say that but lets be honest it does remind everyone of last winter they just refuse to admit it and flip out when people say it... Ok so the numbers that uncle w posts are better then last but let's face they are not the best at all!! Sorry but I have to agree with neg nao it feels alot like last year. And you can call me whatever you want or just delete the post couse it doesn't go along with what you want to see but this is what it reminds me.. I would love to be completely wrong and look like the biggest ass I really hope that is wha happens but Wright now it doesn't look good to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 It hasn't been nearly as warm as last year. November was cold and snowy this time around, whereas last year we had tons of days in the 60s in November. This year, I had 2 snow events and a bunch of nights below freezing. December has started off mild but not ridiculously so, and all the models show the last 10 days basically being cold with some Nor'easter potential as the NAO retrogrades from Scandinavia to central Canada. People are getting upset too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I fully admit too reacting quickly but like I said It just makes you think of last year like neg nao said it just feels like it.. A late hurricane and a snow storm in Nov is just like last year so it's always on your mind then you start hearing about the models backing off on a pattern change till after the new year just seems like it's always 10 days away!!!!!! Like I said before I hope im totally wrong and look like a total ass for thinking about last year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I fully admit too reacting quickly but like I said It just makes you think of last year like neg nao said it just feels like it.. A late hurricane and a snow storm in Nov is just like last year so it's always on your mind then you start hearing about the models backing off on a pattern change till after the new year just seems like it's always 10 days away!!!!!! Like I said before I hope im totally wrong and look like a total ass for thinking about last year.... Just the last couple of days have begun to get the same flavor as last year with all this relatively mild calm december weather - no 2 years are exactly alike - I think what we are suffering through now is a La Nina hangover which will probably go away in the next couple of weeks IMO.......BUT with the ENSO being close to neutral that just makes things more difficult to forecast - no one has the skill level in this type of situation to come of with an accurate forecast past 3 - 5 days........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Just the last couple of days have begun to get the same flavor as last year with all this relatively mild december weather - no 2 years are exactly alike - I think what we are suffering through now is a La Nina hangover which will probably go away in the next couple of weeks IMO.......BUT with the ENSO being close to neutral that just makes things more difficult to forecast - no one has the skill level in this type of situation to come of with an accurate forecast past 3 - 5 days........... The difference is this year we have a mostly -AO/-NAO. Similarity is that we have an unfavorable Pacific with a +EPO (Alaska low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Can the crying banter be moved to another thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 there are 33 winters since 1868-69 with 40" or more of snowfall...December averaged 33.6 for these 33 winters...Coldest was 24.9 in 1876...Mildest was 40.2 in 1957...I averaged the lowest 33 snowiest winters and December averaged 37.7...coldest was 29.2 in 1871...Mildest was 44.1 in 2001......It helps to have a cold December...This year we got help from November...Lets hope there's more help to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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