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12/16/10 0Z THREAD


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See the SNE thread//It did come west and the mets there will tell you that

I'm sitting at my computer at work flipping between the two. I'm telling you that it moved at most 50 mi west. More like 30 mi (0.5 degrees). There is virtually no difference between the 12z and 0z ensemble means. The mets in the SNE forum are wrong.

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The Canadian op was like 250 mies east of the BM..lol. The ensembles are about 80 miles or so wnw of the 00z op run.

The euro ensembles verbatim came about 50 miles or so west of the 12z ensembles, but there a a lot of spread to the west...closer to the BM. It has the bulge or trough signature to the west of the low.

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Yeah, if you look at the standard deviation on the ECMWF site, you can see there must be quite a few deep solutions to the west of the mean center position (which would cause a high standard deviation). But in order to produce that mean, there are probably quite a few weak OTS solutions that produce the mean center where it is (with a lower standard deviation).

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No, it's not. The ensemble barely moved. If I wasn't trying to prove a point and was just glancing at them, I would say there is no change. The shift of the operational model was very significant, but the ensemble mean was nothing. Stop wishcasting.

On WSI, the ens mean has basically two centers...one a bit west of 12z and another about 150 mi west....there's a clear jump west. The secondary center is clearly showing that the spread is high but its hedging west. Its a much more detailed map than the very broad freebies.

Its not a wishcast to say the ens mean is well west of where it was...it clearly is. That said, I'm not about to jump on board with the 0z OP Euro yet...it could easily have over compensated.

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On WSI, the ens mean has basically two centers...one a bit west of 12z and another about 150 mi west....there's a clear jump west. The secondary center is clearly showing that the spread is high but its hedging west. Its a much more detailed map than the very broad freebies.

Its not a wishcast to say the ens mean is well west of where it was...it clearly is. That said, I'm not about to jump on board with the 0z OP Euro yet...it could easily have over compensated.

Thanks Will

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On WSI, the ens mean has basically two centers...one a bit west of 12z and another about 150 mi west....there's a clear jump west. The secondary center is clearly showing that the spread is high but its hedging west. Its a much more detailed map than the very broad freebies.

Its not a wishcast to say the ens mean is well west of where it was...it clearly is. That said, I'm not about to jump on board with the 0z OP Euro yet...it could easily have over compensated.

We're going to have to agree to disagree on this one. There were about 5-7 really strong members that contributed to the second low farther to the west. The main cluster of weaker lows was well to the east.

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