12/16/10 0Z THREAD

[Inudaw]

Nothing yet you still need another shift west to get anything there.

I don't have access to the euro.. but according to tombo there was some light precip up to DC early on as the low was developing around Cape Hatterus with light to moderate precip for Eastern Va. How much this means for those along the 95 corridor further south in Va.. I'm not sure.

[A-L-E-X]

We get almost nothing. We still need help down here.

Still has time to trend-- data doesnt get well sampled until tomorrow and the southern storm has to move out of the way first.

BTW I meant to state this earlier but I didnt get a chance-- you can have big Miller A type storms in la ninas-- especially if the la nina comes after an el nino.  Noteworthy cases of big la nina snowstorms were March 1956, the storms of the 1966-67 winter (which came after the el nino of 1965-66), Feb 89, 1995-96 of course (which came after the el nino of 1994-95), the January 2000 storm, the Millenium storm in the 00-01 winter, the big storm in the 05-06 winter (which came right after the el nino of 04-05.)  So you see, it can happen

[ravensrule]

I don't have access to the euro.. but according to tombo there was some light precip up to DC early on as the low was developing around Cape Hatterus with light to moderate precip for Eastern Va. How much this means for those along the 95 corridor further south in Va.. I'm not sure.

Well as you can see my qpf is only .01 -.05 so i cannot imagine Richmond is more than that.

[ORH_wxman]

Will, does about a foot sound about right to you for western long island, and perhaps more to the east?

There's a sharp cutoff, you probably get 3-5" of snow...while eastern LI gets 12" and NYC gets 1"

[Guest someguy]

Boston gets about 18" of blizzard snow on the ECMWF run

not likely

[ORH_wxman]

not likely

Yeah actually they do...how would they not in that run? I'm looking at it on WSI right now.

It might not happen, but this run definitely kills them....a retrograding low going N to NNW keeps them easily off the ocean for sfc winds....that is a snow track for BOS.

[wthrmn654]

12"+/- for Eastern li is crazy

[Patfan1987]

Next computer model is wat and wat time?

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/weatherblog/12018/Weather-Model-overview-%28the-basics%29-from-meterologist-posting-on-Eastern

[Nikolai]

BIG warmup coming up after christmas folks...hopefully at least one of these threats pans out...:WEENIE

The same mets who trumpeted a mid-December warmup are those saying we'll see a late-December warm-up... while we may see one lake cutter or a random inland event, I think the -NAO will repeat into early January, with plenty more chances through at least 1/10-15 for the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. Just me, though.

[A-L-E-X]

There's a sharp cutoff, you probably get 3-5" of snow...while eastern LI gets 12" and NYC gets 1"

Thats strange lol-- the guys in the NYC subforum are saying the euro is showing .75 qpf for NYC and 1-1.25 qpf for western long island.  Also, a minute trend in the model (like 50 miles) buries all of us.  Not that hard to do in the next 24 hours.

[ORH_wxman]

Thats strange lol-- the guys in the NYC subforum are saying the euro is showing .75 qpf for NYC and 1-1.25 qpf for western long island. Also, a minute trend in the model (like 50 miles) buries all of us. Not that hard to do in the next 24 hours.

NYC doesnt come close to 0.75" on the WSI maps. They actually might get slightly more than I first saud though...maybe like 0.25" after all is said and done. Is tight gradient though...you probably get 0.50"

[ORH_wxman]

He's saying its not likely to occur at ALL...the run doesn't make sense...its a bunch of bull crap...it has NO backing from ANY of the other models...its a CRAP run...anyone that thinks that forecast is going to verify is full of themselves...this is going to be a supressed coastal...period...the question is not does it get to BOS or not....because its NOT...the question is does it even make to DC or not...and right now...I still think coastal VA/NE NC and coastal MD are in the crosshairs...regardless of what ONE crap model says...

That is a completely different debate....yeah it could be wrong...we were just talking about what the model shows.

[A-L-E-X]

NYC doesnt come close to 0.75" on the WSI maps. They actually might get slightly more than I first saud though...maybe like 0.25" after all is said and done. Is tight gradient though...you probably get 0.50"

Will do you think a further trend is likely tomorrow as the data gets better sampled and the first storm gets out of the way?  50-75 miles should still be well within the margin of error.

[SmokeEater]

Meh-- they all have large margins of error outside of 48 hours, especially in a pattern like this. Funny thing is, if this trend holds true, both the GFS and EURO had their fleeting moment of clarity a few days ago when they both showed a major storm stalling just offshore. That brief moment of clarity lasted for like 1-2 runs lol.

Yup, the one thing to take from this, is the models don't have a damn clue what's going on, lol. But the EURO was the one consistent model, with misses with every run except one. I want to see this solution hold tomorrow, before I get too excited. IMO, if it's still here at 12z, it may be game on. But we shall see.

[earthlight]

NYC doesnt come close to 0.75" on the WSI maps. They actually might get slightly more than I first saud though...maybe like 0.25" after all is said and done. Is tight gradient though...you probably get 0.50"

Weird...the SV maps have the 0.50" inch line west of NYC into NE NJ.

[A-L-E-X]

Yup, the one thing to take from this, is the models don't have a damn clue what's going on, lol. But the EURO was the one consistent model, with misses with every run except one. I want to see this solution hold tomorrow, before I get too excited. IMO, if it's still here at 12z, it may be game on. But we shall see.

Yeah  I want to see this follow through 12z and the next 0z when the SW gets into an area of better sampling and the first storm gets out of the way.  Until then, all options are still on the table.  This thing could even trend somewhat further to the southwest.

[dendrite]

YOU are NOT a moderator

I am though. Everyone cut the crap.

[ORH_wxman]

PLEASE STOP...thanks...the EUROPEAN MODEL IS ONE MODEL...it is NOT an ensemble of models...and I am NOT contradicting myself...when the EURO ensembles come out and show an offshore solution, we will put this one to rest where it lays...thanks...drink a beer and RELAX...its meteorology...NOT modelology

You need to shutup now or get off the board...we were discussing the 00z Euro run...nobody said it wopuld verify....but we were discussing what it showed.

I guess it really hits a sore spot with you that Boston gets hammered on the run. Thats fine, be sore about it, but stop posting total garbage and misquoting people implying they are forecasting for it to verify vs when they are merely showing what the model solutions says.

[earthlight]

alright thank you, i thought i was hallucinating

You weren't...I see the same thing. It might be our lower resolution, or the fact that we are looking at the 150 hr total QPF after all the light snow. Not sure.

[NCSnowstorm]

Actually, I could care less...I was not upset about what the model showed...regardless of what others were saying...whatever...have the ensembles come out yet by chance?

You need to shutup now or get off the board...we were discussing the 00z Euro run...nobody said it wopuld verify....but we were discussing what it showed.

I guess it really hits a sore spot with you that Boston gets hammered on the run. Thats fine, be sore about it, but stop posting total garbage and misquoting people implying they are forecasting for it to verify vs when they are merely showing what the model solutions says.

[Guest someguy]

The same mets who trumpeted a mid-December warmup are those saying we'll see a late-December warm-up... while we may see one lake cutter or a random inland event, I think the -NAO will repeat into early January, with plenty more chances through at least 1/10-15 for the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. Just me, though.

who talked about a Mid DEC warm up?

[A-L-E-X]

You weren't...I see the same thing. It might be our lower resolution, or the fact that we are looking at the 150 hr total QPF after all the light snow. Not sure.

Nate said it snows through hr 162 and we get about an inch QPF as per this model run.

[am19psu]

have the ensembles come out yet by chance?

Euro ensemble mean is well east of the operational model

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro ensemble mean is well east of the operational model

And well west of the 12z Euro ensembles from yesterday. Very important trend overnight with the op and Euro ensembles

[mitchnick]

from what I'm seeing, that short wave is still in the PAC , just east of 135W/30N

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/IR/&NUMBLOOP=10

assuming that's the s/w in question, it won't be on shore until 0Z tonight

its a glimmer, but just a glimmer

[am19psu]

And well west of the 12z Euro ensembles from yesterday. Very important trend overnight with the op and Euro ensembles

No, it's not. At best, it's 50 mi farther west. On Monday morning, the center of the low is out near 64W.

[Damage In Tolland]

No, it's not. At best, it's 50 mi farther west. On Monday morning, the center of the low is out near 64W.

For an ensemble packagae that's a big jump west and backs up the big op jump west..Ensembles are always east of the op at this time range on any model

[am19psu]

For an ensemble packagae that's a big jump west and backs up the big op jump west..Ensembles are always east of the op at this time range on any model

No, it's not. The ensemble barely moved. If I wasn't trying to prove a point and was just glancing at them, I would say there is no change. The shift of the operational model was very significant, but the ensemble mean was nothing. Stop wishcasting.

[fameso]

00z GFS ensemble precip anomaly looks like a light event for the east coast but SOME snow overall. Also a good 3-6" for the VA area.

[Damage In Tolland]

No, it's not. The ensemble barely moved. If I wasn't trying to prove a point and was just glancing at them, I would say there is no change. The shift of the operational model was very significant, but the ensemble mean was nothing. Stop wishcasting.

See the SNE thread//It did come west and the mets there will tell you that