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12/16/10 0Z THREAD


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And thats what is going to be killer. Look at 78 hour. Can you imagine seeing that on radar and then it shooting off the coast. SNE still stands a chance though.

well 84 hours isn't even that close

still looks like Euro will be right

just a shame that the Euro has been showing snow storms for us in the 7-9 day range this year and all have been busts

gotta remember that if and when it shows another one this year

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An odd run, very much in line with the 18Z run just a tad slower. I notice some oddities:

1) Form 48 to 72 HR NYC 500 Heights MB rise then they fall from 72 to 78hr they they start to rise ever so slightly from 78 to 84hr seems odd

2) The mean trough really retrogress from 72 to 84hr I would think the storm would be further west with this scenario

3) A major Rex Block sets up by 84hr this will set up a slowly moving storm once it explodes by hr 96 of so

So I would wait for the GFS, the GEM and ECMWF and see where they trend with the east coast bomb before I would call it quits I still think the is a real east coast storm potential with this one, the pattern is right. Then I would wait for the 12Z package before I make a forecast.

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Great insight on the model run tonight. Agree with your thoughts.. To me, the NAM is a step in the right direction. Now, we wait for the rest of 00z guidance..

An odd run, very much in line with the 18Z run just a tad slower. I notice some oddities:

1) Form 48 to 72 HR NYC 500 Heights MB rise then they fall from 72 to 78hr they they start to rise ever so slightly from 78 to 84hr seems odd

2) The mean trough really retrogress from 72 to 84hr I would think the storm would be further west with this scenario

3) A major Rex Block sets up by 84hr this will set up a slowly moving storm once it explodes by hr 96 of so

So I would wait for the GFS, the GEM and ECMWF and see where they trend with the east coast bomb before I would call it quits I still think the is a real east coast storm potential with this one, the pattern is right. Then I would wait for the 12Z package before I make a forecast.

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Guest someguy

well 84 hours isn't even that close

still looks like Euro will be right

just a shame that the Euro has been showing snow storms for us in the 7-9 day range this year and all have been busts

gotta remember that if and when it shows another one this year

its BIZARRE that you are blasting the EURO at day 7-8-9 but the GFS at day 3 4-5 that has been shwoing BIG snowstorms

doesnt draw any comment at all

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correct me if I'm wrong...it looks as if the PV is actually trying to split which was made the 12/14 12z gfs so favorable...that and a much stronger southern stream SW. This looks very bad now, unless of course the Euro makes a massive recovery which seems highly unlikely. I still say though that we cant make the final call until all the components are over the NM continent and the models have a better sampeling especally with regards the the SW.:thumbsdown:

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its BIZARRE that you are blasting the EURO at day 7-89 but the GFS at day 3 4-5 that has been shwoing BIG snowstorms

doesnt draw any comment at all

the Euro showed the threat 1st, and that's what drew most of us in

and its not the first time this year it has done it 7 days+

as for the GFS, other MR models followed suit

all the GFS did was to loose it last, by a couple or 3 runs

what's so bizarre about no commenting on that especially since the GFS has been everyone's whipping post for years?

the lesson is, no matter which model shows it, any threat beyond 4 days should be disregarded; its just hard to do with this hobby :arrowhead:

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Looks like this event over the weekend is looking less likely. European has been insistent the last several days for nothing signficant. This run, the cold weather stays on. Based on this run, do have some quick moving systems. They could bring winter threats. Maybe something by Wednesday to the Mid-Atlantic region. But still a pretty cold look on this run. Also, the look of the 500mb maps has a fast flow to it.. While up in Canada, pretty blocky.

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