mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 if we could get a 5H Low to close off by 84, we would have a shot but there's nothing to suggest it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yes, I would love to go. I'll bring the beer. NAM is a near miss-- still time to ease it west. If the SW in the 4 corners slows down a little, we in bidness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM at 78HR is trying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Let's stay on topic, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 if we could get a 5H Low to close off by 84, we would have a shot but there's nothing to suggest it will And thats what is going to be killer. Look at 78 hour. Can you imagine seeing that on radar and then it shooting off the coast. SNE still stands a chance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM at 78HR is trying... I know I'll hear it with this, but that radar signature does remind me of 1/25/00, or should I say the early afternoon of 1/24/00 before the trough went crazy negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 84HR is a miss and a wide one at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 And thats what is going to be killer. Look at 78 hour. Can you imagine seeing that on radar and then it shooting off the coast. SNE still stands a chance though. well 84 hours isn't even that close still looks like Euro will be right just a shame that the Euro has been showing snow storms for us in the 7-9 day range this year and all have been busts gotta remember that if and when it shows another one this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 that vort in canada continues to retrograde west at 84...it's just looking for an opportunity to drop in and phase. I'm thinking that next piece coming in from the west might be the one. Could that be the R.S. Lunar bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 An odd run, very much in line with the 18Z run just a tad slower. I notice some oddities: 1) Form 48 to 72 HR NYC 500 Heights MB rise then they fall from 72 to 78hr they they start to rise ever so slightly from 78 to 84hr seems odd 2) The mean trough really retrogress from 72 to 84hr I would think the storm would be further west with this scenario 3) A major Rex Block sets up by 84hr this will set up a slowly moving storm once it explodes by hr 96 of so So I would wait for the GFS, the GEM and ECMWF and see where they trend with the east coast bomb before I would call it quits I still think the is a real east coast storm potential with this one, the pattern is right. Then I would wait for the 12Z package before I make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM qpf: IAD-.15" DCA-.17" BWI-.14" a bit surprised how similar they are 2-3" with decent ratios possible?...2" yes, 3" I doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Great insight on the model run tonight. Agree with your thoughts.. To me, the NAM is a step in the right direction. Now, we wait for the rest of 00z guidance.. An odd run, very much in line with the 18Z run just a tad slower. I notice some oddities: 1) Form 48 to 72 HR NYC 500 Heights MB rise then they fall from 72 to 78hr they they start to rise ever so slightly from 78 to 84hr seems odd 2) The mean trough really retrogress from 72 to 84hr I would think the storm would be further west with this scenario 3) A major Rex Block sets up by 84hr this will set up a slowly moving storm once it explodes by hr 96 of so So I would wait for the GFS, the GEM and ECMWF and see where they trend with the east coast bomb before I would call it quits I still think the is a real east coast storm potential with this one, the pattern is right. Then I would wait for the 12Z package before I make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 RGEM at 48 hours seems a bit more impressed with the weekend system that's a pretty juicy Gulf of Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 For what its worth the GFS is a bit more south with the precip shield than the NAM...not sure .1 would even make it to BWI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS looks hideous through 48HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS doesnt look too hott at hour 54, not digging enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS is very unimpressive through 72 hours. No southern short wave at all.. very flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS doesnt look too hott at hour 54, not digging enough Uh, there's not even a storm. OK, let's look for next week's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 at 72 storm is gone.....worst GFS run yet for weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 but thats just 1 model correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 but thats just 1 model correct? Basically all models are not good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 well 84 hours isn't even that close still looks like Euro will be right just a shame that the Euro has been showing snow storms for us in the 7-9 day range this year and all have been busts gotta remember that if and when it shows another one this year its BIZARRE that you are blasting the EURO at day 7-8-9 but the GFS at day 3 4-5 that has been shwoing BIG snowstorms doesnt draw any comment at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 but thats just 1 model correct? Yes...the one that was keeping us on life support.... I think the plug may have been pulled. The PV to the north seems to be pushing as it needs to move west to let this puppy turn the corner north as well as it digging to late . Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 correct me if I'm wrong...it looks as if the PV is actually trying to split which was made the 12/14 12z gfs so favorable...that and a much stronger southern stream SW. This looks very bad now, unless of course the Euro makes a massive recovery which seems highly unlikely. I still say though that we cant make the final call until all the components are over the NM continent and the models have a better sampeling especally with regards the the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 its BIZARRE that you are blasting the EURO at day 7-89 but the GFS at day 3 4-5 that has been shwoing BIG snowstorms doesnt draw any comment at all the Euro showed the threat 1st, and that's what drew most of us in and its not the first time this year it has done it 7 days+ as for the GFS, other MR models followed suit all the GFS did was to loose it last, by a couple or 3 runs what's so bizarre about no commenting on that especially since the GFS has been everyone's whipping post for years? the lesson is, no matter which model shows it, any threat beyond 4 days should be disregarded; its just hard to do with this hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Very interesting clipper.. O-o That tries to redevelop later at 120-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Good luck trying to decifer any particular disturbance or threat past a couple days in this pattern... yesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like this event over the weekend is looking less likely. European has been insistent the last several days for nothing signficant. This run, the cold weather stays on. Based on this run, do have some quick moving systems. They could bring winter threats. Maybe something by Wednesday to the Mid-Atlantic region. But still a pretty cold look on this run. Also, the look of the 500mb maps has a fast flow to it.. While up in Canada, pretty blocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Good luck trying to decifer any particular disturbance or threat past a couple days in this pattern... yesh. at least as long as the Canadian vortex remains the master of all weather matter east of the MISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Very interesting clipper.. O-o That tries to redevelop later at 120-144 So it says never mind on the coastal and gives us a second place prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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