mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM out to 12 hs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Its rather impressive with the VV's mover W to E from WV towards RIC--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 I screwed up. I thought I was in the main forum. I'm trying to delete, but can't find the delete thread buttom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 further north for sure at 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 24 hrs qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 0z RAOB ingest on the american guidance, and NCEP NAM initialization has begun NCEP Operational Status MessageThu Dec 16 01:37:51 2010 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 160137 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0134Z THU DEC 16 2010 THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 12 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...69 CONUS...6 MEXICAN...AND 3 CARIBBEAN STATIONS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... ANN/70398 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142. KPP/78970 - CODE 10159. ASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM. LZK/72340 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 796-722 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. BMX/72230 - PURGED TEMPS/DWPTS 762-615 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. MCG/70231 - PURGED T/TD/HGTS 818-804 AND 587-328 MB...BAD DATA. $$ HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 24 hrs qpf still a big hit for HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Im liking the whole look of the nam. Strogner s/w in the southwest, pv further north, and stronger energy of utah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM is bullish tomorrow all the way to Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Seems like a good s/w in the SW... surface reflection is there as well at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 looks like Hampton Roads will get into a mix/change based on thickness maps compare 18 hr and 24 hr maps, but not until a decent accumulation http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_slp_018l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_slp_024l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 looks good.. main stripe not going to make it here but this is a decent little event most yrs.. if it wasnt for last yr we'd be insane over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS and NAM have been extremely consistent for MBY at around .11....this looks like a bit more. I feel a bit better about at least an inch tomorrow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS and NAM have been extremely consistent for MBY at around .11....this looks like a bit more. I feel a bit better about at least an inch tomorrow now. Bufkit has had ratios of 1:15 - 1:17, so 2" ain't out of the question you have a better chance than me for sure good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS and NAM have been extremely consistent for MBY at around .11....this looks like a bit more. I feel a bit better about at least an inch tomorrow now. .11 would probably get you 1.75" or so, so if it bumps you've got 2".. this is, as phineas would say, a cold snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 fwiw, the Canadian vortex is moving north pretty steadily by 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 There was a s/w in the SW... By 48 hrs, it seems to have been destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM appears to have no weekend storm at all really. That has been the theme since 12Z Euro run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah, nam is destorying the SW. This is the swan song for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 There was a s/w in the SW... By 48 hrs, it seems to have destroyed although its moving north, the Canadian vortex seems to be spreading out and gobbling any smaller features like a black hole, and I mean that seriously as to the effects of the vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah, nam is destorying the SW. This is the swan song for this storm. I am starting to think there will be no storm at all, miss or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All eyes are turning to next week's clipper at this point. It could be the key to a white christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I am starting to think there will be no storm at all, miss or not. the southern stream is make believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All eyes are turning to next week's clipper at this point. It could be the key to a white christmas. My eyes are on this event-- could be 6 inches down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 is it me, or does it seem like the trough goes no where on the NAM from 60-66 hrs, and seemingly sinks south in the center of the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 is it me, or does it seem like the trough goes no where on the NAM from 60-66 hrs, and seemingly sinks south in the center of the country? the NAM wants to make a storm--its like 6 hours off timing wise of that northern vort dropping in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Theres still going to be a storm on the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Theres still going to be a storm on the NAM.. but the bulk of the precip will still be off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM is really slow now. There is still a storm but it takes forever to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 but the bulk of the precip will still be off shore Probably but just saying..Theres going to be a storm, its just likely to be offshore at this point, Im not sure why people are saying no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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