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Mid to late October disco/banter thread.


CoastalWx

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I think the worst bust for CPC was 2009-2010...they did have it cold in the SE...but really missed the boat everywhere else. A lot of private LR forecasts that winter were cold.

2007-2008 and 2008-2009 were bad busts, but the signals were a lot less clear.

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eh, i can think of one reason why they could be wrong - outside of the 30-year apparent GW that is...

In little kid talk that means, 'since we have no f clue what the NAO and PNA will do this year, we are just going to go ahead and assume ENSO has control over everything; which in turn means the temperature tendencies'.

Good luck with that.

Yes and so if you weren't sure what was going to happen, which way would you forecast? If you are unsure, you usually go persistence and that would be "above normal." We may not all agree on why it happens, but I'd have to imagine your scores will be higher over time if you forecast above normal temperatures. Sure we get occasional cold shots and or near normal to a shade below months, but by and large the above normal regimes blow away the cold ones lately, that's all.

I know you like to look for reasons to be cold, but given the temperature trends lately, I think you'll be more right than wrong by hedging your bets warm. I really can't say I blame them, even if I don't like it.

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