CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 I think the out to sea solution is most likely... but short of the GGEM Hazel redux there is another option which is sort of what the 6Z GFS shows with Sandy's moisture getting drawn into the NEUS. I'm thinking that is possible as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 It's been a while since the Sultan was summoned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It's been a while since the Sultan was summoned. He's had some false alarms but this would be the real deal. Could you imagine if we actually had a hurricane do something like this? lol Hazel moved 500 miles north????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 He's had some false alarms but this would be the real deal. Could you imagine if we actually had a hurricane do something like this? lol Hazel moved 500 miles north????? Would certainly be interesting..lol. I think I'm sort of leaning to the moisture being somewhat entrained into this area for now. I couldn't say if its substantial, but a lot of guidance has that look. It's even possible a wave develops on the front and helps enhance that moisture if Sandy moves east of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I don't think many people would care if the storm was worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Would certainly be interesting..lol. I think I'm sort of leaning to the moisture being somewhat entrained into this area for now. I couldn't say if its substantial, but a lot of guidance has that look. It's even possible a wave develops on the front and helps enhance that moisture if Sandy moves east of the Bahamas. The Euro is actually pretty close to bringing Sandy into the NE. Though the model jogs Sandy east at the last minute I think it's very close to a capture there given the way the trough digs and cuts off. More often than not the models are too amplified with the upper air pattern beyond day 5 but we'll see. No real historical precedent for a hurricane track like what's being modeled impacting MA or NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Weenie feeding time here at AmWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The Euro is actually pretty close to bringing Sandy into the NE. Though the model jogs Sandy east at the last minute I think it's very close to a capture there given the way the trough digs and cuts off. More often than not the models are too amplified with the upper air pattern beyond day 5 but we'll see. No real historical precedent for a hurricane track like what's being modeled impacting MA or NE. yeah agree. that's why it's all fun and games right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 yeah agree. that's why it's all fun and games right now. Even though we haven't seen a hurricane do what the GGEM is showing I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see a storm like that eventually (as in the next 100 years lol) given an anomalous enough pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Even though we haven't seen a hurricane do what the GGEM is showing I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to see a storm like that eventually (as in the next 100 years lol) given an anomalous enough pattern. The evolution is *somewhat* reminiscent of December 94. Some big differences but kind of thought if that event when I saw some of the runs this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 The evolution is *somewhat* reminiscent of December 94. Some big differences but kind of thought if that event when I saw some of the runs this morning LOL, I think you and I are the only ones that loved that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 LOL, I think you and I are the only ones that loved that event. I still remember the satellite shot of that thing coming NNW with essentially an eye SE of ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 The Euro is actually pretty close to bringing Sandy into the NE. Though the model jogs Sandy east at the last minute I think it's very close to a capture there given the way the trough digs and cuts off. More often than not the models are too amplified with the upper air pattern beyond day 5 but we'll see. No real historical precedent for a hurricane track like what's being modeled impacting MA or NE. Yeah agree there. And just to clarify, the moisture idea is an indirect thing. It can almost be a PRE sort of deal with a very high theta-e plume interacting with the frontal boundary and right entrance region of the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 I still remember the satellite shot of that thing coming NNW with essentially an eye SE of ack And the radar images of the banding backing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 The GGEM scenario is probably most likely,But if that doesn't happen and something like the Euro happens then we see snow, so either way we win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 The GGEM scenario is probably most likely,But if that doesn't happen and something like the Euro happens then we see snow, so either way we win Ggem wouldn't be a big deal here with a DC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 LOL at 6z GFS 6Z GFS says we all need to find new homes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Ggem wouldn't be a big deal here with a DC storm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Kevin is trying to seal his WOTY title this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Kevin is trying to seal his WOTY title this year. can one win it 2 years in a row or do we need a new WOTY every year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 can one win it 2 years in a row or do we need a new WOTY every year? His posts in this thread have been comical so far but I can tell he's about to go over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 lol Not for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 His posts in this thread have been comical so far but I can tell he's about to go over the top. It's only October. I'd hate to have to reel him in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 It's only October. I'd hate to have to reel him in. I know, it's only going to get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 interesting how many moving parts there are with that storm's evolution. can't rule out something getting scooped up or some sort of hybrid evolution but also could very easily end up with a 'cane getting booted well seaward and just see a fropa along the coast which is the most likely scenario this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Blizzards of leaves today. Air thick with oak leaves. 1-2 feet at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Sweet! I'd push for some place in the mountains vs. BTV if you are looking for more exciting winter weather. However I understand the GF thing...gotta keep the lady happy.But there's always a decent chance that 1,000ft+ in the Litchfield Hills gets more snow than BTV proper (along the lakeshore there is likely the lowest snowfall area in the state of Vermont) haha. But if you live along either side of the immediate Spine, your chances of getting beat by Litchfield County in snowfall go way, way down. Again...if you move to BTV be prepared mentally to deal with these types of events... That's just a weenie warning if you move to BTV...mentally prepare for it, lol. It’s great to see you making such good use of the weather section of the website PF – I love seeing the combinations of data that you pull out of there. To add to the discussion about living in the Champlain Valley vs. out in the Greens - I was definitely lucky when I lived in Burlington and other parts of the Champlain Valley all those years, because while I drove through the mountains all the time for skiing, I still had no clue about the snowfall disparity between the Burlington area and the mountain valleys. Forums like this didn’t exist, and the internet was much more in its infancy, so the snowfall and snowpack data weren’t quite as pervasive. In that sense I was blissfully ignorant of life in the mountains. As someone who enjoys documenting and experiencing winter weather, there’s no question that it’s fun to live in an area where it can easily snow 100+ days per season, and as a skier it’s hard to put a price on living just a few minutes from slopes with 300”+ of snow. But, living in Burlington definitely has its advantages too – being able to pop out of the house and quickly walk or bike to the waterfront as well all the restaurants, bars, shops, theaters, etc. For some folks, living in Burlington is actually a perfect fit. There are those skiers I know that would prefer to have their weather in the mountains and not deal with it at their house. In that respect, living in Burlington can be a lot like living in the lower valleys of the Rockies, Sierra, Cascades, etc. – it can be pounding snow in the mountains ten miles away and you don’t have to deal with it at your house at all. That’s not great for someone who lives and breathes the winter weather experience, but it’s pretty neat to have that option. Personally I’d say it’s a win either way, since we’re talking about the snowiest place in the U.S. east of the Rockies, the snow vibe is pretty pervasive throughout the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 GFS got really flat with the trough, but gets some SOS moisture in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 All I can say is something highly unusual is trying to engineer its self in the late middle range/extended time intervals - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.