Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Lol at 1 day change in a 2 week lead for 30 days... Not a 1 day change rather an evolution, not saying its right but definite Ens support. This has a 11/87 feel to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Wxrisk.com *** ALERT ** ALERT ** some POTENTIAL for MAJOR early season SNOWSTORM for GREAT LAKES region PROBABILITY OF EVENT (POE) happening as of 10/20/12 on event on a scale of 1-10 ... 4.5 or 5 which for 10 days out is pretty good MAX EVENT IMPACT or XEI (worst case) on a scale of 1-10 8.5 or 9.... given that its late OCT if this happens several inches of snow in GL region would STILL be a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 wow, no shister Ryan! you know, one "could" argue this is a trend toward the CMC but gosh it is so early in this game and that is really f far out there in time man. I tell you what, if something like a purer phase in results ... eh, it'll never happen. Mainly because Kevin wants it too so bad - lol... yeah Tip you definitely don't want this to happen. We can tell from your posts today that you've jumped on the train, too I was thinking when it first came out though on the CMC... its like a Typhoon Tip dream storm. You could write hours of prose on a solution like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 lol... yeah Tip you definitely don't want this to happen. We can tell from your posts today that you've jumped on the train, too I was thinking when it first came out though on the CMC... its like a Typhoon Tip dream storm. You could write hours of prose on a solution like that. I would lean towards a high QPF transistion storm with some good winds , a screaming soueaster? Winter is coming to you Halloweenish , probably settling in for a long stay with the usual brief warmups, you are in the goods this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 lol... yeah Tip you definitely don't want this to happen. We can tell from your posts today that you've jumped on the train, too I was thinking when it first came out though on the CMC... its like a Typhoon Tip dream storm. You could write hours of prose on a solution like that. What was that site with all the VT winter data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Some weenie ensemble members in the EC ensemble right now. What DT means is the anafrontal precip behind the coldfront and with a negatively tilted trough. It's not out of the question parts of the GL region get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 lol... yeah Tip you definitely don't want this to happen. We can tell from your posts today that you've jumped on the train, too I was thinking when it first came out though on the CMC... its like a Typhoon Tip dream storm. You could write hours of prose on a solution like that. Lol - that's why I'm not. I saw that Euro solution from (I think it was 12z yesterday, or perhaps 00z the night before) and thought, "nope, not clever - nice try". The the CMC came out, "still not caving". try and try as it must, I will not be suckered into being a victim of its evil games - ahahaha. actually, in all seriousness, although exciting (I'm not brain dead to the obvious) I really have no desire to have to endure a CMC aftermath. Let's think of that in discrete probability terms. Having an accelerating Category 2 hurricane would likely do what we all know, pretty much take out the entire infrastructure from BOS-ALB. BUT, then having a powerful cold front wrap in behind with freezing air? - I don't have any ambitions on something like that. No thanks. Think of this, if serious enough you wouldn't be "on-line" for over week or more; kind of makes the novelty of celebrating an enormous event with a community of kin thinkers futile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I would lean towards a high QPF transistion storm with some good winds , a screaming soueaster? Winter is coming to you Halloweenish , probably settling in for a long stay with the usual brief warmups, you are in the goods this year. This is naturally the more probable outcome - good thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Some weenie ensemble members in the EC ensemble right now. What DT means is the anafrontal precip behind the coldfront and with a negatively tilted trough. It's not out of the question parts of the GL region get snow. Yeah, I know he's talking about a different system then we are, and I know it's certainly possible, I just found it kind of ridiculous to post at 10+ day lead time like that, but I guess its not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Some weenie ensemble members in the EC ensemble right now. What DT means is the anafrontal precip behind the coldfront and with a negatively tilted trough. It's not out of the question parts of the GL region get snow. 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Yeah, I know he's talking about a different system then we are, and I know it's certainly possible, I just found it kind of ridiculous to post at 10+ day lead time like that, but I guess its not surprising. Probably trying to generate a little traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Probably trying to generate a little traffic. His winter forecast is on fB but when I clicked I got a warning from FB about it being a dangerous site, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Getting very pumped for the winter. 2004-05, 1976-77, 1993-94 combo. Wood, not Kevin either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Leaves :axe: :axe: :axe: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Currently for my Tropical Meteorology class I am doing a project on the 1938 Hurricane. Doing a good overview and looking at the destruction it caused. But I am also want to present the synoptic pattern that allowed for the system to turn to the northwest instead of turning out to sea. And when I was viewing the images everyone posted of last nights GGEM, my first thought was wow, where did someone find images of the '38 storm with that much detail. Then I read that it was from last nights GGEM and went "o ****" but reality has sunk in. good model porn though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Currently for my Tropical Meteorology class I am doing a project on the 1938 Hurricane. Doing a good overview and looking at the destruction it caused. But I am also want to present the synoptic pattern that allowed for the system to turn to the northwest instead of turning out to sea. And when I was viewing the images everyone posted of last nights GGEM, my first thought was wow, where did someone find images of the '38 storm with that much detail. Then I read that it was from last nights GGEM and went "o ****" but reality has sunk in. good model porn though. Did you look at the 20th century reanalysis data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Did you look at the 20th century reanalysis data? Yes. I have grown to love that site. It is very fun to play with and plug in different dates of historical storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Yes. I have grown to love that site. It is very fun to play with and plug in different dates of historical storms. It's awesome. They did a really nice job with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The GGEM is quite the weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Currently for my Tropical Meteorology class I am doing a project on the 1938 Hurricane. Doing a good overview and looking at the destruction it caused. But I am also want to present the synoptic pattern that allowed for the system to turn to the northwest instead of turning out to sea. And when I was viewing the images everyone posted of last nights GGEM, my first thought was wow, where did someone find images of the '38 storm with that much detail. Then I read that it was from last nights GGEM and went "o ****" but reality has sunk in. good model porn though. I know LOL, seems the GGEM gives us one of those every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I know LOL, seems the GGEM gives us one of those every year. Sometimes... 1 or 2 a month. The GGEM does like to go crazy with these kinds of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Sometimes... 1 or 2 a month. The GGEM does like to go crazy with these kinds of storms. GGEM can make the KFS look like the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 GGEM can make the KFS look like the Euro ensembles. lol no kidding I'm trying to save some money so I'll be able to pay the natural gas bill after this week's KFS forecast chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 GGEM can make the KFS look like the Euro ensembles. LOL, speaking of Euro Ens, got to be some GGEM weenie solutions in that mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The GGEM is quite the weather porn. What is your site of choice for viewing the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 What is your site of choice for viewing the GGEM? Ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 What is your site of choice for viewing the GGEM? Ewall graphics suck try here http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=UV10m&hh=180&comp=1&runb=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=UV10m&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Ewall Why is it that 00Z goes to 240 hr and 12z only goes to 180 hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Ewall graphics suck try here http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 Really? I love the E-Wall I use it probably just as much as anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Really? I love the E-Wall I use it probably just as much as anything else Many many more parameters for GGem on the Meteosite., EWALL other model data it is Ok but lots of sites are more impressive, they need to catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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