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Mid to late October disco/banter thread.


CoastalWx

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:lmao:

Wxrisk.com

‎*** ALERT ** ALERT ** some POTENTIAL for MAJOR early season SNOWSTORM for GREAT LAKES region

PROBABILITY OF EVENT (POE) happening as of 10/20/12 on event on a scale of 1-10 ... 4.5 or 5 which for 10 days out is pretty good

MAX EVENT IMPACT or XEI (worst case) on a scale of 1-10

8.5 or 9.... given that its late OCT if this happens several inches of snow in GL region would STILL be a big deal

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wow, no shister Ryan! you know, one "could" argue this is a trend toward the CMC but gosh it is so early in this game and that is really f far out there in time man. I tell you what, if something like a purer phase in results ...

eh, it'll never happen. Mainly because Kevin wants it too so bad -

lol... yeah Tip you definitely don't want this to happen. We can tell from your posts today that you've jumped on the train, too ;)

I was thinking when it first came out though on the CMC... its like a Typhoon Tip dream storm. You could write hours of prose on a solution like that.

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lol... yeah Tip you definitely don't want this to happen. We can tell from your posts today that you've jumped on the train, too ;)

I was thinking when it first came out though on the CMC... its like a Typhoon Tip dream storm. You could write hours of prose on a solution like that.

I would lean towards a high QPF transistion storm with some good winds , a screaming soueaster? Winter is coming to you Halloweenish , probably settling in for a long stay with the usual brief warmups, you are in the goods this year.

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lol... yeah Tip you definitely don't want this to happen. We can tell from your posts today that you've jumped on the train, too ;)

I was thinking when it first came out though on the CMC... its like a Typhoon Tip dream storm. You could write hours of prose on a solution like that.

What was that site with all the VT winter data?

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lol... yeah Tip you definitely don't want this to happen. We can tell from your posts today that you've jumped on the train, too ;)

I was thinking when it first came out though on the CMC... its like a Typhoon Tip dream storm. You could write hours of prose on a solution like that.

Lol - that's why I'm not. I saw that Euro solution from (I think it was 12z yesterday, or perhaps 00z the night before) and thought, "nope, not clever - nice try". The the CMC came out, "still not caving".

try and try as it must, I will not be suckered into being a victim of its evil games - ahahaha.

actually, in all seriousness, although exciting (I'm not brain dead to the obvious) I really have no desire to have to endure a CMC aftermath. Let's think of that in discrete probability terms. Having an accelerating Category 2 hurricane would likely do what we all know, pretty much take out the entire infrastructure from BOS-ALB. BUT, then having a powerful cold front wrap in behind with freezing air? - I don't have any ambitions on something like that. No thanks.

Think of this, if serious enough you wouldn't be "on-line" for over week or more; kind of makes the novelty of celebrating an enormous event with a community of kin thinkers futile.

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I would lean towards a high QPF transistion storm with some good winds , a screaming soueaster? Winter is coming to you Halloweenish , probably settling in for a long stay with the usual brief warmups, you are in the goods this year.

This is naturally the more probable outcome - good thinking.

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Some weenie ensemble members in the EC ensemble right now.

What DT means is the anafrontal precip behind the coldfront and with a negatively tilted trough. It's not out of the question parts of the GL region get snow.

Yeah, I know he's talking about a different system then we are, and I know it's certainly possible, I just found it kind of ridiculous to post at 10+ day lead time like that, but I guess its not surprising.

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Currently for my Tropical Meteorology class I am doing a project on the 1938 Hurricane. Doing a good overview and looking at the destruction it caused. But I am also want to present the synoptic pattern that allowed for the system to turn to the northwest instead of turning out to sea. And when I was viewing the images everyone posted of last nights GGEM, my first thought was wow, where did someone find images of the '38 storm with that much detail. Then I read that it was from last nights GGEM and went "o ****" but reality has sunk in. good model porn though.

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Currently for my Tropical Meteorology class I am doing a project on the 1938 Hurricane. Doing a good overview and looking at the destruction it caused. But I am also want to present the synoptic pattern that allowed for the system to turn to the northwest instead of turning out to sea. And when I was viewing the images everyone posted of last nights GGEM, my first thought was wow, where did someone find images of the '38 storm with that much detail. Then I read that it was from last nights GGEM and went "o ****" but reality has sunk in. good model porn though.

Did you look at the 20th century reanalysis data?

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Currently for my Tropical Meteorology class I am doing a project on the 1938 Hurricane. Doing a good overview and looking at the destruction it caused. But I am also want to present the synoptic pattern that allowed for the system to turn to the northwest instead of turning out to sea. And when I was viewing the images everyone posted of last nights GGEM, my first thought was wow, where did someone find images of the '38 storm with that much detail. Then I read that it was from last nights GGEM and went "o ****" but reality has sunk in. good model porn though.

I know LOL, seems the GGEM gives us one of those every year.

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