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Mid to late October disco/banter thread.


CoastalWx

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Yeah a neat perspective on it. I don't know what the anomalies are, but that has to be a highly anomalous tropopause height WRT being so low.

I think those kind of PV streamers/filaments are pretty common causes of tropical cyclone genesis in the late season down in the Caribbean. I've seen some papers on it.

Adam would probably be a better resource than me on this lol

But I think the added baroclinic assist from one of these PV streamers can get the ball rolling on cyclone genesis with an existing low level vorticity center.

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I think those kind of PV streamers/filaments are pretty common causes of tropical cyclone genesis in the late season down in the Caribbean. I've seen some papers on it.

Adam would probably be a better resource than me on this lol

But I think the added baroclinic assist from one of these PV streamers can get the ball rolling on cyclone genesis with an existing low level vorticity center.

Yeah that's how we get the homebrew type stuff.

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The whole evolution of the storm is pretty fascinating. As it is now, it's a wave moving across and basically interacting with the ITCZ. You can see this at 700mb. But at 500 and above, a trough dips down from the Gulf of Mexico and boom...convection erupts. The whole system begins to deepen and a huge poleward outflow channel forms from diabatic heating and is something like 80kts. Huge for that area. It basically helps sustain and intensify the system by venting it. Pretty cool.

Mm, straight up off q- vector forcing (-omega) off that trough dip. That may actually be a critical aspect to this development in terms of feed-back on where it interacts with the westerlies. The GGEM seems to want to dump that trough parcel into Gulf, exciting your polarward evac channel via diffluent q's and all that, but already there is significant divergence over the convection, on -going.

- anyway, that trough dump into the Gulf is key for this/these GGEM solutions to succeed, because the presence of that then lower some of the geopotential heights to where the more important fuller latitude trough amplifies it can dig in and hook in the TC. It doesn't seem the other guidance have that intermediate trough incursion into the Gulf though.

Interesting.

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Bob Hart's cyclone phase space off the GFS has the storm strengthening as a hybrid. A warm seclusion actually.

What's his definition of warm seclusion, something that wraps in high theta-e air and then cuts the warm air off in the center? That happens even in winter storms, basically mature phase and occlusion.

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What's his definition of warm seclusion, something that wraps in high theta-e air and then cuts the warm air off in the center? That happens even in winter storms.

Asymmetric warm core. So is frontal in nature but is still warm core. And yeah you get it with mature extra tropical cyclones too.

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Tippy... you can see on the Euro after 200 hours how the moisture from the storm likely gets entrained into the developing negatively tilted trough over CONUS. If that thing meanders near the Bahamas it would be rocketed into the Mid Atlantic.

yeah, i actually hadn't seen beyond 144 - ha... i was imagining where that was heading, but sure - something is suggested there. huh - one must wonder.

That could be a NY Bite water nightmare hook that shows up in literary warnings and works.

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wow, no shister Ryan! you know, one "could" argue this is a trend toward the CMC but gosh it is so early in this game and that is really f far out there in time man. I tell you what, if something like a purer phase in results ...

eh, it'll never happen. Mainly because Kevin wants it too so bad -

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Asymmetric warm core. So is frontal in nature but is still warm core. And yeah you get it with mature extra tropical cyclones too.

The unfortunately entitled "perfect storm" was an example of a complete phase spectrum reversal. Pure cold core cyclone devoured Gracey,and then spun over the G-string...eventually it shed the baroclinic features and a new hurricane resulted. Few remember this because the cold --> hybrid part of it was when it was doing all its damange. BUT, when the system's core went warm, the gradient imploded closer to the center and it lost a lot of gradient farther way from the axis when the happened. At least some of the storm's abatement along was attributed to core condense.

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Tropical connection seems likely, moisture wise, CPC anamolies point to high QPF event before colder turn.

Agreed. If that 500 mb trough digs and goes negative like the Euro indicates watch out for flooding somewhere with tropical moisture involved.

The unfortunately entitled "perfect storm" was an example of a complete phase spectrum reversal. Pure cold core cyclone devoured Gracey,and then spun over the G-string...eventually it shed the baroclinic features and a new hurricane resulted. Few remember this because the cold --> hybrid part of it was when it was doing all its damange. BUT, when the system's core went warm, the gradient imploded closer to the center and it lost a lot of gradient farther way from the axis when the happened. At least some of the storm's abatement along was attributed to core condense.

That big baroclinic low off Newfoundland is progged to be pretty large by the Euro. May have to deal with some type of fujiwhara influence with teh Caribbean TC once it moves into the Atlantic.

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Agreed. If that 500 mb trough digs and goes negative like the Euro indicates watch out for flooding somewhere with tropical moisture involved.

That big baroclinic low off Newfoundland is progged to be pretty large by the Euro. May have to deal with some type of fujiwhara influence with teh Caribbean TC once it moves into the Atlantic.

Yea that LP is a monster, sandwich time. Should be an interesting week of weather watching . D+7-11 analogs are pretty frigid too.

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Yea that LP is a monster, sandwich time. Should be an interesting week of weather watching . D+7-11 analogs are pretty frigid too.

Yeah I like the changes. I'd be content with a 7 day warm spell followed by a big storm to snap the pattern.

Will be fun to watch the tropics too.

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