Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Wow - what a wet dream of a 00z CMC run THAT was - yikes. What's interesting is that the older Euro run - I think I pasted it back on page 13 or 15 or something, has a day 10 that extrapolated nearly perfectly into this CMC solution. Of course, the Euro's more recent run really has 0 interaction between any TC and the N stream. Obviously the odds of a 00z CMC are among the remoter of possibilities to put it lightly, but you know that (1804?) these things can rarely happen. This CMC run is not snowing though - not sure where that interpretation is coming from. It keeps the warm core E of the baroclinic axis, then as the cyclone lifts N of the area, cold frontogenesis during phase transition jolts the darkened, powerless country side into a freeze - oh great. it was a joke Tippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I keep seeing this and wonder if/when things will break more abruptly colder in the models compared to this hinting, taunting thing where it looks ominous but then backs off upon an ensuing cycle, or some other model is just out of phase. But a pinned -NAO of nearly -2SD spatial-temporally tandem with an impressive +2 and more SD recovery in the PNA is a whopper teleconnector convergence. It gets better when considering that the -WPO is equally pinned and that "should" send the AB phase of the NP transmitted - that may be why we have good slice of -EPO thrown in there. But more importantly, the -EPO appears timed wonderfully for a PNA download into the middle latitudes. Mind you, this is all per the GFS cluster. The Euro may or may not agree with these different fields. I'd like to see a quantity/quality number set off the Euro for the EPO, PNA, NAO, and etc... but never have other than what I can gather word of mouth by NCEP discussions, or turbo geek members of the boards who are nerdly enough to actually spend the money to purchase the over-rated products - haha. j/k. But, the sensible weather timing for all this above really keeps targeting the first week of November...perhaps toward the 10th, for snow making into the 40th parallel, east of 100 longitude. I almost want to start my own thread replete with annotations. Well it does look like the Euro operational and ensemble want to take the MJO near phase 2 in the next 1-2 weeks. The GFS ensemble is similar although it has a weaker signal in phase 2 than the Euro. According to composites from the CPC for the OND period, phase 2 would favor colder temperatures in much of the Eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Be very wary of southerly flow in ECT, just sayin lol seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 70F, beautiful June day. Tons of leaves to take care of...maybe tomorrow. Wachusett Applefest and brew sampling ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Sun just came out here. Looks like a nice October day now incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Man is it hot out...sunny and it's got to be near 70F at 1000ft in Stowe. Humid too. We are going to put up a huge positive departure with a +15 overnight and close to +15 on the high so far. Should be 55/34 and looking like 70/49 so far. Hard to believe a week ago we were watching upslope snow showers fall to the valley floor and now we are having normal temps for early June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 lol seriously LL joke, let it go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Holy torch this week! Haven't really looked at much of anything but jut starting to get into things before work today. LL is going to be drunk for 7 straight days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 What a torch right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Holy torch this week! Haven't really looked at much of anything but jut starting to get into things before work today. LL is going to be drunk for 7 straight days! Even up here, the highs may be muted from NE winds for 2 or 3 days, but nights will be milder, and then we may torch towards the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Looks like the "can'tnadian" is up to tricks on the 12z run : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 72.3 with mixed sun and clouds at the hacienda. Normal high is 61 according to ABC 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Even up here, the highs may be muted from NE winds for 2 or 3 days, but nights will be milder, and then we may torch towards the weekend. Climo is 37/59 at BDL. Good luck getting AOB next 7 here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Holy torch this week! Haven't really looked at much of anything but jut starting to get into things before work today. LL is going to be drunk for 7 straight days! It seems a kind of mock Indian Summer. may not fit by technical definition, but we did just come through a period of relative negative anomalies, so seeing a run like this after the fact and after peak foliage (and we did have a total of 3 frost and 1 freeze night up here in ne Mass), does fit to a degree - no pun. Looks like 12z CMC still fantasizing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Looks like the "can'tnadian" is up to tricks on the 12z run : We will have to watch the Caribbean closely. I wouldn't rule out some sort of fun hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Well it does look like the Euro operational and ensemble want to take the MJO near phase 2 in the next 1-2 weeks. The GFS ensemble is similar although it has a weaker signal in phase 2 than the Euro. According to composites from the CPC for the OND period, phase 2 would favor colder temperatures in much of the Eastern US. .... Yeah, this is certainly the other component to this, and that the equatorial indices also appearing well timed. The recurving TCs in the West Pac also probably contributing but it seems operationally the models are having trouble with these latent heat transports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 We will have to watch the Caribbean closely. I wouldn't rule out some sort of fun hybrid. Agreed - there are other indicators that something at all will be there - heh, good start. There is disturbed weather presently, noted by TPC. They've hashed it out in orange now. Also, the experimental Roundy Probabilities product has had a small region of positive genesis in that area for some time. I think it's less a question whether a TC evolves, but as usual, the interaction with the westerlies is either eye-candy or less at this range in the models - duh. One thing, the CMC has a bit of a "buckle" bias in it's middle range, where it tends to too much meridional nature to the flow - that gives a nod back to the flatter appeal of the 00z Euro, 12z GFS...etc. It is interesting that one prior run of the Euro did imply - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Climo is 37/59 at BDL. Good luck getting AOB next 7 here lol nah...CTBlizz says below normal this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Its just a beautiful mid Fall day 70F, beautiful June day. Tons of leaves to take care of...maybe tomorrow. Wachusett Applefest and brew sampling ahead. Indeed it is. Alternating sun/clouds, but too warm. I gave up dealing with leaves after paying someone to do it two years ago. Best money I ever spent. 68/50. We will have to watch the Caribbean closely. I wouldn't rule out some sort of fun hybrid. Will it be a trick or a treat....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 The whole evolution of the storm is pretty fascinating. As it is now, it's a wave moving across and basically interacting with the ITCZ. You can see this at 700mb. But at 500 and above, a trough dips down from the Gulf of Mexico and boom...convection erupts. The whole system begins to deepen and a huge poleward outflow channel forms from diabatic heating and is something like 80kts. Huge for that area. It basically helps sustain and intensify the system by venting it. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 nah...CTBlizz says below normal this week. not sure why anyone pays attention to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 GGEM site with some new great graphics http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=UV10m&hh=180&comp=1&runb=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=UV10m&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 The whole evolution of the storm is pretty fascinating. As it is now, it's a wave moving across and basically interacting with the ITCZ. You can see this at 700mb. But at 500 and above, a trough dips down from the Gulf of Mexico and boom...convection erupts. The whole system begins to deepen and a huge poleward outflow channel forms from diabatic heating and is something like 80kts. Huge for that area. It basically helps sustain and intensify the system by venting it. Pretty cool. Yeah I was noticing that earlier. Take a look from a PV perspective and you can see on the GFS a filament of high PV air (shown here is higher pressures on the dynamic tropopause) heads through the central Gulf and toward Cuba and it lets the thing go to town once it gets a little baroclinic assist. http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2012102012&t=gfs004&r=TA&d=TS As you mentioned the downstream ridging explodes as does the storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 62-63 was cold but not especially snowy where I then lived in NNJ, and included to lowest wind chill I experienced before moving to Fort Kent, on 12/31/62 with temp -5 and winds gusting into the 60s (NYC's strongest ever Dec winds.) Only time I'll ever see 6 ft drifts made from 2" of snow, or 2 ft diameter oaks ripped from semi-frozen ground. For BGR, it was their snowiest winter on record, starting and ending with 7" storms - Oct and May - and the monster blizzard whose backside produced those huge wind chills in NNJ. Yes. So much snow potential and yet so little yield. I also was in NNJ, a junior in hs. Wasn't that the year of the boreal game for the nfl championship ( pre SB days) where the Giants lost to Green Bay in brutal conditions at Yankee Stadium?...around the same date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Why does anyone put more than token credence in jb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Yeah I was noticing that earlier. Take a look from a PV perspective and you can see on the GFS a filament of high PV air (shown here is higher pressures on the dynamic tropopause) heads through the central Gulf and toward Cuba and it lets the thing go to town once it gets a little baroclinic assist. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=TA&d=TS As you mentioned the downstream ridging explodes as does the storm itself. Yeah a neat perspective on it. I don't know what the anomalies are, but that has to be a highly anomalous tropopause height WRT being so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Why does anyone put more than token credence in jb? because telling people what they want to hear matters more than a track record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Why does anyone put more than token credence in jb? He says what the weenies want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Why does anyone put more than token credence in jb? He does make me check things out, for instance this AM, big flip on CFS2 for Novie, like the signals Jerry. I was asking about 62 winter, meaning 61/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Triple Phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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