Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Here is a good question for the folks who have a fetish on TWC's naming winter storms. 952 H Scooter running up East Coast rapidly transistioning ET to a white Hurricane, does TWC change the name to Athena? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Actually got the Tolland KU finger yesterday with not much rain here locally. Still very mild out. I was awakened by lots of thunder around 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Also, early snow this year should be less disastrous given the much faster foliage change/drop this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I was awakened by lots of thunder around 4am. I woke last night to the sound of thunder How far off I sat and wondered Started humming a song from 1962 Ain't it funny how the night moves When you just don't seem to have as much to lose Strange how the night moves With autumn closing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Among the best! I was doing them 35 years ago the first time I heard that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Well as modeled, I think this has the potential to go beyond the first week. To clarify, could...not should go beyond the first week. The reason being is that the -NAO and the modeled retrogression potential of the AK trough forcing a +PNA potentially, albeit weak. Some models do try to weaken the MJO and bring it east and into the circle of death, so that is something that could cause an early breakdown of the pattern. It's also important to consider the New England region, not just SNE when Kevin is throwing the S-word around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 I was awakened by lots of thunder around 4am. Nothing here. Good light show though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Well as modeled, I think this has the potential to go beyond the first week. To clarify, could...not should go beyond the first week. The reason being is that the -NAO and the modeled retrogression potential of the AK trough forcing a +PNA potentially, albeit weak. Some models do try to weaken the MJO and bring it east and into the circle of death, so that is something that could cause an early breakdown of the pattern. It's also important to consider the New England region, not just SNE when Kevin is throwing the S-word around. NNE Interior flakeage and LES seems pretty much a lock in that pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Among the best! I was doing them 35 years ago the first time I heard that. How was 62 winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 ALso with that tropical gyre down there, it's quite possible the good colder air waits until closer to 10/30 or 10/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 ALso with that tropical gyre down there, it's quite possible the good colder air waits until closer to 10/30 or 10/31. yeah few things suggest patience...action down there potentially keeping SE / W Atlantic heights a bit pumped another factor to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Among the best! I was doing them 35 years ago the first time I heard that. Segar, He had some great songs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 66/64 yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Starting to gather steam weenies.. Can you feel it? @BigJoeBastardi: Weatherbell been saying that last storm of the season will come out of the caribbean and clouds are starting to gather http://t.co/vOWdxGKv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Starting to gather steam weenies.. Can you feel it? @BigJoeBastardi: Weatherbell been saying that last storm of the season will come out of the caribbean and clouds are starting to gather http://t.co/vOWdxGKv More like Weeniebell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 He did just point out the huge flip on CFS2 November monthly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 How was 62 winter? 62-63 was cold but not especially snowy where I then lived in NNJ, and included to lowest wind chill I experienced before moving to Fort Kent, on 12/31/62 with temp -5 and winds gusting into the 60s (NYC's strongest ever Dec winds.) Only time I'll ever see 6 ft drifts made from 2" of snow, or 2 ft diameter oaks ripped from semi-frozen ground. For BGR, it was their snowiest winter on record, starting and ending with 7" storms - Oct and May - and the monster blizzard whose backside produced those huge winds in NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Heavy, heavy liquid sunshine here, where's the rain that was promised for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Last winter put Jerry over the edge. http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/11/14373477-man-cooking-squirrel-for-lunch-sparks-fire-that-destroys-eight-apartments?lite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Segar, He had some great songs Indeed he did--my wife hates it when I pull out his cd's. Meanwhile, out to enjoy the warmth. 64/58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Last winter put Jerry over the edge. http://usnews.nbcnew...apartments?lite Last winter Jerry was dining with the squirrels, This year he has there pelts hanging on his fence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Its just a beautiful mid Fall day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Dreary Drizzle, Muggy crappy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Dreary Drizzle, Muggy crappy day in and out clouds but clearing winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Dreary Drizzle, Muggy crappy day Depends where you are - ha. It's partly sunny here now, more sun than cloud, with temps nearing 70. With the DP around 60 or so, and the light wind, and the tropical look to the sky, it's actually fantastic against a backdrop of vibrant colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 TPC upgrades Caribbean again ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Depends where you are - ha. It's partly sunny here now, more sun than cloud, with temps nearing 70. With the DP around 60 or so, and the light wind, and the tropical look to the sky, it's actually fantastic against a backdrop of vibrant colors. Yeah up here in Maine its wet, Not much color or leaves left here, Clearing late this pm, With a wonderful day on tap tomorrow, High close to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 67 LL texted me says its hot golfing, there is a nice breeze here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Wow - what a wet dream of a 00z CMC run THAT was - yikes. What's interesting is that the older Euro run - I think I pasted it back on page 13 or 15 or something, has a day 10 that extrapolated nearly perfectly into this CMC solution. Of course, the Euro's more recent run really has 0 interaction between any TC and the N stream. Obviously the odds of a 00z CMC are among the remoter of possibilities to put it lightly, but you know that (1804?) these things can rarely happen. This CMC run is not snowing though - not sure where that interpretation is coming from. It keeps the warm core E of the baroclinic axis, then as the cyclone lifts N of the area, cold frontogenesis during phase transition jolts the darkened, powerless country side into a freeze - oh great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 I keep seeing this and wonder if/when things will break more abruptly colder in the models compared to this hinting, taunting thing where it looks ominous but then backs off upon an ensuing cycle, or some other model is just out of phase. But a pinned -NAO of nearly -2SD spatial-temporally tandem with an impressive +2 and more SD recovery in the PNA is a whopper teleconnector convergence. It gets better when considering that the -WPO is equally pinned and that "should" send the AB phase of the NP transmitted - that may be why we have good slice of -EPO thrown in there. But more importantly, the -EPO appears timed wonderfully for a PNA download into the middle latitudes. Mind you, this is all per the GFS cluster. The Euro may or may not agree with these different fields. I'd like to see a quantity/quality number set off the Euro for the EPO, PNA, NAO, and etc... but never have other than what I can gather word of mouth by NCEP discussions, or turbo geek members of the boards who are nerdly enough to actually spend the money to purchase the over-rated products - haha. j/k. But, the sensible weather timing for all this above really keeps targeting the first week of November...perhaps toward the 10th, for snow making into the 40th parallel, east of 100 longitude. I almost want to start my own thread replete with annotations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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