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Mid to late October disco/banter thread.


CoastalWx

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Well as modeled, I think this has the potential to go beyond the first week. To clarify, could...not should go beyond the first week. The reason being is that the -NAO and the modeled retrogression potential of the AK trough forcing a +PNA potentially, albeit weak. Some models do try to weaken the MJO and bring it east and into the circle of death, so that is something that could cause an early breakdown of the pattern. It's also important to consider the New England region, not just SNE when Kevin is throwing the S-word around.

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Well as modeled, I think this has the potential to go beyond the first week. To clarify, could...not should go beyond the first week. The reason being is that the -NAO and the modeled retrogression potential of the AK trough forcing a +PNA potentially, albeit weak. Some models do try to weaken the MJO and bring it east and into the circle of death, so that is something that could cause an early breakdown of the pattern. It's also important to consider the New England region, not just SNE when Kevin is throwing the S-word around.

NNE Interior flakeage and LES seems pretty much a lock in that pattern

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How was 62 winter?

62-63 was cold but not especially snowy where I then lived in NNJ, and included to lowest wind chill I experienced before moving to Fort Kent, on 12/31/62 with temp -5 and winds gusting into the 60s (NYC's strongest ever Dec winds.) Only time I'll ever see 6 ft drifts made from 2" of snow, or 2 ft diameter oaks ripped from semi-frozen ground. For BGR, it was their snowiest winter on record, starting and ending with 7" storms - Oct and May - and the monster blizzard whose backside produced those huge winds in NNJ.

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Dreary Drizzle, Muggy crappy day

Depends where you are - ha. It's partly sunny here now, more sun than cloud, with temps nearing 70. With the DP around 60 or so, and the light wind, and the tropical look to the sky, it's actually fantastic against a backdrop of vibrant colors.

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Depends where you are - ha. It's partly sunny here now, more sun than cloud, with temps nearing 70. With the DP around 60 or so, and the light wind, and the tropical look to the sky, it's actually fantastic against a backdrop of vibrant colors.

Yeah up here in Maine its wet, Not much color or leaves left here, Clearing late this pm, With a wonderful day on tap tomorrow, High close to 60

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Wow - what a wet dream of a 00z CMC run THAT was - yikes.

What's interesting is that the older Euro run - I think I pasted it back on page 13 or 15 or something, has a day 10 that extrapolated nearly perfectly into this CMC solution.

Of course, the Euro's more recent run really has 0 interaction between any TC and the N stream.

Obviously the odds of a 00z CMC are among the remoter of possibilities to put it lightly, but you know that (1804?) these things can rarely happen. This CMC run is not snowing though - not sure where that interpretation is coming from. It keeps the warm core E of the baroclinic axis, then as the cyclone lifts N of the area, cold frontogenesis during phase transition jolts the darkened, powerless country side into a freeze - oh great.

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I keep seeing this and wonder if/when things will break more abruptly colder in the models compared to this hinting, taunting thing where it looks ominous but then backs off upon an ensuing cycle, or some other model is just out of phase. But a pinned -NAO of nearly -2SD spatial-temporally tandem with an impressive +2 and more SD recovery in the PNA is a whopper teleconnector convergence. It gets better when considering that the -WPO is equally pinned and that "should" send the AB phase of the NP transmitted - that may be why we have good slice of -EPO thrown in there. But more importantly, the -EPO appears timed wonderfully for a PNA download into the middle latitudes.

Mind you, this is all per the GFS cluster. The Euro may or may not agree with these different fields. I'd like to see a quantity/quality number set off the Euro for the EPO, PNA, NAO, and etc... but never have other than what I can gather word of mouth by NCEP discussions, or turbo geek members of the boards who are nerdly enough to actually spend the money to purchase the over-rated products - haha.

j/k.

But, the sensible weather timing for all this above really keeps targeting the first week of November...perhaps toward the 10th, for snow making into the 40th parallel, east of 100 longitude. I almost want to start my own thread replete with annotations.

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