dendrite Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 lol With the new climate regime why not go AN. You'll probably be right most of the time. 32 straight torchaliciously AN months at BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 32 straight torchaliciously AN months at BDR. BDR is the new DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 True..but in years like 02-03, 09-10, 10-11 they bust horribly. Technically they're probability outlooks. So if they say there's a 40% chance of AN temps they're conceding there's a 60% chance it will be normal or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 welp - good ole NCEP's finally released their outlook for eternity ... Really hoping i don't have to display this often............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 What a torch... people are going to be crying for their mamas. The ones in Florida will be too but for other reasons then warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 True..but in years like 02-03, 09-10, 10-11 they bust horribly. They've been pretty terrible the last 5 winters...'07-'08 through '10-'11 had cold anomalies over a significant portion of the CONUS and each year they had a furnace on the probability maps. The irony of last year is that they seemed to react to the previous 4 winters and actually forecasted some decent probabilities for below avg temps in the La Nina climo favored areas of the Great Lakes and N plains....then everyone got a blowtorch instead, lol. That was the one year they should have kept their furnace forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 They have trouble with .5 month lead time, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 JB will blow a gasket when he sees those maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 JB will blow a gasket when he sees those maps... So will Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 What a torch... people are going to be crying for their mamas. eh, i can think of one reason why they could be wrong - outside of the 30-year apparent GW that is... they don't seem to really include much AO consideration in that and one thing the 20 years of observation has repeatedly beaten over our heads is that our latitude's departures in the winter are almost entirely controlled by timing EPO/NAO perturbations against the Pac-N/A alignment - none of which can be predicted on seasonal time scales. It's just not possible given the state of the art. Hidden in the following chart but can be vetted with statistical analysis, is an ~ 20 year up or down periodicity with the Arctic Oscillation: what may or may not be readily observable above the depth of said stat analysis, is that the curve above is has in the last 5 years slipped back below 0 (yes, despite last year's raging boner of a +AO winter). it is obvious to note that the curve is a bumpy ride up and down the hills and valleys with local time-scaled anomalies...blah blah. but, that's important for equally obvious reasons in that if NCEP is indeed not formulating AO (and subtending EPO and NAO) domain(s) into their assessment than DUH! of course they are going to be warm. What the f else are they left with? the Pacific and the 30-year trend - brrr.. they more than less hint at this in #4 of their reasoning list: "4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION(NAO) AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE CONSIDERED LESS PREDICTABLE ON A SEASONAL TIMESCALE THAN ENSO." In little kid talk that means, 'since we have no f clue what the NAO and PNA will do this year, we are just going to go ahead and assume ENSO has control over everything; which in turn means the temperature tendencies'. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 They have trouble with .5 month lead time, meh. August was about the same as well. A bit more torchy, but we had the nice two week cool down and it came nowhere near the absolute blowtorch they were calling for for the entire country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Nice, colors exploded yesterday, lots of yellows and reds. 169 looks awesome in Canterbury. New Euro is an all day soaker for Sat. KFS has been telling Dendrite FS that all week and he keeps thinking he's picking pumpkins at the patch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 GFS is slowing down very slowly, while the euro has ever ticked so faster. As usual, some sort of a compromise always wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Those CPC maps are probability outlooks and heavily climo based too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 August was about the same as well. A bit more torchy, but we had the nice two week cool down and it came nowhere near the absolute blowtorch they were calling for for the entire country. They like to persistence forecast and then change when it's obvious. This seems like a textbook ENSO based outlook. Who knows but in the short term they blew the complete flip flop in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Dendrite might have to wade through mud, but his date in the pumpkin patch Saturday aftn with Eek will probably be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Dendrite might have to wade through mud, but his date in the pumpkin patch Saturday aftn with Eek will probably be ok. Rain until 2 or so here per Euro. Soaker for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Dendrite might have to wade through mud, but his date in the pumpkin patch Saturday aftn with Eek will probably be ok. Prancing and dancing thru a a field of pumpkins. Pumping the pumpkins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 KFS has been telling Dendrite FS that all week and he keeps thinking he's picking pumpkins at the patch You also said yesterday's Euro had wall-to-wall weekend rain when it had nothing of the sort here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 For reference, here are the last 5 winters in the CONUS...temp anomalies for DJF: 2007-2008: 2008-2009: 2009-2010: 2010-2011: 2011-2012: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 KFS has been telling Dendrite FS that all week and he keeps thinking he's picking pumpkins at the patch Euro keeps getting faster with the fropa. Most of the PM rain is left for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Dendrite might have to wade through mud, but his date in the pumpkin patch Saturday aftn with Eek will probably be ok. Luckily it's all pavement...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Euro keeps getting faster with the fropa. Most of the PM rain is left for Maine. Enjoy the mud and pumpkins at Pumpback this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Nice maps Will, with all the GW hawkers you would think every winter since 7/8 has been 11/12 style. Seeing words like new regime from Pro mets makes me cringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Now here's the CPC outlooks: 2007-2008: 2008-2009: 2009-2010: 2010-2011: 2011-2012: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Enjoy the mud and pumpkins at Pumpback this weekend You can say that again.....oh wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Enjoy the mud and pumpkins at Pumpback this weekend I'll take a lot of pics for you. Maybe I'll carve a CT Blizz style pumpkin...one with the old school TWC sleet graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 On the other hand, many long range outlooks from private vendors also were not the best. Summing it all up, we don't have a strong hold on long range outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I'll take a lot of pics for you. Maybe I'll carve a CT Blizz style pumpkin...one with the old school TWC sleet graphic. Peter piper picked a peck of pumped pumpkins at Pumpback Mtn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 12z ECMWF has backed off big time with next week's "warm-up." That appears to be the trend these days. Torches getting crimped and cooler trying to get a better foothold. Winter's on the way...and this year we'll have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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