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Mid to late October disco/banter thread.


CoastalWx

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It' look's abve normal to me in the extened NWS forecast even with my elevation as a factor:

Today Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Patchy fog. High near 65. Southeast wind 14 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

  • Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Patchy dense fog. Low around 54. South wind 7 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Saturday Patchy dense fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 69. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 8 to 13 mph in the morning.
  • Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44. West wind 6 to 9 mph.
  • Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. West wind 6 to 11 mph.
  • Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.
  • Monday Sunny, with a high near 62.
  • Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
  • Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.
  • Tuesday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 66.
  • Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
  • Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 63.
  • http://forecast.weat....38617164062498

That's just the fake forecast. The real forecast, for the "weather insiders" is the AFD, but don't tell anyone else 'cause it's a big secret! Seriously though, I expect next week to average about a +6, maybe a shade higher, in the BDL area. Not crazy warm, but definitely well above for at least the next week, and probably just enough to lock in another above normal month.

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Radar exploding. It's going to be wet today lol.

Beautiful synoptic lift overhead with impressive jet dynamics. Looks like the heaviest will set up from N NJ to CT where QG lift is strong and a band of strong boundary layer convergence has developed.

Yeah nice dynamics west. The GFS was too bullish here, but the little max neat srn CT worked out. Basically AWT.

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Yeah nice dynamics west. The GFS was too bullish here, but the little max neat srn CT worked out. Basically AWT.

Yup looks that way. You could see the models being too aggressive with developing rain east of the LLJ... strongest LLJ basically ripping up through NYC and not moving a whole lot next 6 hours.

Someone will be able to crush it with rain if we can get some persistent mesoscale forcing or convection to develop.

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Yup looks that way. You could see the models being too aggressive with developing rain east of the LLJ... strongest LLJ basically ripping up through NYC and not moving a whole lot next 6 hours.

Someone will be able to crush it with rain if we can get some persistent mesoscale forcing or convection to develop.

i've seen many southerly LLJ setups where the models had heavy precip here and i wound up watching most of it go to the west over PA

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54/53, +DZ here in Plymouth. Not much on radar but just went out for a run after my morning class and it was pretty gross out. Not bad weather for running though, although light drizzle would be better. After we get through today/tonight's rain and tomorrows above normal temps, looks like an awesome week of fall weather though. 60s down in SNE means upper 50s up here with lows around 40. Average up here at this point is probably something like 54/34? So definitely an above normal week, but should be nice.

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