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Mid to late October disco/banter thread.


CoastalWx

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My guess is the GFS may be a bit too far east with heavy rain tomorrow morning. Although some heavier elements may move up from the south over ern areas, best focus for heavy rain is NJ into western CT and western MA. Hudson valley area too. Just my guess. Some more might develop after 2pm or so and move into ern areas later in the day. Perhaps something to watch is a batch of heavy rain moving into the south coast from elevated convection.

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Man we are going to torch due to overnight lows over the next week or so.

Average at MVL is 56/34 today and dropping... coldest low temp in the next 7 days is a 39F next Tuesday night. Tomorrow night's low of 52F will be a nice +18, lol.

This period will probably average +5 to +8 across the NNE mountain valleys based on forecast and normals, and this will seal the deal on an above normal October.

However, the wet pattern that has emerged this fall is fantastic to see... lets keep the precipitation events going! Looks like we have SOS rains over the next 36 hours, and then towards the second half of the weekend we are left with NW flow upslope rain as the upper level low moves overhead and winds switch NW.

Rain and mild.

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Weeklies looked seasonable for the first half of November. Looked like an overall Aleutian height anomaly with coldest air sloshing down from east slopes of Canadian Rockies into nrn Plains.

Seasonable eh? Core of cold in the mid-west usually means cutters along the baroclinic zone. Probably something like above average temps, then rain and FROPA, then cold and dry. Repeat a few times until we can get the core of the cold further east.

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Seasonable eh? Core of cold in the mid-west usually means cutters along the baroclinic zone. Probably something like above average temps, then rain and FROPA, then cold and dry. Repeat a few times until we can get the core of the cold further east.

that is one thing last year didn't have alot of, CUTTERS, (at least i think NNE ski resorts enjoyed that aspect)

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Seasonable eh? Core of cold in the mid-west usually means cutters along the baroclinic zone. Probably something like above average temps, then rain and FROPA, then cold and dry. Repeat a few times until we can get the core of the cold further east.

It could be something like I mentioned a few days ago. You get a cutter, then the cold moves further east. Another low develops and perhaps is colder...followed by deeper push of cold east. Maybe it repeats, or perhaps we stay on the battle zone. You had the idea in your post. It's also possible that if we see any tropical cyclone move east, it locks in the cold for several days.

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