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Mid to late October disco/banter thread.


CoastalWx

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Growing season alive and well, I was shocked to come home and see another day lily in bloom, but very happy and a few more to go to!

Next ten days look awesome, some rain and lots of sun with well above normal temperatures, looks like once again I will be cutting lawns well into November!

That can't be. Are you pulling a skiMRG and posting pics from months ago? After that hard freeze that killed everything last weekend, how could anything grow in the permafrost known as the Connecticut shoreline?

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That can't be. Are you pulling a skiMRG and posting pics from months ago? After that hard freeze that killed everything last weekend, how could anything grow in the permafrost known as the Connecticut shoreline?

lol, well to be fair it did kill some less hearty flora, I noticed some morning glory's that were withered and a couple other species. The lawns are thriving right now, but we continue to lose light rapidly........looks like a great stretch of mid fall weather before a possible turn to cooler times in early November.

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Meanwhile the euro has other plans with the pattern nearing the end of the run...and I suspect it has a lot to do with the trop system it wants to develop in the carribean...brings it into florida at the end there and implies a rare westward track into the gulf in late october...im not thinking that is likely at all, but this system can certainly screw up our pattern expectations heading for the 11-15 day. Caution is urged.

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Meanwhile the euro has other plans with the pattern nearing the end of the run...and I suspect it has a lot to do with the trop system it wants to develop in the carribean...brings it into florida at the end there and implies a rare westward track into the gulf in late october...im not thinking that is likely at all, but this system can certainly screw up our pattern expectations heading for the 11-15 day. Caution is urged.

Yeah I mentioned that a couple of days ago. If that goes into the Gulf, the ridging would shift into the east. If it moves OTS, that pulls down the colder air. Even rain/wind for the EC is possible.

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Yeah I mentioned that a couple of days ago. If that goes into the Gulf, the ridging would shift into the east. If it moves OTS, that pulls down the colder air. Even rain/wind for the EC is possible.

Very true. My issue is, are we really going to see a westward moving trop/sub-trop storm in the northern gulf on the 28th of Oct? Seems unrealistic this late in the season, but I dont know off the top of my head how many, if any systems have done that before this late...

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Very true. My issue is, are we really going to see a westward moving trop/sub-trop storm in the northern gulf on the 28th of Oct? Seems unrealistic this late in the season, but I dont know off the top of my head how many, if any systems have done that before this late...

I think you answered your own question, highly unlikely. ENS will be out soon. Recurves FTW

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Very true. My issue is, are we really going to see a westward moving trop/sub-trop storm in the northern gulf on the 28th of Oct? Seems unrealistic this late in the season, but I dont know off the top of my head how many, if any systems have done that before this late...

I would guess the GOM track is not likely, just looking at the operation run of the euro. However it's this monsoon gyre with several closed contours at H5 developing. Check out the genesis of it, pretty cool. It may be the euro just getting too amped up and retrograding a little, but even something near the East coast could sort of put a halt to things for a few days.

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I would guess the GOM track is not likely, just looking at the operation run of the euro. However it's this monsoon gyre with several closed contours at H5 developing. Check out the genesis of it, pretty cool. It may be the euro just getting too amped up and retrograding a little, but even something near the East coast could sort of put a halt to things for a few days.

Yeah it is an interesting evolution for sure. That is a good last point there too, it doesnt have to roll under the ridge to screw up the expected pattern evolution a bit.

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Yeah it is an interesting evolution for sure. That is a good last point there too, it doesnt have to roll under the ridge to screw up the expected pattern evolution a bit.

I'm just so bored with this pattern right now. I would love for something interesting on the east coast.

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I'm just so bored with this pattern right now. I would love for something interesting on the east coast.

How about we just bring the cold air in western canada eastward with a 1040 high, and have this sub-tropical monsoon gyre phase into the trough and bring a snowicane...would that be something you might be interested in?

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How about we just bring the cold air in western canada eastward with a 1040 high, and have this sub-tropical monsoon gyre phase into the trough and bring a snowicane...would that be something you might be interested in?

Straight from the CTBlizz school of thinking..lol.

Sunny seasonable weather is nice, but I wouldn't mind a little action to mix it up.

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Yeah I mentioned that a couple of days ago. If that goes into the Gulf, the ridging would shift into the east. If it moves OTS, that pulls down the colder air. Even rain/wind for the EC is possible.

It's an interesting battle.

The PNA would like nothing better than an Indian Summer sort of ridge in the E, but the AO/NAO are really sending an impressive opposing signal.

Lots to iron out over the next while -

BTW, the Canadian has been all over this Caribbean to Bahama TC for several runs. The ECM is coming on board and the Roundy Probabilities product does have that region being is the seasons last hurrah of positive anomaly for genesis.

forintrlmod6.png

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FWIW the EC ensembles do send whatever the heck tries to form, out to sea.

Yes, and they trended stronger, or at least more members hopped on board the cold train heading into the eastern U.S. in the 11-15... ill dismiss the end of the euro op for the time being...nice pipeline of cold shown from western canada

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Yes, and they trended stronger, or at least more members hopped on board the cold train heading into the eastern U.S. in the 11-15... ill dismiss the end of the euro op for the time being...nice pipeline of cold shown from western canada

Yeah cool shot into the beginning of November anyways. I definitely want that GOA to move west or weaken. That could always try to being the PAC Jet into the CONUS.

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