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Mid to late October disco/banter thread.


CoastalWx

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So where are we going? Here is a look at the 00z GEFS and 00z EC ensembles at d10. I think this gives an idea heading into late October. Here is the difference.

Notice the difference in blocking up by the Aleutians. Why is this? Well it may be related to what's going on with tropical convection in the west PAC. While the tropical convection as modeled doesn't completely agree with the so called temp correlations in October and what is forecasted (a reason why I'm not a big fan of using these in the Fall), the physical forcing behind them could be enough to adjust the height anomalies. Also, there is a TC modeled in the carb on all models. If this moves east well off the East coast. this may act to pull down colder air from Canada. If it moves in the Gulf of Mexico, we may see ridging over the east. So, lots to think about here, and it could be an interesting end to October over parts of the US.

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That is a pretty significant difference in the placement with that High

Yeah that means a significant discrepancy exists. What I could see going forward, is a pattern that maybe features a cold shot..then maybe a low cutting west and then another cold shot..perhaps deeper than the one before...possibly something like that. Maybe the north central US takes the brunt of any colder air. I'm not sure of any extended cold or warm anomalies here, but we'll see what the 12z suite brings.

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Yeah that means a significant discrepancy exists. What I could see going forward, is a pattern that maybe features a cold shot..then maybe a low cutting west and then another cold shot..perhaps deeper than the one before...possibly something like that. Maybe the north central US takes the brunt of any colder air. I'm not sure of any extended cold or warm anomalies here, but we'll see what the 12z suite brings.

Well the 12z GFS at least still shows the trough just off the west coast and Torch city for the central and eastern us

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i would also venture that some of that blocking differential is because the Euro-based products (as far as I am aware) still carry a modest bias to dig heights SW under mid latitude ridges to prodigiously. that then feeds back on having a bigger height gradients and tendencies toward Rex configuraitons.

word on the tropics though! the whole thing gets moot in a hurry if a recurve resumes.

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i would also venture that some of that blocking differential is because the Euro-based products (as far as I am aware) still carry a modest bias to dig heights SW under mid latitude ridges to prodigiously. that then feeds back on having a bigger height gradients and tendencies toward Rex configuraitons.

word on the tropics though! the whole thing gets moot in a hurry if a recurve resumes.

Yea possible I suppose. We may see both model suites slowly relinquish their stubborness over the next few days.

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Well the 12z GFS at least still shows the trough just off the west coast and Torch city for the central and eastern us

I don't think that's what this particular run is showing. The lower tropospheric features/evolution would only allow for a transient warmer than normal period 2 to perhaps 3 days. Then, big cold for this early in the season predominates the la-la range.

I'd call that seasonally warmer than normal - code for not too extreme but yes above normal, and only 2 or 3 days

But that's this run per se -

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Any thoughts on the hour 192 range? The ECM and CMC show a ridge covering the eastern US while the GFS drops another trough and focuses the ridge over the central US. The GFS sometimes has these outlier long range solutions but I've seen plenty of cases as well where large ridges like the one on the ECM in the longer range fail to materialize.

I'm in the Hudson Valley but thought I'd join in at times on the pattern discussions. The Hudson Valley subforum is usually quiet anyways.

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12z ECMWF has backed off big time with next week's "warm-up."

yeah, nuances in the mid levels causing some confluence in S-SE Canada, and there's consequentially more surface polar type +pp forcing the boundary to wedge south under the northern rim of that transient ridge.

I also think the later middle range has too much digging SW with the heights along that outside runner moving down the WC - if so, that probably relays a false feedback into said ridge downstream to begin with. We'll see -

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LOL--an eternal blowtorch. God Forbid if that verifies-this place will be a mess beyond belief.

even the NCEF folks must chuckle at those maps...when have they ever put out anything but warmth?

lol

With the new climate regime why not go AN. You'll probably be right most of the time.

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