uncle W Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Its still more difficult for the entire northeast to cash in during Nina Winters (not that it can't happen), that was a conclusion of a WAF paper, gee its close to 10 years old now. I have stats I'll post later for Philly, but prior to 2010-11(back thru 1950) even moderate nina winters were wretched refuse around here. Yup that bullish -nao was the reason and once we lost it in February, there went the winter. I don't know if I can find the nao stats in some folder, but I posted it once on Jack's site when some other meteorologist insisted it wasn't so (no one we know), but I believe its around a 2:1 ratio to have the nao be negative or just recently negative to have a 6" or greater storm in PHL. If I can't find it and you promise me a dull stormdata month, I'll re-research it. Odd enso quirk, we (PHL) have done better in negative enso neutral winters with larger events than positive enso neutral winters since 1950. NYC winters with the ONI +0.2 to - 0.2 for DJF since we might end up neutral... season ave. temp. coldest 30 days. coldest winter temp. precipitation and snowfall Dec-Mar...snowfall and biggest snowfall... 1959-60...36.2...30.3.....9...14.43"...39.2"...14.5" 1960-61...31.7...24.6....-2...13.11"...54.7"...17.7" 1961-62...33.3...30.9.....4...12.37"...18.1".....6.2" 1978-79...32.7...26.0.....0...25.11"...29.4"...12.7" 1981-82...32.6...25.2.....0...16.57"...24.6".....9.6" 1989-90...35.7...25.3.....6...12.14"...13.4".....4.7" 1992-93...35.0...31.0.....7...18.39"...24.6"...10.2" 1993-94...31.2...23.5....-2...20.24"...53.4"...12.8" 2001-02...41.5...35.4...19.....8.44".....3.5".....3.0" average. 34.4...28.0.....5...16.64"...29.0"...10.2" long term- average...33.4...28.0.....4...14.30"...28.4"............ two great winters...1960-61 and 1993-94... two very good winters...1959-60 and 1992-93... two good winters...1981-82 and 1978-79... one mediocre winter...1961-62... one bad winter...1989-90... one horrilbe winter...2001-02... five of the nine winters had major storms 10" or more...Seven of nine 6" or more...Three winters had above average snowfall...another three had near average snowfall...Three had below average snowfall...five of the nine winters had below average temperatures...five had a very cold 30 day period 26.0 degrees or lower...one year 2001-02's coldest 30 days averaged a mild 35.4...Chances are slightly better than 66% we will see a good winter this year with these analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Season ending tropical cyclone on ECMWF something to look for next week even as cold overwhelms US, Coldest nov since 2002 on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Season ending tropical cyclone on ECMWF something to look for next week even as cold overwhelms US, Coldest nov since 2002 on the way Snowacane! He mentioned yesterday that the Brazilian meteogram is showing our first snow on Nov. 11-12. I'll keep an eye out for the 2012 Veterans Day Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.