ChescoWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 For those of you out there (and there is quite the crew) here are a couple of JBs tweets on the overall cold winter and early start to winter here in the east from the Weatherbell team "Weatherbell tolling idea of cold November northern plains to east coast Much of europe to turn cold for November too".. "N Hemisphere in for a wild winter this year Global warmingi will turn to climate change" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 just gonna leave this here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 For those of you out there (and there is quite the crew) here are a couple of JBs tweets on the overall cold winter and early start to winter here in the east from the Weatherbell team "Weatherbell tolling idea of cold November northern plains to east coast Much of europe to turn cold for November too".. "N Hemisphere in for a wild winter this year Global warmingi will turn to climate change" He's been consistently calling for a cold winter nationwide and even posted maps showing cold anomalies coast-to-coast. I haven't seen later maps, so I don't know if he is still forecasting such an outcome. A possible fly in the proverbial ointment is the recent cooling of ENSO Region 3.4. ENSO neutral winters following La Niña winters can wind up warm across part or most of North America. It will be interesting to see if the cooling is temporary or a collapse of the possible El Niño that had been developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Who's JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Who's JB? jillian barberie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 A broken clock is right twice a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 That would imply JB has been right with a major call over the last 18 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I hope JB is right (for a change). He has failed miserably since leaving AccuWeather. More music for this thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 He's been consistently calling for a cold winter nationwide and even posted maps showing cold anomalies coast-to-coast. I haven't seen later maps, so I don't know if he is still forecasting such an outcome. A possible fly in the proverbial ointment is the recent cooling of ENSO Region 3.4. ENSO neutral winters following La Niña winters can wind up warm across part or most of North America. It will be interesting to see if the cooling is temporary or a collapse of the possible El Niño that had been developing. Maybe in the West Coast, but ENSO is so unimportant in the East. I'm going to provide examples for each type of ENSO, and one example where it was very snowy here, and one where it wasn't. STRONG Nino: 1982-83, near normal snowfall, BIG snow in Feb, some snow in April 2009-10: VERY snowy, especially from BWI-PHI 1997-98: Warm and rainy winter 1972-73: No snow at all, but not all that warm. STRONG Nina: 2010-11: Top 5 snowy winter in all of the NE 1998-99: VERY warm, brief cold period in Jan. Not much snow. 2011-12: VERY warm, very little snow. NEAR Neutral: (Near can be weak either side) 1989-90: VERY cold DEC, BIG pattern flip NY Eve. VERY warm thereafter with little snow. Biggest snows Thanksgiving and Easter (out of season). 2001-02: VERY warm, very little snow. 1993-94: VERY cold, major ice storms in Jan, big snows in Feb, big Nor'easter in early Mar. 1995-96: Cold, VERY snowy, VERY long winter, with first accumulating snow just after Thanksgiving, and last in mid-April. It's all about the NAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 ENSO neutral with a -PDO can be very mild in January over the East. It's definitely all about the -NAO, but they have shown a tendency to have a gradient pattern over the US. However, we'll have to see if the temps near region 4 try to stay near 0.5 or so. It might have a influence with any tropical forcing rolling east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 We are overdue for a cold november id say odds favor it. Would liker a cold November into the second half of january then i dont care what happens rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Maybe in the West Coast, but ENSO is so unimportant in the East. I'm going to provide examples for each type of ENSO, and one example where it was very snowy here, and one where it wasn't. STRONG Nino: 1982-83, near normal snowfall, BIG snow in Feb, some snow in April 2009-10: VERY snowy, especially from BWI-PHI 1997-98: Warm and rainy winter 1972-73: No snow at all, but not all that warm. STRONG Nina: 2010-11: Top 5 snowy winter in all of the NE 1998-99: VERY warm, brief cold period in Jan. Not much snow. 2011-12: VERY warm, very little snow. NEAR Neutral: (Near can be weak either side) 1989-90: VERY cold DEC, BIG pattern flip NY Eve. VERY warm thereafter with little snow. Biggest snows Thanksgiving and Easter (out of season). 2001-02: VERY warm, very little snow. 1993-94: VERY cold, major ice storms in Jan, big snows in Feb, big Nor'easter in early Mar. 1995-96: Cold, VERY snowy, VERY long winter, with first accumulating snow just after Thanksgiving, and last in mid-April. It's all about the NAO! Greg, You can't say ENSO is entirely unimportant as there is a difference with respect to KU storms that do favor nino winters vs nina. There is also a fall off the ledge effect going from weak el ninos to weak enso positive winters down here with respect to that. Yes the last three winters the NAO has trumped the Pacific (last winter was not a strong nina) because its been off the charts positive or negative. Preaching to the choir, but the problem remains it can not be well outlooked, so its difficult to access how much of an impact it will or will not have. I would argue that you have to include the Indian Ocean in this too since that where some of these MJO(s) start to get energetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I would argue that you have to include the Indian Ocean in this too since that where some of these MJO(s) start to get energetic. And a big mountain range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Maybe in the West Coast, but ENSO is so unimportant in the East. I'm going to provide examples for each type of ENSO, and one example where it was very snowy here, and one where it wasn't. ENSO is an important variable, but it isn't the only variable. Basinwide vs. Central Pacific-based ENSO's matter. The presence/absence of blocking can be huge. The 2009-10 and 2010-11 outcomes were cases where the extreme AO- proved to be the dominant synoptic variable. 2011-12 had the strong La Niña and strong AO+ regime laying the foundation for a remarkably warm winter in North America. By the time blocking developed, the pattern favored a dumping of the cold in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Nice to see Don and Mets posting, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 a JB update from today "Now think what you are seeing here, ( and I am waiting for my personal favorite of late, the JMA to come in) You have some models jumping on the blocking and the cold east. Others that are yelling pdo and throwing cold into the west. But you have the ECMWF and to some extent the CFSV2 very warm in the plains and west. . I suppose in a worst case both the warm versions take over and its stinker of a winter. BUT THINK OF THE OTHER OPTION.. The atlantic warm AMO and favorable pattern for blocking holds, the central Pacific warm spot holds, the cold pdo delivers arctic air into the west and with a southern storm track and favored negative NAO there is simply hand off time and time again from the northwest into the east with storms to boot. I am in the middle right now biased cold in the east and south, but lets see if the JMA, which has been consistent stays with it on the next 3 month idea. Though a model like the GMAO sickens, the plot thickens" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Someone brought to my attention that he was bragging on his radio show that everyone was copying his forecast for this winter that he made years ago. I asked how his February 4th, 2011 call where 2011-2012 would be colder than 2010-2011 turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 How did JB's call for a Fab Feb and Marvelous March turn out this year? I'd take anything he says with a grain of salt-he's been way off for the better part of 2 yrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It does appear that Canada is cooling a bit more effectively *this* October than last October overall. Last November (early) you had +10 850's into MB and SK. Does not appear to be the case this time around. It doesn't mean JB will verify but I wouldn't be shocked if our cold shots are a bit more numerous this year compared to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It does appear that Canada is cooling a bit more effectively *this* October than last October overall. Last November (early) you had +10 850's into MB and SK. Does not appear to be the case this time around. It doesn't mean JB will verify but I wouldn't be shocked if our cold shots are a bit more numerous this year compared to last. Yeah to date snow coverage is greater than it was in 2010 or 2011, less than 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Hmm... several of the indice analogs I came up with were rather toasty in the east. Some weren't of course. ENSO would seem to argue cooler... PDO near neutral... QBO warmer. I haven't a clue what y'all are gonna end up with (and I don't have a much better idea about here) but I heard someone say he's confident the AO will stay positive this winter, and we all know what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Greg, You can't say ENSO is entirely unimportant as there is a difference with respect to KU storms that do favor nino winters vs nina. There is also a fall off the ledge effect going from weak el ninos to weak enso positive winters down here with respect to that. Yes the last three winters the NAO has trumped the Pacific (last winter was not a strong nina) because its been off the charts positive or negative. Preaching to the choir, but the problem remains it can not be well outlooked, so its difficult to access how much of an impact it will or will not have. I would argue that you have to include the Indian Ocean in this too since that where some of these MJO(s) start to get energetic. True, but you can get a different type of KU in a NIna.. usually from Miller B's. Miller A's are more common in NIno winters. Philly on Northward (and SOMETIMES BWI/DCA, but almost never south of there), can do well in a Miller B pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Maybe in the West Coast, but ENSO is so unimportant in the East. I'm going to provide examples for each type of ENSO, and one example where it was very snowy here, and one where it wasn't. STRONG Nino: 1982-83, near normal snowfall, BIG snow in Feb, some snow in April 2009-10: VERY snowy, especially from BWI-PHI 1997-98: Warm and rainy winter 1972-73: No snow at all, but not all that warm. STRONG Nina: 2010-11: Top 5 snowy winter in all of the NE 1998-99: VERY warm, brief cold period in Jan. Not much snow. 2011-12: VERY warm, very little snow. NEAR Neutral: (Near can be weak either side) 1989-90: VERY cold DEC, BIG pattern flip NY Eve. VERY warm thereafter with little snow. Biggest snows Thanksgiving and Easter (out of season). 2001-02: VERY warm, very little snow. 1993-94: VERY cold, major ice storms in Jan, big snows in Feb, big Nor'easter in early Mar. 1995-96: Cold, VERY snowy, VERY long winter, with first accumulating snow just after Thanksgiving, and last in mid-April. It's all about the NAO! I agree, for one to just look at enso and just note part of the cooling in certain areas while ignoring the others and forgetting about the nao is not correctly forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Hmm... several of the indice analogs I came up with were rather toasty in the east. Some weren't of course. ENSO would seem to argue cooler... PDO near neutral... QBO warmer. I haven't a clue what y'all are gonna end up with (and I don't have a much better idea about here) but I heard someone say he's confident the AO will stay positive this winter, and we all know what that means. Also there are some that say it will be negative this winter, bottom line no one can be sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 I agree, for one to just look at enso and just note part of the cooling in certain areas while ignoring the others and forgetting about the nao is not correctly forecasting. Not directed towards your post, but for people to rely solely on the NAO also does a diservice. East/West based NAO mixed with AO and the axis of PNA will give different results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Not directed towards your post, but for people to rely solely on the NAO also does a diservice. East/West based NAO mixed with AO and the axis of PNA will give different results. Of COURSE, but which would you rather have if you were looking for snow and cold in the East? All things being equal, postiive, or negative NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Of COURSE, but which would you rather have if you were looking for snow and cold in the East? All things being equal, postiive, or negative NAO? On a general rule of thumb...of COURSE a -NAO. However, there are so many out there that look at the NAO charts and if they see a -NAO automatically believe that it will be an I-95 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Hmm... several of the indice analogs I came up with were rather toasty in the east. Some weren't of course. ENSO would seem to argue cooler... PDO near neutral... QBO warmer. I haven't a clue what y'all are gonna end up with (and I don't have a much better idea about here) but I heard someone say he's confident the AO will stay positive this winter, and we all know what that means. last five years the ao in October agreed with the winter and going back to 1950 it's 35/62. slightly better than a coin flip. FWIW though we've been streaky with the correlation (3 years have agreement, 2 don't type thing) going back the last 30 years. We're sorta due for a break in the "yes" streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 True, but you can get a different type of KU in a NIna.. usually from Miller B's. Miller A's are more common in NIno winters. Philly on Northward (and SOMETIMES BWI/DCA, but almost never south of there), can do well in a Miller B pattern.. Its still more difficult for the entire northeast to cash in during Nina Winters (not that it can't happen), that was a conclusion of a WAF paper, gee its close to 10 years old now. I have stats I'll post later for Philly, but prior to 2010-11(back thru 1950) even moderate nina winters were wretched refuse around here. Yup that bullish -nao was the reason and once we lost it in February, there went the winter. I don't know if I can find the nao stats in some folder, but I posted it once on Jack's site when some other meteorologist insisted it wasn't so (no one we know), but I believe its around a 2:1 ratio to have the nao be negative or just recently negative to have a 6" or greater storm in PHL. If I can't find it and you promise me a dull stormdata month, I'll re-research it. Odd enso quirk, we (PHL) have done better in negative enso neutral winters with larger events than positive enso neutral winters since 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Its still more difficult for the entire northeast to cash in during Nina Winters (not that it can't happen), that was a conclusion of a WAF paper, gee its close to 10 years old now. I have stats I'll post later for Philly, but prior to 2010-11(back thru 1950) even moderate nina winters were wretched refuse around here. Yup that bullish -nao was the reason and once we lost it in February, there went the winter. I don't know if I can find the nao stats in some folder, but I posted it once on Jack's site when some other meteorologist insisted it wasn't so (no one we know), but I believe its around a 2:1 ratio to have the nao be negative or just recently negative to have a 6" or greater storm in PHL. If I can't find it and you promise me a dull stormdata month, I'll re-research it. Odd enso quirk, we (PHL) have done better in negative enso neutral winters with larger events than positive enso neutral winters since 1950. Yeah -NAO is definitely important for the entire northeast, but for Philly..no question it is needed for more siggy snow events. And in a La Nina...better hope to have that when the PNA is negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.