PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Such a good name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 Such a good name. I keep wanting to say Rafa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 15, 2012 Author Share Posted October 15, 2012 Looking much better on satellite imagery. At the rate this is intensifying, I would not be surprised to see this reach category 2 strength at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Looking much better this morning. I think there was a morning flight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 15, 2012 Author Share Posted October 15, 2012 Looking much better this morning. I think there was a morning flight as well. Indeed. Very nice cloud tops, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 VDM has pressures down to 976mbs and falling quickly. EDIT: Recon just found a 970mb pressure shortly after 15200 2402N 06547W 6977 02964 9717 +209 +107 300030 033 018 002 03 215230 2404N 06546W 6957 02978 9704 +213 +111 294031 033 018 001 00 215300 2405N 06546W 6970 02962 9704 +209 +115 300023 033 019 001 00 215330 2407N 06545W 6962 02962 9715 +190 +120 292015 019 016 002 00 Should peak around 80-85 knots if the winds can catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 92kts FL and 67kts SFMR, with several surface obs at or above hurricane force should be more than enough for the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Non-tasked has 79 knot surface winds and the USAF recon plane has a 67 knot reading. Rafael is most likely a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 000 WTNT62 KNHC 152244 TCUAT2 HURRICANE RAFAEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 645 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012 ...RAFAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE... REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RAFAEL HAS STRENGTHENED...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H. THIS MAKES RAFAEL THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC SEASON. SUMMARY OF 645 PM AST...2245 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 65.7W ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 980mb (Surface) 30° (from the NNE) 68 knots (78 mph) 977mb 30° (from the NNE) 68 knots (78 mph) 960mb 35° (from the NE) 86 knots (99 mph) 952mb 40° (from the NE) 86 knots (99 mph) 947mb 40° (from the NE) 95 knots (109 mph) 943mb 40° (from the NE) 99 knots (114 mph) 925mb 45° (from the NE) 96 knots (110 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Very nice. Tight circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 With SFMR beginning to be used more frequently as the verification of wind speed rather than flight level winds, I would be nice to have published numbers on just how much rain rate biases these instruments. I've spent the last hour digging around ams journal archives, and I've not found anything specific that assigns a specific value to a specific threshold. SFMR might be a great tool to use in low rain-rate cases, but if you are in the middle of an eyewall, how accurate are these observations even in high rain-rate cases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 With SFMR beginning to be used more frequently as the verification of wind speed rather than flight level winds, I would be nice to have published numbers on just how much rain rate biases these instruments. I've spent the last hour digging around ams journal archives, and I've not found anything specific that assigns a specific value to a specific threshold. SFMR might be a great tool to use in low rain-rate cases, but if you are in the middle of an eyewall, how accurate are these observations even in high rain-rate cases? Irene was actually the turning point after it was overestimated by 10-15kts on several advisories.. If you read the post cyclone report NHC admitted they should of put more faith in SFMR. About Rafeal. Centers are still displaced, hence no eye. Outflow also looks meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Up to 85 mph as of 11 PM. Still no eye though. BULLETIN HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1100 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012 ...RAFAEL HEADED NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 65.5W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 90 MPH as of this morning. I wish the eye was more visible, but meh. The forecast track as an extratropical cyclone certainly is entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 90 MPH as of this morning. I wish the eye was more visible, but meh. The forecast track as an extratropical cyclone certainly is entertaining. It's after it merges with another large ET cyclone. This new ET cyclone is the reason the NAO tanks at days 5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Rafael is passing well east of New England as of midday and is undergoing extratropical transition: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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