Record Year-to-Date Temperatures in the US

[skierinvermont]

80 Years later and we are putting up similar numbers.

The world is warmer today than it was 80 years ago, but remove the upward number adjustments and UHI and we are probably below the 1930's in the lower 48. Thats with 150ppm less CO2 in the 1930's.

You're right - it was hotter at 2pm in the 1930s than at 6pm in the 2000s. What's your point?

And UHI is adjusted for in the data. The methodologies of doing so are well documented.

[tacoman25]

Oh, now don't be modest - you're one of the most prolific pseudo-skeptical trolls on the forum. And you're funny too - the idea that the moderators would lift a finger to stop the trolling - what a hoot!

How about sticking to the facts and laying off the needless name-calling? Would be more productive.

If all you can do is complain about pseudo-trolls and the moderators here, you probably have better uses for your time.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This was not the sentiment expressed by many alarmists during the 2008-09 period, which was quite cool for much of the U.S.

It was definitely cooler than 2012 or the most recent averages. You used the current climo for the graph. I recreated the two year period with 105 years of long term data and it looks quite a bit different.

Then there is 2012. It appears that in order to actual on this graph see the right stat's the scale will have to be adjusted. That is better.

I am correct, I have been posting/observing on these boards for a long time. When skeptics/deniers would point out how cold those years were, AGW alarmists would say: "The U.S. is just 2% of the globe, it's meaningless." Or: "The global temperature is all that matters." It happened over and over.

It is relevant because if you think the record warm 2012 in the lower 48 is so meaningful, you have to to assign the same sort of meaning to very cool periods in the U.S. It's not a one-way street. You won't find very many two year periods that were cooler in the U.S. than 2008-09. And very few three winters in a row that were colder for the U.S. than 2008-11.

That is completely bogus. I have no idea how you came up with that. It's not even close to reality. 2008-2009, 24 month period was the 37th warmest or 78th coolest on record. 2008 by it self was 39th warmest and 2009 was 37th warmest.

And to cap off the epic warmth so far. We start December in the deep fryer. And it doesn't look like much "deep" cold is coming to cause any difference.

If all Taco is saying is that "The record warm 2012 annual temperatures doesn't PROVE anything" then I agree with him. It doesn't prove GW or AGW. It is however likely a symptom of AGW, which for other reasons we know to be occurring.

And yes people in the past, possibly myself, have made vague statements like "all that matters is global temperature." In terms of proving the existence of GW or AGW it is a much more reliable measure. I would not use a regional cool period to disprove AGW and I would not use a regional record hot period to prove it.

Of course he could of said that the epic and unprecedented 2012 annual warm for the CONUS does not prove global warming. But that isn't what happened. He came in making false claims to move goal post from how warm it actually has been recently.

But nothing compares to 2012 now. It's a stand alone. In-fact it's going to end up almost 1F warmer vs the NCDC long term climo than the coldest years on record in 118 years in the United States. Does anyone think we will ever without something major like a volcano or nuclear war have a year in the CONUS near 51F? No way. With the ocean's so warm and OHC so high we obviously are going to continue to have the realistic max "cold" period keep warming.

I think the better question is without AGW would this record of happened?

[bluewave]

I am correct, I have been posting/observing on these boards for a long time. When skeptics/deniers would point out how cold those years were, AGW alarmists would say: "The U.S. is just 2% of the globe, it's meaningless." Or: "The global temperature is all that matters." It happened over and over.

It is relevant because if you think the record warm 2012 in the lower 48 is so meaningful, you have to to assign the same sort of meaning to very cool periods in the U.S. It's not a one-way street. You won't find very many two year periods that were cooler in the U.S. than 2008-09. And very few three winters in a row that were colder for the U.S. than 2008-11.

We have seen the top 3 warmest winters in the U.S. since the late 1990's along with 7 top 15

warmest. The best the cold has been able to do during this time frame is one top 15 coldest

coming in at 14 in 2010.

[Jonger]

March pretty much sealed the fate of warmest year.

[SVT450R]

The only problem i have is that some here make it like AGW is 100% reason why we are seeing this record year while in reality it's AGW on top of natural variability why do you think we have years like 1921 and 1934 in the top 5.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The only problem i have is that some here make it like AGW is 100% reason why we are seeing this record year while in reality it's AGW on top of natural variability why do you think we have years like 1921 and 1934 in the top 5.

That is true but that is also more semantics.

It's probably statistically speaking 97-99% likely 2012 would have not set the record without AGW.

Natural Factors will always be there.

[TerryM]

The only problem i have is that some here make it like AGW is 100% reason why we are seeing this record year while in reality it's AGW on top of natural variability why do you think we have years like 1921 and 1934 in the top 5.

I don't remember anyone saying that, could you refresh my memory?

Terry

[SVT450R]

That is true but that is also more semantics.

It's probably statistically speaking 97-99% likely 2012 would have not set the record without AGW.

Natural Factors will always be there.

It goes both ways tho without natural variability would we have seen 2012 still set a record. If we were to take AGW out of the equation we would still be looking at a very warm year but because of AGW we could say it pushed us over the top would you agree?

I don't remember anyone saying that, could you refresh my memory?

Terry

It's more on some of the tones of certain posters posting.

[tacoman25]

That is true but that is also more semantics.

It's probably statistically speaking 97-99% likely 2012 would have not set the record without AGW.

Natural Factors will always be there.

Perhaps. But also probably 97% chance that 2012 would have been in the top 10 without AGW. The natural patterns dictated it would be a very warm year no matter what.

[tacoman25]

You are correct that the -PDO/+AMO pattern with blocking on the Eurasian side of the Arctic like we had

last winter would have still been a mild pattern for us back during a 1950's winter. When you add to it

the warming that we have seen since then, records are going to be broken. The warmer Arctic down

into Canada during the recent warm year winters has added to the record warmth. The warming is

very obvious especially across the northern U.S.

I made a composite comparing the older 50's pattern of warmth to the years that we have seen warm winters

here since the late 90's.

Late 90's on unfavorable winter years

1950's unfavorable winter years

That's not really a fair comparison. Several of those years like 1956-57 and 1949-50 had very favorable blocking patterns for the Western and north central U.S., not at all comparable to what was seen in 2011-12, 2005-06, etc. And 1957-58 had more favorable setup for the East. It really throws off your temperature composite.

[tacoman25]

That's not really a fair comparison. Several of those years like 1956-57 and 1949-50 had very favorable blocking patterns for the Western and north central U.S., not at all comparable to what was seen in 2011-12, 2005-06, etc. And 1957-58 had more favorable setup for the East. It really throws off your temperature composite.

To illustrate, look at the height anomaly patterns during 1949-50, 1956-57, and 1957-58 vs. the very warm recent winters you cited. The blocking pattern was much worse in the most recent winters...note especially the huge +EPO over Alaska. That is the number one thing that leads to warm winters in the CONUS, regardless of AGW.

[Alpha5]

Troll....

(Why do people respond to this stuff?)

He's not a troll. If you disagree with him thats fine, but dont go slandering other people for no reason.

[tacoman25]

It is a very fair comparison since those were the five warmest winters of the late 40's to around 60

-PDO/+AMO era. I was comparing how we can consistently put up warmer winters during this

-PDO/+AMO era than the last for the years the winters turn warm. You can see that there is no

equal to the warmth since especially since the late 90's.

Again, look at the EPO and overall blocking. Just looking at -PDO/+AMO does not reflect the most important factors for CONUS warmth.

The facts are, almost all of the 1998-2012 very warm winters had more favorable +EPO patterns for warmth than those warmest years from the 1950s and 1960s. I already showed the height anomaly composite proving this.

[tacoman25]

The +EPO winters got warmer than they were back in the 1950's.

Yes...1953-54 is the most comparable to 2011-12 or many of the other recent winters in terms of strong +EPO, and it was only slightly cooler overall.

[tacoman25]

Again, look at the EPO and overall blocking. Just looking at -PDO/+AMO does not reflect the most important factors for CONUS warmth.

The facts are, almost all of the 1998-2012 very warm winters had more favorable +EPO patterns for warmth than those warmest years from the 1950s and 1960s. I already showed the height anomaly composite proving this.

To further demonstrate how prominent +EPO has been compared to the older period you were comparing to, look at the height anomaly map for 1948-68 vs 1997-2012. Look at the EPO/WPO region over Alaska and you can see how the more recent period of winters has been easily more unfavorable for delivering cold to the CONUS. However, the -NAO in recent years has been similar to what was seen then overall.

[The_Global_Warmer]

We cant forget to factor in height rises anomaly's. We know going back 55 yrs atleast average H5 heights have steadily risen.

That has to effect comparing pattern analogs.

Ridges will be stronger and troughs will be weaker. Probably the median has gone up to.

Bluewave posted the chart before.

[tacoman25]

We cant forget to factor in height rises anomaly's. We know going back 55 yrs atleast average H5 heights have steadily risen.

That has to effect comparing pattern analogs.

Ridges will be stronger and troughs will be weaker. Probably the median has gone up to.

Bluewave posted the chart before.

Yes, and that doesn't change my point at all. When you have troughing over Alaska (+EPO), that strongly promotes torching for the lower 48 in winter. The +EPO pattern in the late 1990s, 2005-06 and 2011-12 was more dominant than in almost all of the 1950s and 1960s warm national winters. Which is how Alaska managed one of their coldest Januaries on record last winter, while the lower 48 was absolutely torching.

[tacoman25]

That's right. The steadily rising 500 mb heights allow more ridging for the warmer years now

compared to the 1950's.

More ridging...except up into Alaska! And stronger troughing in the EPO region. Look at the Pacific ridging in those maps...it extends much further north and stronger in the 1950s years...which is more favorable to push cold south towards the CONUS.

And there was also stronger riding in the NAO region in the 1950s winters. The late 1990s-2012 very warm winters had a remarkable lack of strong ridging both in the NAO and EPO regions.

[tacoman25]

You are never going to be able to reproduce the 500 mb anomalies exactly averaged out over decades

as the climate has warmed significantly and the 500 mb heights have come up. The point is that the

warmer climate that we have now just allows for more record warmth than the atmosphere of the

1950's did. That's why no era can produce so many of the top warmest winters that we have seen since

the late 1990's

But that's just it...even though 500 mb heights have come UP, the more recent years you compared to the 1950s and 1960s ones had LOWER heights in Alaska...thus more +EPO and a more favorable pattern for warmth in the CONUS. And the older years had HIGHER heights in the NAO region, which promotes colder air into the eastern half of the U.S.

[skierinvermont]

But that's just it...even though 500 mb heights have come UP, the more recent years you compared to the 1950s and 1960s ones had LOWER heights in Alaska...thus more +EPO and a more favorable pattern for warmth in the CONUS. And the older years had HIGHER heights in the NAO region, which promotes colder air into the eastern half of the U.S.

I don't see the lower heights in AK in the modern years. Remember the scale is different. The modern years have a scale down to -70, the 50s have one to -60. There are more widespread -60s and even some -70s in the 50s years, indicating a more persistent +EPO.

Either way, whether the EPO has been more or less positive, the increase in global temperatures has made warm years and winters in the U.S. more common and more intense. A +3 is now a +4. A 0 is now a +1.

[tacoman25]

Either way, whether the EPO has been more or less positive, the increase in global temperatures has made warm years and winters in the U.S. more common and more intense. A +3 is now a +4. A 0 is now a +1.

Sure. But factors like the EPO, AO, and NAO are still a much larger factor in determining if a winter is cold or warm. And the patterns that delivered the very warm national winters in the late 1990s, 2005-06, and 2011-12 would have also delivered very warm anomalies in the 1950s and 1960s. We know this because the winters that were the closest match from a height anomaly standpoint, such as 1953-54, were very warm...not much cooler than 2011-12, actually.

[tacoman25]

The record warmth of 2012 is but a distant memory now for much of the country.

 

 

 

 

There was all sort of media noise last year about the record warmth - but I've barely heard a peep this year about all of the crazy cold records that have fallen. Numerous places in the central U.S. seeing their coldest temps on record so late in the season, several areas seeing one of the coldest starts to spring on record, a bunch of monthly May temp records about to fall, numerous late season snowfall records set across the central U.S...not all that newsworthy, apparently.

[SVT450R]

Just april alone 3,413 low min daily records were broken and 1,172 snow records.

[tacoman25]

Just april alone 3,413 low min daily records were broken and 1,172 snow records.

 

And I bet there were even more record low max's set. Those are easier to reach in urban areas than minimums.

[SVT450R]

And I bet there were even more record low max's set. Those are easier to reach in urban areas than minimums.

Yea 4,155.

[Jonger]

The record warmth of 2012 is but a distant memory now for much of the country.

 

 

YearTDeptUS.png

 

 

There was all sort of media noise last year about the record warmth - but I've barely heard a peep this year about all of the crazy cold records that have fallen. Numerous places in the central U.S. seeing their coldest temps on record so late in the season, several areas seeing one of the coldest starts to spring on record, a bunch of monthly May temp records about to fall, numerous late season snowfall records set across the central U.S...not all that newsworthy, apparently.

 

You have to go to Drudgereport to hear it mentioned.

[MN Transplant]

The simple fact is that this year's cold, which has been very interesting to follow, is vastly less impressive in a climate context than 2012's.

we don't have April's totals, but through March last year it was the warmest on record. This year? 45th coolest. April will improve that ranking, but probably not to the top 10 even.

As far as records, the 5695 record minimum high temps this year (3378 in April) are again impressive, but are less than half of the 12075 from Jan-Apr 2012 and Mar 2012 had more than 2013 year to date by itself. Snowfall records are interesting, but there is no real corollary, 0 is 0.

As far as the media is concerned, the problem with this year is that the cold is in low population density areas that are already associated with cold weather. +10 anomalies last March stretched from eastern Montana down to Arkansas and over to almost the east coast, covering a huge percentage of the population. -10 anomalies this March and April? North Dakota and maybe slivers of MN and SD.

In summary, the persistent cold in the has been impressive, but not as historic as last year, and it is missing many of the major markets that it would need to drive a ton of media attention

[tacoman25]

The simple fact is that this year's cold, which has been very interesting to follow, is vastly less impressive in a climate context than 2012's.

we don't have April's totals, but through March last year it was the warmest on record. This year? 45th coolest. April will improve that ranking, but probably not to the top 10 even.

As far as records, the 5695 record minimum high temps this year (3378 in April) are again impressive, but are less than half of the 12075 from Jan-Apr 2012 and Mar 2012 had more than 2013 year to date by itself. Snowfall records are interesting, but there is no real corollary, 0 is 0.

As far as the media is concerned, the problem with this year is that the cold is in low population density areas that are already associated with cold weather. +10 anomalies last March stretched from eastern Montana down to Arkansas and over to almost the east coast, covering a huge percentage of the population. -10 anomalies this March and April? North Dakota and maybe slivers of MN and SD.

In summary, the persistent cold in the has been impressive, but not as historic as last year, and it is missing many of the major markets that it would need to drive a ton of media attention

 

All good points. It's true that most major media markets couldn't care less what happens in Amarillo, TX or Grand Forks, ND.

 

However, while you are right the record cold this year has not been as impressive as the record warmth last spring, I would not say this spring has been much less impressive from an overall weather/climate perspective. The sheer number of cold records in combination with the (possibly?) unprecedented number of major spring snowstorms is astounding, and you'd be hard-pressed to find another comparable spring. Parts of MO are going to see snow tomorrow night...that's nearly unheard of for May!

 

To sum it up, 2013 has been the year where winter won't die. For example, Denver has seen a few springs that were roughly this cold before, and we've seen a few that were nearly this snowy, but never this combination together. It really has been the most winter-like spring on record. And I bet the same could be said for much of WY, KS, NE, the Dakotas, MN, IA, MO, WI. There has been consistent cold, there has been record cold in many areas, and there has been record snowfall in many places (especially if you include February for more southern areas).

 

I would say this applies to the central 1/3 of the country, which while not densely populated, does have several major metro areas and is a huge geographic region.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Given the extensive to eventually record snow cover into late March/April how much colder can we actually get.  IIRC the AO reached record low levels and the Pacific cooperated well.

 

The warmth is super extreme and not likely to be like March 2012 for a long time.  But it could have been much less extreme and still been a much larger anomalous event.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March: