Chicago WX Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Couple cells popping up in western IL, north/northeast of Quincy. Filtered sun at best here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2012 Author Share Posted October 14, 2012 This is one of those that is borderline/tough to call up until the end. Seeing some breaks on visible satellite, especially in IL, but will it be enough? Wish we had some steeper mid level lapse rates. Overall still not really thrilled with the prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 This is one of those that is borderline/tough to call up until the end. Seeing some breaks on visible satellite, especially in IL, but will it be enough? Wish we had some steeper mid level lapse rates. Overall still not really thrilled with the prospects. Yeah, I was seriously considering heading that way, but it's too conditional. I'll just hang tight and see if anything develops that I can run after that is closer to home. I'm wondering if Joe decided to head out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Yeah, I was seriously considering heading that way, but it's too conditional. I'll just hang tight and see if anything develops that I can run after that is closer to home. I'm wondering if Joe decided to head out. Not yet...I'm waiting to see how things evolve. Right now it's looking like I won't head out though. The current best looking activity from VYS down to PIA is actually headed NE towards the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2012 Author Share Posted October 14, 2012 Not yet...I'm waiting to see how things evolve. Right now it's looking like I won't head out though. The current best looking activity from VYS down to PIA is actually headed NE towards the metro area. Warning out for those cells now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 That cell over McHenry Co. looks pretty strong as well. About 30 miles away and closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Couplet with the small cell moving towards Sheridan, IL. The cell near Grand Ridge has also shown some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Couplet with the small cell moving towards Sheridan, IL. TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 143 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY... SOUTHERN KANE COUNTY... WESTERN KENDALL COUNTY... NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT * AT 142 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEWARK...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF SANDWICH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... SANDWICH AROUND 150 PM. PLANO...LITTLE ROCK AND YORKVILLE AROUND 155 PM. SUGAR GROVE AND MONTGOMERY AROUND 205 PM. AURORA AROUND 210 PM. NORTH AURORA AND ELBURN AROUND 215 PM. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED... AURORA UNIVERSITY...IL MATH AND SCIENCE ACADEMY...SANDWICH FAIRGROUNDS...WAUBONSEE COMMUNITY COLLEGE... I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 104 AND 118. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Hail report: ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0124 PM HAIL TINLEY PARK 41.57N 87.80W 10/14/2012 M0.25 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER 15 MIN OF PEA SIZE HAIL. AT 175TH STREET AND 80TH AVE 0130 PM HAIL OAK FOREST 41.61N 87.75W 10/14/2012 M0.50 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER 48 MPH WIND GUST ALSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 TVS on TORD... 54 kts gate to gate at 2500 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 It's absorbed by the squall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2012 Author Share Posted October 14, 2012 Tornado warning for Chi Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Couple severe warnings in C. MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2012 Author Share Posted October 14, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...NWRN IND....FAR SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 141911Z - 142115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...BAND OF TSTMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT AS ACTIVITY SPREADS QUICKLY E/NEWD. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 995 MB CYCLONE OVER NWRN LOWER MI AND A 996 MB CYCLONE OVER NWRN IL. BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN TO W-CNTRL IL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE LATTER CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVING ONLY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND DEW POINTS MIXING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...MLCAPE REMAINS MEAGER FROM 250-500 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...WITH 1 KM AGL FLOW AROUND 40-45 KT PER AREA VWP DATA AMIDST SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET...SETUP COULD YIELD MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 10/14/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 I have 120 kids (with chaperones) in church lower level in Inverness. Sirens going. Heavy rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 TORNADO WARNING ILC031-043-142000- /O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0011.121014T1919Z-121014T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 219 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY... NORTHERN DUPAGE COUNTY... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT * AT 218 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST CHICAGO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... CAROL STREAM AND BARTLETT AROUND 225 PM. ROSELLE...HANOVER PARK...MEDINAH AND ITASCA AROUND 230 PM. SCHAUMBURG...ELK GROVE VILLAGE...HOFFMAN ESTATES AND WOOD DALE AROUND 235 PM. ROLLING MEADOWS...PALATINE...MOUNT PROSPECT AND INVERNESS AROUND 240 PM. ARLINGTON HEIGHTS AROUND 245 PM. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED... DUPAGE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...HARPER COLLEGE...OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE...SCHAUMBURG BOOMERS BASEBALL...WHEATON COLLEGE... I-94 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 34. I-294 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 34. I-290 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 10. I-355 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2012 Author Share Posted October 14, 2012 Dewpoints seem to be mixing out a little more than expected. We're down in the mid 50s here... I don't remember that being shown. That won't help with instability even though there has been some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Tornado warning for Chi Storm. The actual warned cell passed southeast of here. The cell that passed through here was riding up an OFB...gusted to 30mph+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 DTX SHORT TERM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, RESPONDING TO AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA, WILL SPREAD INTO OUR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COMBINATION SURFACE HEATING PERMITTED BY AND MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE DRY SLOT IS HELPING WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOURLY MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPE PUSHING ABOVE 500 J/KG IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN, THE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY THAT SEEMS REQUIRED SO FAR TODAY FOR CONVECTION STRONG ENOUGH TO BECOME ORGANIZED. CAPE IN THE 500 J/KG+ RANGE WILL MAKE UPDRAFTS STRONG ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT WILL OTHERWISE CUT DOWN ANY STORMS OR RESULT IN LINES PARALLEL TO THE SHEAR VECTOR. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE DOES SUPPORT MINI SUPERCELL MODES OF CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH TIME AS MOST OF THE CAPE IS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIND SPEED AVERAGING 55 KNOTS IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY OR DUE TO THE COLD FRONT JUST DRIVING ACTIVITY EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS SET TO PRESENT ITS OWN PROBLEMS AS IT LOOKS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS BOTH ALONG AND IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MATCHING UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD MAKES BELIEVABLE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF A STRONG DYNAMIC COMPONENT TO THE WIND SPEED ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM OFFERS A 6-8 MB 3 HR PRESSURE RISE FOR A RESPECTABLE ISALLOBARIC POP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION, AND RESULTING LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS WILL BE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR WIND GUST TO 40 MPH. NO WIND HEADLINES OVER LAND AREAS BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 The sun has been out here for over an hour now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 The sun has been out here for over an hour now... Pretty filtered sun at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2012 Author Share Posted October 14, 2012 Pencil thin line getting a little more organized from west of JOT into central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 high quality boomers with these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 416 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... WASHTENAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT * AT 412 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRASS LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... CHELSEA AROUND 425 PM EDT. LYNDON TOWNSHIP AND GREGORY AROUND 430 PM EDT. PINCKNEY STATE RECREATION AREA AND HELL AROUND 435 PM EDT. PINCKNEY AROUND 440 PM EDT. LAKELAND AND CHILSON AROUND 445 PM EDT. BRIGHTON AND ISLAND LAKE STATE RECREATION AREA AROUND 450 PM EDT. THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS... WILLIS... OAK GROVE... DIXBORO... YPSILANTI... WHITMORE LAKE... SALINE... SALEM... PINCKNEY... MILAN... MANCHESTER... HOWELL... HARTLAND... HAMBURG... GREGORY... FOWLERVILLE... DEXTER... COHOCTAH... CHELSEA... BRIGHTON... ANN ARBOR... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MIC091-142115- /O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0108.121014T2018Z-121014T2115Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... LENAWEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT * AT 415 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF HUDSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... MEDINA AND CANANDAIGUA AROUND 425 PM EDT. CLAYTON AND SAND CREEK AROUND 430 PM EDT. CADMUS AND ROME CENTER AROUND 435 PM EDT. ADRIAN AND ONSTED AROUND 440 PM EDT. TIPTON AROUND 445 PM EDT. TECUMSEH AROUND 450 PM EDT. THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS... TECUMSEH... ONSTED... MORENCI... HUDSON... DEERFIELD... CLINTON... CLAYTON... CEMENT CITY... BRITTON... BLISSFIELD... ADRIAN... ADDISON... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. && LAT...LON 4207 8436 4207 8402 4208 8401 4208 8378 4172 8376 4171 8436 TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 226DEG 40KT 4178 8434 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN $$ BT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Sun's out now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Good cells exploding in MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Oakland County under a warning now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Caught the edge of a cell in southern Washtenaw. Nice little low-topped wind-driven rainstorm. Weekend total up to about 1.28" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 The actual warned cell passed southeast of here. The cell that passed through here was riding up an OFB...gusted to 30mph+. I think it was south of me as well here in Palatine area. At least as best as I could tell via Pykl3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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