cyclone77 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Outlook for today shrunk westward again with the 1630 update. No surprise there. A bit surprised tomorrow's risk area wasn't extended further north, but they'll probably wait for tonight's 00z suite and bump northward on the 06z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 I'm guarded about the threat tomorrow. Surface low should be deepening fairly rapidly and wind fields will be strong, but uncertain about instability. Threat would go way up if we can get CAPE over 1000 north of the OH River where the best wind fields are, but it's looking questionable. Still, it won't take very deep convection to try to mix some wind to the surface and could be looking at strong/potentially damaging gusts outside of convection anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 I'm guarded about the threat tomorrow. Surface low should be deepening fairly rapidly and wind fields will be strong, but uncertain about instability. Threat would go way up if we can get CAPE over 1000 north of the OH River where the best wind fields are, but it's looking questionable. Still, it won't take very deep convection to try to mix some wind to the surface and could be looking at strong/potentially damaging gusts outside of convection anyway. Yeah it could definitely use more instability, but I like this little setup. Love the quickly strengthening surface low at that time of the day. Very nice vort max moving in as well. With so much ambient vorticity and the strong wind fields this is definitely one to watch. The 4km NAM breaks out some sunshine over Indiana late in the morning. If the area ends up getting a little more sun than expected this could end up being a real good setup IMO. Of course the opposite could happen with more clouds. Highly conditional setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 The surface low has shifted south throughout the day towards the area of maximum upper level divergence associated with the jet and is consolidating, located over southern Nebraska at the moment with a minimum sea level pressure of 998 mb. The position of the upper level trough with respect to the Rockies is amplifying the system quite a bit right now, all the westerly flow across the Rockies associated with the trough is contributing to leeside cyclogenesis, so the trough is deepening. This is leading to a stronger jet streak, intensifying the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 18z 4km NAM. Continues to look very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 SREF going bonkers again due to the relaxed parameters. Can't wait until spring when we have a 50% area from Michigan to Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Can't stand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 really an impressive heavy rain event setting up for tonight. PWATS of 1.9 in KS/MO...in October...heading this way and some of the 3/6hr QPF amounts on the 18z runs are really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 SREF going bonkers again due to the relaxed parameters. Can't wait until spring when we have a 50% area from Michigan to Alabama Kind of makes you wonder if they'll change it back eventually after seeing 50 on the map so many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 18z runs GFS left, NAM right valid overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 Kind of makes you wonder if they'll change it back eventually after seeing 50 on the map so many times. I've wished that there was another parameter on there even before this change...something that would take into account the amount of directional shear. High helicity doesn't necessarily mean there's a lot of directional shear, which is obviously pretty important for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 more micro cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC pushed the risk area further north into Southern Lower Michigan with the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC pushed the risk area further north into Southern Lower Michigan with the next update. I'm not so sure. Even though it wouldn't take much of a storm to get severe-level winds to the surface, there may be very little CAPE to work with to aid in development. For example, the WRF is showing 1000+ j/kg south of Indy, but very little north of there. I have no doubt that there will be a few wind damage reports, but they may be from non-thunderstorm winds. Now, if we can get a some sun up here, all bets are off, but I'm afraid we'll be socked in except for a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Pretty impressive moisture transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Saw a couple lightning strikes on my way home today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Wish we could get that setup in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 1000 mb sfc low centered over Omaha. Band of rain about to move in which will kick off round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 First moderate band of precip broke up most of the partygoers, next band of precip firing up just to the south. This is mostly being driven by jet dynamics, low level frontogenesis is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Surface low has tracked ENE and is now located over Des Moines, minimum pressure of 1000 mb. It is projected to start heading directly towards Madison in the next few hours and deepen a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC pushed the risk area further north into Southern Lower Michigan with the next update. I'm not so sure. Even though it wouldn't take much of a storm to get severe-level winds to the surface, there may be very little CAPE to work with to aid in development. For example, the WRF is showing 1000+ j/kg south of Indy, but very little north of there. I have no doubt that there will be a few wind damage reports, but they may be from non-thunderstorm winds. Now, if we can get a some sun up here, all bets are off, but I'm afraid we'll be socked in except for a short period of time. Well...color me wrong. SPC moved the slight risk up to to IN/MI border. Pretty good sized 5% tor probs too. They still sound uncertain, but the threat could be either from supercells or QLCS. Time to watch the radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Given that it is 66/61 here now at Goshen I am not suprised that the svr risk has been extended northward. Might be an interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Well this is interesting. The sun is coming out here... That could have some huge implications if we get even modest surface heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 The northern target was looking interesting on several of the short term/hi-res models last night...many of which showed a broken band of cells developing across N-C IL, down into S-C IL. The question was and still is whether or not the dry slot will clear enough to allow for further heating and destabilization, which appears as if it might happened based on current data. I might head out possibly as far south as IKK/LAF, but I'll wait a while longer before making the decision given it's a relatively short drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 I would like to head out myself, but I can't stray too far. As the county Skywarn coordinator, if we have weather, I need to be around. I might head down 24 toward LAF though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 The northern target was looking interesting on several of the short term/hi-res models last night...many of which showed a broken band of cells developing across N-C IL, down into S-C IL. The question was and still is whether or not the dry slot will clear enough to allow for further heating and destabilization, which appears as if it will happened based on current data. I might head out possibly as far south as IKK/LAF, but I'll wait a while longer before making the decision given it's a relatively short drive. Good luck, if you do indeed head down here. 69/60 with some patches of blue skies in the LAF. I would like to head out myself, but I can't stray too far. As the county Skywarn coordinator, if we have weather, I need to be around. I might head down 24 toward LAF though. Call it a party then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 I'm predicting a significant leaf-fall outbreak today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 SPC certainly not as confident with latest update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Nope. They dropped the tor probs to 2%. Just not enough sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 1000 surface based CAPE currently over west central IL with patches of clearing ought to boost potential. Partly sunny at times here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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