brettjrob Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Really? That vorticity down south becomes the dominant upper low now... That's just insanity. Been a long time since I remember seeing changes this crazy inside the 3-4 day period. I still feel it will probably snap back somewhat, but that's an ominous map no matter how you slice it. EDIT: With the disclaimer that this run seems an outlier for now, I believe that verbatim it suggests a significant tornadic supercell threat across parts of north TX into southern and central OK on Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 GFS continues to trend toward making the southern vort lobe dominant and really going to town over OK. That would make for an interesting Saturday. Other issue I guess is limiting the convective crap we have left over from Friday night ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Saturday in Oklahoma isn't looking bad. Also note the early afternoon AMA sounding on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 That's just insanity. Been a long time since I remember seeing changes this crazy inside the 3-4 day period. I still feel it will probably snap back somewhat, but that's an ominous map no matter how you slice it. I'd have to think the potential for a secondary sfc low to close off would be high with a solution like that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I'd have to think the potential for a secondary sfc low to close off would be high with a solution like that as well. Certainly at least some great pressure falls for an isallobaric wind to help back the low level wind over E OK a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Is only one run...but talk about a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Certainly at least some great pressure falls for an isallobaric wind to help back the low level wind over E OK a lot Add in that the instability axis isn't completely disjointed from the moisture axis and you've got a recipe for some trouble if we keep trending this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Tulsa, OK 00z sun from 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Add in that the instability axis isn't completely disjointed from the moisture axis and you've got a recipe for some trouble if we keep trending this direction. On closer look, though, maybe not so much. Oklahoma still, on this 00z GFS, faces similar issues to up north. Instability builds to the west of the confluence zone, where 850mb is dried out and sfc winds are veered. 850mb winds are way too veered on this run. Even with this stronger trough, it's going to take a weaker ridge to allow it to happen on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Tulsa, OK 00z sun from 00z GFS You can have all the shear in the world, but saturated adiabatic lapse rates from 700mb to the tropopause (and not much better beneath that) means you don't get ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 On closer look, though, maybe not so much. Oklahoma still, on this 00z GFS, faces similar issues to up north. Instability builds to the west of the confluence zone, where 850mb is dried out and sfc winds are veered. 850mb winds are way too veered on this run. Even with this stronger trough, it's going to take a weaker ridge to allow it to happen on Saturday. Taken verbatim, yes. We'll have to see if there's a stronger low-level response to the southern energy becoming dominant. The trend though, as the system comes onshore here in CA, is for the pieces of energy to be more disjointed/split. Just going on history, thus far this year that hasn't worked out quite well. When the entire thing has come onshore, then we'll have a much better idea of how the upper-level and the low-level features might work out. At this juncture I can't be sure of any prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 You can have all the shear in the world, but saturated adiabatic lapse rates from 700mb to the tropopause (and not much better beneath that) means you don't get ****. saturated adiabatic lapse rate probably due to ongoing convection in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Taken verbatim, yes. We'll have to see if there's a stronger low-level response to the southern energy becoming dominant. The trend though, as the system comes onshore here in CA, is for the pieces of energy to be more disjointed/split. Just going on history, thus far this year that hasn't worked out quite well. When the entire thing has come onshore, then we'll have a much better idea of how the upper-level and the low-level features might work out. At this juncture I can't be sure of any prog. This. My gut says that over the next 36 h we'll see the consensus shift back away from such a dominant southern vort max. However, if the GFS H5 verified, I'm having a bit of trouble understanding why low-level flow wouldn't back more, at least locally. It is a near-textbook synoptic map for I-35 east to the Ozarks in KS/OK/N TX, IMO. (Obviously, instability and issues relating to prior convection would have to be considered, too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 saturated adiabatic lapse rate probably due to ongoing convection in the model. Right, but there's no instability really painted ahead of that convection as it forms. Most of the CAPE at 18z, and all of it at 00z, is behind the convection, right near the dryline. It's likely WAA-induced crap. It might be a forced line, in which case there could be some damaging wind gusts/a spinup, but even ahead of the convective signal (NW AR/SW MO), the lapse rates are nearly saturated adiabatic through the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Right, but there's no instability really painted ahead of that convection as it forms. Most of the CAPE at 18z, and all of it at 00z, is behind the convection, right near the dryline. It's likely WAA-induced crap. It might be a forced line, in which case there could be some damaging wind gusts/a spinup, but even ahead of the convective signal (NW AR/SW MO), the lapse rates are nearly saturated adiabatic through the column. Yup, noticed this. That's more of a squall line threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Tulsa, OK 00z sun from 00z GFS Rainy mess looks like to me. Saturated up the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Anyway...back to Friday...considering that seems to be the only day that looks somewhat consolidated at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 For Friday, the 00z GFS seems to have some localized backing of the winds in SE CO, with a tongue of higher dewpoints reaching into the Lamar/La Junta/Rocky Ford metroplex. It looks to me, just based off this run, like an orographic circulation may be what the GFS is trying to depict, forming near the Raton Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 D2: ..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHALLOW COOL/STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS...AND AREAS NORTHWARD...THROUGH THE DAY...AND PERHAPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 60F. AS A CYCLONIC 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS...BOTH ALONG THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING DRY LINE AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION. ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...UNLESS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS SPREAD WITH STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING OR THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 00z Euro at 48: 00z Euro at 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 D3: DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE THAT SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE REMNANT SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW CONTINUES ITS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. VARIABILITY IS INCREASING AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...FROM WHICH A COUPLE OF MORE DISTINCT SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES COULD EMERGE AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. NAM/SREF APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THE INITIAL CIRCULATION FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER IMPULSE...AND ACCELERATE IT EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUNDAY...MUCH AS GENERALLY HAS BEEN INDICATED BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A DISTINCT SECONDARY IMPULSE...TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAY BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT IMPULSE SATURDAY...AS IT LIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ECMWF ALSO NOW IS MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE...BUT NORTH OF THAT OF THE GFS. REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW...GENERALLY EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS FEATURE...AND SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A BROAD SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM 50-70 KT...BENEATH A 70+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND 1.5+ INCHES/...WITH 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING PERHAPS CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM SECTOR DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MAY ULTIMATELY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. CONDITIONS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF THIS POTENTIAL STILL APPEAR MOST PROBABLE TO EVOLVE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION THAT MAY OCCUR...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION WHICH MAY SLOW OR INHIBIT INSOLATION. COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL VARIABILITY...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. BUT A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND EVENT APPEARS A POSSIBILITY. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 10/11/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I still say Friday is the day. Saturday looks like wind wind wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 After looking at the overnight runs and discounting the Nam, thus using mostly the GFS and ECMWF runs, and weighing it 2-1 ECMWF vs GFS. If today's runs of the models continue to show more of a open wave and leave the strongest H5 vorticity max to the south or drop it further south by just a bit, I feel there will be some changes from the Day 3 outlook to Day 2 on the northern extent. I currently looks like this: I think the 30% risk area will need to be moved to a Austin MN to Winona to Stevens Point WI line, and put the 15% risk line where the 30% is now. I think the best chance at seeing a isolated tornado will be south of a line from Storm Lake IA to ARX. I live in the NW twin cities metro (Champlin) where we haven't seen a beneficial rainfall since Aug 3rd. If the models continue this trend, I'm afraid the dryness will continue. Edit: I would define a beneficial rainfall to be a half inch or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 604 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LONG STORY... FRIDAY AFTERNOON... CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES FRI AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY MUCH TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS. BASICALLY...IF THE SUN STARTS SHINING IN EARNEST BEFORE NOON ON FRIDAY...IT COULD BE AN INTERESTING AFTERNOON. IF THE AREA IS STILL SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG...THE PROBABILITIES OF SVR WX FRI AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED. THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES LIKELY WILL NEED TO HIT 77-80 DEGREES ON FRI FOR THERE TO BE A CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A STRONG MSTR SURGE INTO THE AREA AND EXPECTED DEWPTS IN THE 60S BY FRI MORNING...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AND THE ODDS OF HIGHS PUSHING 80 IN THE AFTERNOON CAN PROBABLY BE PLACED AT LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF IF IF...WE BREAK OUT AND WARM UP TO NEAR 80 ON FRI...UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40-50KTS BULK SHEAR WILL PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A MODEL FCST PREFRONTAL TROUGH BENEATH A LEAD MID/UPR WAVE. THE TIMING FOR THIS ROUND WOULD BE BETWEEN 2PM-7PM. A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW LVL FOCUS COULD ALLOW INITIAL DISCRETE OR QUASI-DISCRETE STORM MODE. THESE STORMS WOULD DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DMG WINDS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT...HAVE LEFT TORNADO MENTION IN THE HWO EVEN THOUGH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE AFTERNOON THUNDER. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 600 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT STARTING TO EDGE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DOWN IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUT THE MORE DEEPER, UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL START DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE NIGHT. ALL MODELS POINT TOWARDS AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WARMS UP SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. A WAVE OF 500MB VORTICITY STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING AROUND 00Z, WITH A 70 TO 80 KNOT 500MB JET CURVING FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS JET WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL ALSO SHARPEN THE SHEAR PROFILE. HAVE OPTED TO PLACE T+RW(M) WEATHER TYPE IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 20Z FRIDAY THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK FACTOR FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHIFT HAS DECIDED TO PRODUCE A MULTIMEDIA BRIEFING AND WILL PLACE IT ON OUR WEB PAGE TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS TO THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 636 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 FRIDAY... FRIDAY MORNING WILL START WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS EDGING ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE. GENERAL 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT MORNING PRECIP SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN ERN NM WHERE THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL CAUSE THE LLJ TO BACK S-SELY FURTHER IMPROVING DEEP ASCENT. A SECONDARY BUT MORE CONDITIONAL AREA OF PRECIP /PERHAPS LEFTOVER FROM THU NIGHT/ APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE UNDER AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DIRECTLY UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. CONFIDENCE IS MOUNTING THAT MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WILL START THE MORNING MOSTLY DRY...BUT VERY HIGH MIXING RATIOS ADVECTING NORTH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG WITH PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE. AM SKEPTICAL OF STRATUS MIXING OUT IN THIS UNUSUALLY MOIST REGIME AS SHOWN BY THE NAM...SO HAVE NARROWED THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE TOMORROW IN LIGHT OF ABUNDANT CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COOLER TEMPS AND A RATHER PRONOUNCED EML...SBCAPE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION PROVIDED FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOPS. ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMUM MENTIONED EARLIER...A SEMI-DIFFUSE DRYLINE SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN FAR ERN NM WHERE IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED. IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 KNOTS PER THE GFS AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE NAM ACROSS OUR FAR NWRN COUNTIES MAY OPEN THE WINDOW TO A TORNADIC THREAT...BUT OVERALL SOUNDING STRUCTURES APPEAR TO FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS EARLY ON BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS. DMGG WIND THREAT LOOKS A BIT CONDITIONAL AS MUCH OF THE CWA RETAINS A STABLE EML JUST ABOVE 800MB THAT MAY SERVE TO DEFLECT CONVECTIVE GUSTS AND KEEP MOST STORMS ELEVATED. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 715 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 PERHAPS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY REGIONS. STORMS WILL INITIALLY EMERGE FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT A MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SURGES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MILD TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. REMAINING QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE EARLY DAY CONVECTION WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. STILL...SEVERE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVER OUR CWA SATURDAY. FWIW (and it probably isn't worth much), I just saw The Weather Channel give OKC a 4/10 TORCON rating for Saturday, along with Iowa. Interesting. Both LBB and AMA seem concerned about stratus and breaking out of it, especially further to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 The data on my workstation is shows the 12Z NAM trending slower with the sfc front...deeper troughing...and stronger wind fields...given the trends...if they continue...wouldn't be surprised (as SPC said) to see the MOD tomorrow. Best guess at this point would be from extreme southern Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin...southwest to eastern or northeastern Oklahoma for the MOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The data on my workstation is shows the 12Z NAM trending slower with the sfc front...deeper troughing...and stronger wind fields...given the trends...if they continue...wouldn't be surprised (as SPC said) to see the MOD tomorrow. Best guess at this point would be from extreme southern Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin...southwest to eastern or northeastern Oklahoma for the MOD. Yea I would agree with that, looking like one heck of a squall line is gonna erupt saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 The Amarillo...Perryton...Guymon area looks to be my chase area based on the road network and soundings...depending what some fellow chasers think that I'll be chasing with. Bufkit shows the warm front going through AMA at 6pm (at least this run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Tomorrow definitely has me nervous and envying Panhandle-based chasers who won't have to gamble much. I'm tried of seeing the NAM hold back on the jet streak just a touch longer each run, to the point where areas east of the I-27/US-287 corridor don't even see respectable deep-layer shear until late afternoon now. The AFDs regarding stratus and grunge speak for themselves; it is October, after all. I'm surprised even LBB is skeptical of clearing out down in their area, but I can definitely see a situation where no one north of I-40 destabilizes before nightfall. I'll just keep thinking happy thoughts of how 7 Nov turned out last year after some similar concerns -- though realistically, the upslope factor along the Caprock is just going to make grunge all that much tougher to break out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Tomorrow definitely has me nervous and envying Panhandle-based chasers who won't have to gamble much. I'm tried of seeing the NAM hold back on the jet streak just a touch longer each run, to the point where areas east of the I-27/US-287 corridor don't even see respectable deep-layer shear until late afternoon now. The AFDs regarding stratus and grunge speak for themselves; it is October, after all. I'm surprised even LBB is skeptical of clearing out down in their area, but I can definitely see a situation where no one north of I-40 destabilizes before nightfall. I'll just keep thinking happy thoughts of how 7 Nov turned out last year after some similar concerns -- though realistically, the upslope factor along the Caprock is just going to make grunge all that much tougher to break out of. Don't set yourself up for depression tomorrow night by using a "fluke" like November 7th as a guideline. <Yoda Voice> Only sadness will you find.</Yoda Voice> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Cantore is on the hype machine for Sat outbreak. I'm sorta perplexed what he's seeing. If anything SPC seems to be highlighting the wind potential.. as they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.