andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 00z NAM not budging, in fact, it's even faster than the 18z run (for Saturday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I don't understand the veering of the LLJ, can you explain that too me? Something to do with a SW flow at 850 mb advecting dry air into the warm sector from behind the dryline? The way the models build the SE ridge, they have it building over the nrn Gulf Coast region as the low to the N progresses NE. Above the sfc, where the geostrophic approximation becomes more valid with height, the flow is going to roughly follow the isobars/isoheights. For a situation with a SE ridge building along the Gulf Coast, those isobars/isoheights will be aligned from SW to NE and will be veering with time as the ridge builds. Thus, you get veering flow at 850mb, advection of drier air at 850mb, and all the other problems that have been discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The way the models build the SE ridge, they have it building over the nrn Gulf Coast region as the low to the N progresses NE. Above the sfc, where the geostrophic approximation becomes more valid with height, the flow is going to roughly follow the isobars/isoheights. For a situation with a SE ridge building along the Gulf Coast, those isobars/isoheights will be aligned from SW to NE and will be veering with time as the ridge builds. Thus, you get veering flow at 850mb, advection of drier air at 850mb, and all the other problems that have been discussed. gotcha, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I think it's too early to really call anything, considering that was one run from what has been a very consistent GFS with this storm. Also, it was an 18z run so take it with a grain of salt, if we continue to see the GFS come more in line with the euro, then i agree with your points above. If we see something similar to what the GFS has been advertising then IA/MO/NE are still in play. Agreed...until it gets sampled by the upper air network...I have the same approach. Oh please, old and tired. I feel compelled to bring dtk in here to debunk the myth of off-hour run uselessness. This isn't 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Fri looks quite good on the NAM/SREF--fairly early initiation. I still sorta like the Boise City, perhaps toward Guyman area as a ctr.. best area seems to be north Tx panhandle into far southeast KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I may admittedly be putting too much stock into the NAM but the overall impression I feel like I've been seeing is for the dryline to not be as strong as was once forecast and it seems like the models are forecasting the best backing to be with the pressure falls in the OK panhandle in a box roughly formed by AMA-Pampa-Boise City-Liberal (isallobaric wind FTW ). I'm just feeling like the extreme northern TX panhandle into extreme SW KS is where the best potential lies, moreso along the warm front than the dryline. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Fri looks quite good on the NAM/SREF--fairly early initiation. I still sorta like the Boise City, perhaps toward Guyman area as a ctr.. best area seems to be north Tx panhandle into far southeast KS. Southwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Southwest? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Fri looks quite good on the NAM/SREF--fairly early initiation. I still sorta like the Boise City, perhaps toward Guyman area as a ctr.. best area seems to be north Tx panhandle into far southeast KS. GMTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I may admittedly be putting too much stock into the NAM but the overall impression I feel like I've been seeing is for the dryline to not be as strong as was once forecast and it seems like the models are forecasting the best backing to be with the pressure falls in the OK panhandle in a box roughly formed by AMA-Pampa-Boise City-Liberal (isallobaric wind FTW ). I'm just feeling like the extreme northern TX panhandle into extreme SW KS is where the best potential lies, moreso along the warm front than the dryline. Thoughts? It's not worth much but I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Once again southeast of Guymon near Perryton, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I may admittedly be putting too much stock into the NAM but the overall impression I feel like I've been seeing is for the dryline to not be as strong as was once forecast and it seems like the models are forecasting the best backing to be with the pressure falls in the OK panhandle in a box roughly formed by AMA-Pampa-Boise City-Liberal (isallobaric wind FTW ). I'm just feeling like the extreme northern TX panhandle into extreme SW KS is where the best potential lies, moreso along the warm front than the dryline. Thoughts? From an actual EHI map, that would be pretty much correct. Hodos in that area are very long and very curved. (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Once again southeast of Guymon near Perryton, TX. Impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 It's not worth much but I agree 00z NAM is definitely faster, and I think it looks better for IA/MO/NE in my opinion in regards to a widespread severe weather event. Damaging wind and tornadoes for saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 00z NAM not budging, in fact, it's even faster than the 18z run (for Saturday). However, it really seems to be falling into line with the southern energy lagging way behind, similar to the 18z GFS in that regard. What caught my attention on this run was a weak sfc low appearing at 00z Sun along the Red River. I've been obnoxiously persistent in my pessimism for tornadic supercells along the DL Saturday due to low-level veering, but this is exactly the scenario that might change my mind a bit. If the look of the H5 evolution on the models this afternoon/evening is correct, I would favor northern TX into south-central OK as having the best chance for a surprise. The NAM actually shows a cap bust south of the KS/OK border, but the 12z ECMWF showed one or two explosive supercells in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 00z NAM is definitely faster, and I think it looks better for IA/MO/NE in my opinion in regards to a widespread severe weather event. Damaging wind and tornadoes. Well the veered low level winds would work against a tornado threat in that case, and potentially a severe threat at all by advecting a junky air mass into the warm sector that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Well the veered low level winds would work against a tornado threat in that case, and potentially a severe threat at all by advecting a junky air mass into the warm sector. With a 50kt llj, there would still be a number of tornadoes in a QLCS. I agree that does not favor discrete supercells obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 However, it really seems to be falling into line with the southern energy lagging way behind, similar to the 18z GFS in that regard. What caught my attention on this run was a weak sfc low appearing at 00z Sun along the Red River. I've been obnoxiously persistent in my pessimism for tornadic supercells along the DL Saturday due to low-level veering, but this is exactly the scenario that might change my mind a bit. If the look of the H5 evolution on the models this afternoon/evening is correct, I would favor northern TX into south-central OK as having the best chance for a surprise. The NAM actually shows a cap bust south of the KS/OK border, but the 12z ECMWF showed one or two explosive supercells in that area. Besides the fact that is my primary coverage area with Texas Storm Chasers, that would have the potential to be extremely high impact because of the huge crowds in the area for the OU/TX game. In fact, I-35 will be jammed packed. Obviously you already know that since you live in Norman, but I'm just stating it again for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Oh please, old and tired. I feel compelled to bring dtk in here to debunk the myth of off-hour run uselessness. This isn't 1985. don't always discount off-hour model runs. Only when they don't give you what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Crab fisherman? Nope. I entered the NWS as a Meteorological Technician before getting promoted to an Intern. Google search Cold Bay, Alaska (it's a very remote location). Here are some pics of the area. On youtube you can search cold bay weather balloon to see the video of me launching a weather balloon to see how remote and challenging it can be (windy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 With a 50kt llj, there would still be a number of tornadoes in a QLCS. I agree that does not favor discrete supercells obviously. The QLCS would still have to form...and I'm starting to think it won't. The best instability is going to lag the main sfc forcing for ascent (a prefrontal convergence zone), causing a messy warm sector, a veered out unstable airmass, no forcing in the unstable region, and thus, probably minimal to no convection in the airmass that would likely sustain severe storms. Instead, we'll have a bunch of clouds and crapvection in the moisture axis. For further reference, see 4/10/11 (in Illinois and srn WI) and 4/15/12 (Illinois/WI/IA/MN). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Besides the fact that is my primary coverage area with Texas Storm Chasers, that would have the potential to be extremely high impact because of the huge crowds in the area for the OU/TX game. In fact, I-35 will be jammed packed. Obviously you already know that since you live in Norman, but I'm just stating it again for everyone else. Yeah, I'm sure if this trend continues the media will have a field day. Right now I see it as very highly conditional, but as you said, if something did happen it would be about as high-impact as you can get along that stretch of I-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 00z NAM not budging, in fact, it's even faster than the 18z run (for Saturday). Disagree to some extent. Notice that the trough is more positively tilted and sheared by Saturday morning. The 00z run does leave more vorticity behind Saturday afternoon over the panhandles ... a la Euro and GFS. Just doesn't really look all that pretty this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 With a 50kt llj, there would still be a number of tornadoes in a QLCS. I agree that does not favor discrete supercells obviously. Trust me, I want the northern target to pan out, also... but the latest runs are simply not looking good for it, my friend. The strongest LLVL jet in the world won't help if the vertical structure is off and there is crapvection all over. Although, personally I like the 00z run for the north better than the 18z... vertical wind profile still sucks though, and is still unchaseable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Nope. I entered the NWS as a Meteorological Technician before getting promoted to an Intern. Google search Cold Bay, Alaska (it's a very remote location). Here are some pics of the area. On youtube you can search cold bay weather balloon to see the video of me launching a weather balloon to see how remote and challenging it can be (windy). Just watched the vid. It looks like it almost ended up in the ground, very windy conditions there. Probably a lot warmer where you are now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Disagree to some extent. Notice that the trough is more positively tilted and sheared by Saturday morning. The 00z run does leave more vorticity behind Saturday afternoon over the panhandles ... a la Euro and GFS. Just doesn't really look all that pretty this run lol I was talking more about the speed of the main upper level cyclone, but yes, it does look like bit more of a step towards recent Euro runs and the 18z GFS than I originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Just watched the vid. It looks like it almost ended up in the ground, very windy conditions there. Probably a lot warmer where you are now as well. Well it wasn't bad there normally...as it has warmer average temperatures in January that Detroit or Chicago (warming off of the Bering and Northern Pacific....but I love where I'm at now. Yeah it came within an inch of the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I was talking more about the speed of the main upper level cyclone, but yes, it does look like bit more of a step towards recent Euro runs and the 18z GFS than I originally thought. I think you're both right... this thing is just becoming ridiculously strung-out and positive-tilt as it ejects... even by 2012 standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I think you're both right... this thing is just becoming ridiculously strung-out and positive-tilt as it ejects... even by 2012 standards. Except that might actually do you a favor this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Really? That vorticity down south becomes the dominant upper low now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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