andyhb Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Regardless, the 12z GFS, doesn't appear to veer the winds as much in the warm sector east of the front either on Saturday, at least, not quite as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 4 KM NCEP NAM at 21Z Friday (3 PM MDT/4 PM CDT/5 PM EDT) with SBCAPE values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 4 KM NCEP NAM at 21Z Friday (3 PM MDT/4 PM CDT/5 PM EDT) with SBCAPE values. More realistic than the GFS's thermodynamic profile for the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 That looks pretty juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 4 KM NCEP NAM Simulated Reflectivity at 0Z Saturday (7 PM CDT Friday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 9Z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 12Z GFS continues to show decent shear in eastern Oklahoma for Saturday afternoon and evening. The concern with the previous set of soundings...and with these...is that they are forecast to be elevated...at least somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Saturday, as mentioned before, has eerily similar potential to 11/12/05 if everything times right. Take a look at this here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 Saturday, as mentioned before, has eerily similar potential to 11/12/05 if everything times right. Take a look at this here You have a point...and I did research that event yesterday. There are some similarities based of the event upper air maps...but there also some differences. I can post some Iowa area sounds if you'd like. Most of the talk has been about he panhandle for Friday. There will most likely be severe up there Saturday...but they'll be some short-lived tornadoes...however a fast moving squall line wind threat looks the be the bigger concern. The thing about eastern Oklahoma is there are similar helicity values...better instability...and slower storm motions. If there are any breaks in the clouds in the Iowa area to allow around 1500 j/kg of cape then it could get real interesting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 You have a point...and I did research that event yesterday. There are some similarities based of the event upper air maps...but there also some differences. I can post some Iowa area sounds if you'd like. Most of the talk has been about he panhandle for Friday. There will most likely be severe up there Saturday...but they'll be some short-lived tornadoes...however a fast moving squall line wind threat looks the be the bigger concern. The thing about eastern Oklahoma is there are similar helicity values...better instability...and slower storm motions. If there are any breaks in the clouds in the Iowa area to allow around 1500 j/kg of cape then it could get real interesting there. Yea I agree with everything you said there. Really don't have anything else to say lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Saturday, as mentioned before, has eerily similar potential to 11/12/05 if everything times right. Take a look at this here Synoptic wise it is eerily similar, but there's much more to the system than that. The models, as they stand now, are painting a very different mesoscale picture. At the moment, I'm afraid the models are showing something that's a convective mess in Iowa. Things very well could change... and I'm hoping to see a nice dry punch at the 750 mb level... then things could start to get more interesting. Also, hoping to see things a little less unidirectional. Also, interesting to note that the Euro is showing a positive tilt on Saturday, while the GFS goes slightly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 FWIW...the 12Z Euro is streaming on on my workstation. The new data has the dryline at 00Z New Mexico on a Roswell to Springer line in New Mexico. In comparison the GFS is about 100 miles further east...basically from just west of KHOB to KTCC at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 If the Euro verifies, I'm wondering how that will effect the evolution of things up north on Saturday. Due to school obligations, I cannot play the Friday stuff and I can realistically only get as far south as NE/IA on Saturday (not sure further south would even warrant a 10+ hour drive anyways). I do want a late season Saturday chase badly, but I'm just too worried of a convective linear mess right now. Iowa may have some discrete potential, but I'm really worried about instability and super strong forcing with not much cap. If that dry slot at 700 mb can jump in, clouds should clear out and we could see some really steep lapse rates with the cold air aloft, but that's a big if at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Nasty looking wind profiles on the 18z NAM for Friday evening in the TX/OK Panhandles and SW KS...will post momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Also, discussion from DDC, written by Umscheid: FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY:THE UPPER LOW AND MID LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DRAMATICALLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM 00-03Z WITH STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE TOWARD HIGHWAY 27 DURING THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY JOHNSON TO ELKHART. 0-1KM SRH WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH WITH 300-400 M2/S2 AS DYNAMIC LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OFF THE SURFACE TO THE TUNE OF 50-55 KNOTS. WITH THE ADVANCE OF 600 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE AND STRONG COLD FRONTAL FORCING...QUASI-LINEAR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH A TENDENCY FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY 02-05Z TIME FRAME WEST OF A GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL LINE. IF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 1200 TO 1500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE 02-05Z TIME FRAME...THE CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE SHEAR. IN FACT...JUST A QUICK GLANCE OF THE 18Z NAM MODEL THAT JUST ROLLED IN AT 2045Z SUGGESTS A MORE OMINOUS SCENARIO WITH SEVERE STORMS QUITE LIKELY WEST OF A DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND LINE AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RACES NORTH. WILL CARRY 50 TO 60 POPS FARTHER EAST BEYOND 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN FROM COLORADO DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. AS DEWPOINTS FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER 30S AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY AFTERNOON...CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Nasty looking wind profiles on the 18z NAM for Friday evening in the TX/OK Panhandles and SW KS...will post momentarily. Definitely. Via twisterdata, at 00Z it looks like the best sfc backing of the wind is in the OK panhandle (from what I saw via dragging-and-dropping - will examine BUFKIT later). This hodograph is at 00Z for right around Guymon, OK. Definitely leaning toward chasing now, especially if I could remain in a corridor around Guymon to Amarillo. Just have sunset to work against... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 18Z NAM profile for Perryton, TX at 7 PM Friday. Needless to say, quite impressive wind profile and hodograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Yeah pressures fall throughout the day across the OK/TX PH in response to the lee trof developing which keeps the sfc winds really backed along/east of the DL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Why do these things have to happen on workdays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Why do these things have to happen on workdays? You suddenly have the flu on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 326 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012 FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IS STILL THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...EXPECT ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...AND WIND FIELDS CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE SHEAR VALUES. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT LOW STRATUS AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT CONVECTION...COMBINED WITH A WARM MID LAYER COULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. ANOTHER SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR...INITIAL UPDRAFTS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME OF PERSISTING LONG ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. ALL THAT BEING SAID...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME TORNADO RISK. REGARDLESS OF THE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY A LINEAR COMPLEX WITH THE MAIN FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT AS WELL. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE SEVERE HAZARDS LOOK TO BE STRONG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 So I guess the Euro had the right idea for Saturday? This is practically unrecognizable as the same event compared to the same map from yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 So I guess the Euro had the right idea for Saturday? This is practically unrecognizable as the same event compared to the same map from yesterday's runs. Well, this is fairly common to see around this range. The system hasn't even been fully sampled yet. I suspect it will come back in line with where it was to some extent. That right there just doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Well, this is fairly common to see around this range. The system hasn't even been fully sampled yet. I suspect it will come back in line with where it was to some extent. That right there just doesn't make sense. Why does it not make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 18z GFS moved decidedly toward the Euro, shearing out the upper low and leaving a lobe of strong vorticity further south. This definitely changes things for those with interests in C/E OK on Saturday ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Wind profiles are much more impressive further south on Sat. with that new GFS run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I'm hoping even with the new parameters (LCLs at or below 1500M and MLCAPE at/above 500 J/Kg) that maxing out the Sig. Tornado ingredients scale means something good for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Well, I mean judging by the 18z NAM's parameters, I'd think we'd see some fairly beefy numbers even on the old thresholds. This timeline sort of reminds me of the 11/7 event last year, where, within the last 48-72 hrs, the instability numbers rose dramatically on modeling to go along with the already impressive shear, and the results spoke for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 18z runs looking more weaker for the northern target on Saturday, IMO. EDIT: wow... did I really just say more weaker? go me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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