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October 12-13th "Potential" Severe Outbreak


patrick7032

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Still would start around CVN on Friday with eyes looking further south. 18z trying to hint at a little bit of moisture mixing out at the sfc after 18z Friday sitting under the 850mb thermal ridge. Dryline doesn't really tighten up till late but with p-falls along the lee trof all the way down to sw TX, winds respond and you get enough convergence pluse the mountains will help.

I'd maybe even lean to play the Pecos Valley region for something isolated and a bit later. Tad more southwesterly flow at mid-levels and still 45kts of it with higher sfc theta-e as well. Don't know if CO comes in play...moisture doesn't get there till later. And just glancing at the 18z GFS coming out...it's much more aggressive, sfc boundary well north with 60 dews up into GLD. This is going to be a fun forecast.

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lol

"Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser

MAJOR tornado outbreak likely on Saturday from Iowa/Illinois all the way southwest to the southern MS River Valley.

I would not be surprised if this Friday-Saturday goes down as one of the most significant tornado outbreaks in years in the central U.S."

what a joke.

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"Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser

MAJOR tornado outbreak likely on Saturday from Iowa/Illinois all the way southwest to the southern MS River Valley.

I would not be surprised if this Friday-Saturday goes down as one of the most significant tornado outbreaks in years in the central U.S."

What a moronic thing to say, especially considering how many people follow/like him.

He is the JB of severe weather. It's an attention grabber if nothing else.

Yep agree completely

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If that's the case, then IMHO, this system will go to waste. Regarding Saturday, I've seen this song and dance far too many times before. It's just not going to work out, at least for chasers. The LLJ is sexy so no one can look away, but it's just not timed correctly -- plus, timing aside, I loathe such rapidly-lifting disturbances (as wxwatcher91 pointed out).

I'd almost put money down that the ECMWF is not progressive enough on Saturday, and that it will snap back to something closer to the GFS over the next 24 h. And even if it's dead accurate, the LLJ still veers too much along the dryline, especially if the dryline stays so far west. (The farther west you go, the less veering you can afford, because you're higher elevation and you've got the desert/Mexican plateau nearby to the SW).

The only thing staving off total depression right now in my eyes is that even with the slow EC soln, Friday still looks doable in NM. It would have to slow down a TON not to get good deep-layer shear to the TX/NM border by 00z Sat.

Why in the world would you discount saturday!? As DMX said, this is a similar setup to 11/12/05 in which a number of tornadic supercells formed in the dry slot of a deepening low pressure system in the Omaha Valley. A 60-70 kt LLJ combined with 1000 CAPE will get the job done, this very easily could produce a few tornadic storms wherever the dryline/wf intersection/triple point setup..

geesh

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"Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser

MAJOR tornado outbreak likely on Saturday from Iowa/Illinois all the way southwest to the southern MS River Valley.

I would not be surprised if this Friday-Saturday goes down as one of the most significant tornado outbreaks in years in the central U.S."

Apparently he has rather limited climo knowledge

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Why in the world would you discount saturday!? As DMX said, this is a similar setup to 11/12/05 in which a number of tornadic supercells formed in the dry slot of a deepening low pressure system in the Omaha Valley. A 60-70 kt LLJ combined with 1000 CAPE will get the job done, this very easily could produce a few tornadic storms wherever the dryline/wf intersection/triple point setup..

geesh

Calm down, he is talking about further south.

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Why in the world would you discount saturday!? As DMX said, this is a similar setup to 11/12/05 in which a number of tornadic supercells formed in the dry slot of a deepening low pressure system in the Omaha Valley. A 60-70 kt LLJ combined with 1000 CAPE will get the job done, this very easily could produce a few tornadic storms wherever the dryline/wf intersection/triple point setup..

geesh

Personally, I think the scenario you're describing represents the high end of Saturday's potential. I should have clarified that I was mainly talking from a chaser's perspective, and admittedly with some geographical bias. Given the current data, I don't see much motivation to travel to IA from long distance because of limited instability, unidirectional shear and ridiculous storm motions. However, for chasers based within a 200-mile radius of DMX, there's a chance perseverance will be rewarded. I'm just not convinced the odds of that are very high right now. The 2005 event, IIRC, worked out amazingly well and is one of those setups that probably could've gone to crap with the wrong flap of a butterfly wing the day before.

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Personally, I think the scenario you're describing represents the high end of Saturday's potential. I should have clarified that I was mainly talking from a chaser's perspective, and admittedly with some geographical bias. Given the current data, I don't see much motivation to travel to IA from long distance because of limited instability, unidirectional shear and ridiculous storm motions. However, for chasers based within a 200-mile radius of DMX, there's a chance perseverance will be rewarded. I'm just not convinced the odds of that are very high right now. The 2005 event, IIRC, worked out amazingly well and is one of those setups that probably could've gone to crap with the wrong flap of a butterfly wing the day before.

Yea I agree with you. That setup overachieved, and this one very well could too. We won't know till Saturday as we see what convective trends look like. I am from Central Illinois so I will definitely be giving this one a go.

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Personally, I think the scenario you're describing represents the high end of Saturday's potential. I should have clarified that I was mainly talking from a chaser's perspective, and admittedly with some geographical bias. Given the current data, I don't see much motivation to travel to IA from long distance because of limited instability, unidirectional shear and ridiculous storm motions. However, for chasers based within a 200-mile radius of DMX, there's a chance perseverance will be rewarded. I'm just not convinced the odds of that are very high right now. The 2005 event, IIRC, worked out amazingly well and is one of those setups that probably could've gone to crap with the wrong flap of a butterfly wing the day before.

Keep in mind, you aren't gonna need a whole lot of sun to get instability. That LLJ is gonna be streaming in the moisture, 1000-1500 cape is definitely achievable, especially as the low wraps in a dry slot...

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lol

"Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser

MAJOR tornado outbreak likely on Saturday from Iowa/Illinois all the way southwest to the southern MS River Valley.

I would not be surprised if this Friday-Saturday goes down as one of the most significant tornado outbreaks in years in the central U.S."

:axe:

This is what happens when your source of income depends on selling windshield wipers and having a PPV stream.

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Considering how much surface theat-e difference exists between KC (300) and ICT (340) (using today's GFS run at a 72 hour forecast) there will definitely be widespread elevated convection that will shift east and northeast. In this scenario areas south of here will clear out ahead of the front faster/longer...and with the 250mb jet centered over Kansas (this run) versus west of OKC (last run)...the best entrance region and instability seems to be co-located in Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas...where the best chance for strong/long track tornadoes would be. Until the system comes ashore and gets at least 2/3rds of itself sampled by RAOB data...it's anybody's game.

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I wouldn't waste my time.

I agree with everyone of yall, Timmer overhypes everything. But at the same time you do have to respect the man, he has gotten some of the best tornado footage in the history of storm chasing. Has he done some stupid things to get it? Yes, but regardless, his name is on a lot of clips. I'm not saying you have to like him, but you must respect him. He gets excited like everyone of us when we see a "potential" outbreak. Sometimes he turns out to be right, sometimes not. Some guys on here have prolly never even seen a tornado in their lifetime. Also, the man didn't go to OU and graduate by cheating, he obviously knows his stuff. Just my two cents.

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Considering how much surface theat-e difference exists between KC (300) and ICT (340) (using today's GFS run at a 72 hour forecast) there will definitely be widespread elevated convection that will shift east and northeast. In this scenario areas south of here will clear out ahead of the front faster/longer...and with the 250mb jet centered over Kansas (this run) versus west of OKC (last run)...the best entrance region and instability seems to be co-located in Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas...where the best chance for strong/long track tornadoes would be. Until the system comes ashore and gets at least 2/3rds of itself sampled by RAOB data...it's anybody's game.

When will the system be sampled by?

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Wow what a waste of money that would be to watch his live podcasts of him over-hyping everything.

I bought the first webisode.. It was pretty well done. They've got a solid production crew. Tho with all the free tornado vids day of hard to want to keep paying to watch his personal life unfold. But I digress..

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When will the system be sampled by?

The very eastern frindges are being sampled now...but the majority of the system will get sampled around 00z Friday. At that time both models have the system coming ashore between LAX and San Diego. That's another reason I'm starting to favor a slower speed...as going from LAX to Nebraska/Kansas 36-42 hours would be a bit fast given how wrapped up the system is (at least currently).

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lol

"Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser

MAJOR tornado outbreak likely on Saturday from Iowa/Illinois all the way southwest to the southern MS River Valley.

I would not be surprised if this Friday-Saturday goes down as one of the most significant tornado outbreaks in years in the central U.S."

His opinion is worthless now. To quote him: "You have gotta be kidding me!!!"

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lol

"Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser

MAJOR tornado outbreak likely on Saturday from Iowa/Illinois all the way southwest to the southern MS River Valley.

I would not be surprised if this Friday-Saturday goes down as one of the most significant tornado outbreaks in years in the central U.S."

Sent from my SCH-I535 2

Typical Reed Timmer. I wouldn't hold my breath for a major tornado outbreak up here in Iowa. It does seem kind of stupid to metaphorically push the panic button to all his followers 4 days in advance.

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I'm not so sure the storms are gonna be linear by the time they get to W TX. The jet configuration doesn't support massive lift, and the shear vectors are fairly near perpendicular to the dryline. I'll try to have some more detailed thoughts later, but I'm leaning toward Friday being a pretty significant day on the high plains, and probably more significant than Saturday.

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I'm not so sure the storms are gonna be linear by the time they get to W TX. The jet configuration doesn't support massive lift, and the shear vectors are fairly near perpendicular to the dryline. I'll try to have some more detailed thoughts later, but I'm leaning toward Friday being a pretty significant day on the high plains, and probably more significant than Saturday.

Agree with bolded. The only day I'm really looking at. I def see some discrete supercells Friday.

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