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October 12-13th "Potential" Severe Outbreak


patrick7032

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That disappeared quick, someone jump the gun or was it brief spin-up?

I just went back and looked at the level 2 Dual-Pol data. I think there was a tornado and a debris was thrown up but it did not occur near Willard. I believe the Tornado occurred about 6 miles WSW of the Airport at 1:45z. The debris then got carried by the strong low level winds (keeping its "ball" shape by the low level meso) over towards Willard, where it then got mixed up by the SGF WFO with the remaining mesocyclone for a tornado.

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Had a good chase today despite not seeing anything rotating. Pics will come later from the past two days, but we caught the "whale's mouth" storm up in Anadarko, and then managed to get south to the storm moving out of Wichita Falls. We got caught in the RFD where winds were reported at 80mph and it was definitely the heaviest rain/strongest wind I've ever seen. Was lucky enough to not get hailed on, though. :)

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I just went back and looked at the level 2 Dual-Pol data. I think there was a tornado and a debris was thrown up but it did not occur near Willard. I believe the Tornado occurred about 6 miles WSW of the Airport at 1:45z. The debris then got carried by the strong low level winds (keeping its "ball" shape by the low level meso) over towards Willard, where it then got mixed up by the SGF WFO with the remaining mesocyclone for a tornado.

post-741-0-67810200-1350189176_thumb.gif

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Yesterday:

Video of our cycling wall cloud:

8085020468_0009c30520_c.jpg

The wall cloud east of Hale Center, TX.

8085017350_ea7f12fd52_c.jpg

Brief funnel cloud east of Hale Center, TX.

8085014132_c80324668d_c.jpg

8085013189_62ed3fe5d6_c.jpg

Today:

Line of storms west of Anadarko, OK:

8084987131_e9687ae06c_c.jpg

8084983764_eeb04cdb52_c.jpg

The "Whale's Mouth":

8084979482_736346cda4_c.jpg

RFD rushing toward us at 60MPH in Wilson, OK:

8084975420_f045e52360_c.jpg

Full rainbow in Lone Grove, OK:

8084972613_884402c9a7_c.jpg

Overlooking north of Davis, OK:

8084967546_50acee34a4_c.jpg

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Good stuff... love the lightning under the lowering from yesterday. Was very persistent... we kept wanting to shoot it but couldn't find any good pulloffs and I was getting lazy by that point.

Regarding the Hale Co. storm yesterday, I do believe there were two brief tornadoes, but obviously neither was visually impressive in the least. The first was roughly 3-4 ESE Underwood, a very briefly-condensed funnel on the eastern side of the rotating wall cloud. The second was perhaps 10 min. later and ~7-8 E Underwood, in which the entire lowering contracted into a very diffuse, weak-looking multi-vortex for maybe 20 sec. There were several scud filaments dancing on and off the ground during that time. Both were examples of "technically tornadoes" that you almost feel guilty counting. Hell, they're officially my first OCT tubes, and I kind of wish I'd saved it for something more special. ;)

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post-741-0-67810200-1350189176_thumb.gif

EF-0

A BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO WITH WINDS ESTIMATED UP TO 80 MPH TOUCHED DOWN IN RURAL NEIGHBORHOOD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF WILLARD OFF STATE HWY AB AND FARM ROAD 94. SEVERAL TREES AND LARGE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN IN ALL DIRECTIONS. SEVERAL HOUSES HAD MINOR DAMAGE TO SIDING AND ROOF. A WOODEN DECK WAS LIFTED OFF THE GROUND AND MOVED FROM ITS ORIGINAL POSITION. PATH WAS 100 YARDS WIDE AND ABOUT A HALF A MILE LONG.

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Good catch there. In this case, it looks as if the strongly-veered LLJ may have carried multiple negative side effects. Interesting sounding, because typically I've seen this "problem" occur higher up -- e.g., more backed at 250 mb than 500 mb.

There's little doubt that the wind profile itself simply wasn't supportive of discrete tornadic supercells today. With the initial line around 1-2pm, it might have been plausible that too many cells fired in too close proximity and storm motion was too parallel to the initiating boundary. Later on, though, numerous more isolated cells developed over the open warm sector and would still take on the "messy" structure within 30-45 min.

Maybe up there...but we had a discrete TORNADIC SUPERCELL for over an hour. My WCM and I did the official storm survey today. Don't be surprised if we issue a statement tomorrow or Tuesday. Can't say why on the wait...but there are reasons. Below is warning text and some Stormlab images from the cell.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

334 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE STAMFORD MARINA...OR 8 MILES

NORTHEAST OF STAMFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...

POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

LAKE STAMFORD MARINA BY 340 PM CDT...

IRBY BY 355 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING

FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN

EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

708 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL SCHLEICHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 703 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELDORADO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...

POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

ELDORADO BY 725 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING

FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN

EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

730 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL SCHLEICHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 727 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS 3 MILES NORTH OF ELDORADO...OR NEAR ELDORADO...MOVING

EAST AT 30 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...

POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

*THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...

CENTRAL SCHLEICHER COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING

FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN

EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

755 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL SCHLEICHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 750 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS 4 MILES WEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF US-190 AND RANCH

ROAD 2084...OR 13 MILES EAST OF ELDORADO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...

POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

*THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...

EAST CENTRAL SCHLEICHER COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT

SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

755 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL SCHLEICHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 750 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS 4 MILES WEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF US-190 AND RANCH

ROAD 2084...OR 13 MILES EAST OF ELDORADO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...

POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

*THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...

EAST CENTRAL SCHLEICHER COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT

SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

post-767-0-62124700-1350277800_thumb.png

post-767-0-93713700-1350277814_thumb.png

post-767-0-05265900-1350278003_thumb.png

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Yesterday:

Video of our cycling wall cloud:

8085020468_0009c30520_c.jpg

The wall cloud east of Hale Center, TX.

8085017350_ea7f12fd52_c.jpg

Brief funnel cloud east of Hale Center, TX.

8085014132_c80324668d_c.jpg

8085013189_62ed3fe5d6_c.jpg

Today:

Line of storms west of Anadarko, OK:

8084987131_e9687ae06c_c.jpg

8084983764_eeb04cdb52_c.jpg

The "Whale's Mouth":

8084979482_736346cda4_c.jpg

RFD rushing toward us at 60MPH in Wilson, OK:

8084975420_f045e52360_c.jpg

Full rainbow in Lone Grove, OK:

8084972613_884402c9a7_c.jpg

Overlooking north of Davis, OK:

8084967546_50acee34a4_c.jpg

I must have passed you several times on both Friday and Saturday. I was the ford explorer sport with the lightbar on Saturday.

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I must have passed you several times on both Friday and Saturday. I was the ford explorer sport with the lightbar on Saturday.

Hm... I don't remember any specific cars. If it helps, I was in a red Jeep Liberty on Friday and a blue Honda Civic on Saturday. Such a small world. :lol:

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I do remember yall on Saturday. Were you guys between Lone Grove and Ardmore on Highway 70 on the right shoulder all out taking pictures?

We actually stopped at the Shell gas station in Lone Grove (as soon as you enter Lone Grove on 70 from the west) and stood there taking pictures where we hid from the RFD. Once it started getting dark we drove to I-35 through Lone Grove but yeah, we were stopped in the gas station there taking most of our photos. :lol:

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Can't wait to hear more about that. Those cells down near I-10 were beauts on radar. Seems to happen a few times a year without fail on days when everyone's focused up north.

Update on the storm surveys...although there were some signs of a possible tornado in El Dorado, it was somewhat inconclusive. As a result...we classified it as straight line wind damage.. The sheriff did report a large wall cloud, and we did get golf ball hail reports. We estimated winds of 75 mph. Unfortunately...the best rotational core went over open fields which mainly had small mesquite trees...and in some cases...the roads were private property (large ranches)...thus no way to survey it. My WCM and I are going to go over the 3:30 pm Haskell damage tomorrow. He and I have had conflicting schedules this week...and similar to the El Dorado damage it was mainly over open fields. However...one residence was directly in the path of the storm (another private ranch)...which the owner happened to be at the gas station and invited me onto the property to survey. I'll update here after conferring with my WCM.

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Update on the storm surveys...although there were some signs of a possible tornado in El Dorado, it was somewhat inconclusive. As a result...we classified it as straight line wind damage.. The sheriff did report a large wall cloud, and we did get golf ball hail reports. We estimated winds of 75 mph. Unfortunately...the best rotational core went over open fields which mainly had small mesquite trees...and in some cases...the roads were private property (large ranches)...thus no way to survey it. My WCM and I are going to go over the 3:30 pm Haskell damage tomorrow. He and I have had conflicting schedules this week...and similar to the El Dorado damage it was mainly over open fields. However...one residence was directly in the path of the storm (another private ranch)...which the owner happened to be at the gas station and invited me onto the property to survey. I'll update here after conferring with my WCM.

I had no idea it was so difficult to to storm surveys in rural areas. If you can't find the landowner to personally ask... do you send them a letter requesting access? They'd probably clean up the damage before contacting y'all. I wonder how many tornadoes end up going unreported...

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I had no idea it was so difficult to to storm surveys in rural areas. If you can't find the landowner to personally ask... do you send them a letter requesting access? They'd probably clean up the damage before contacting y'all. I wonder how many tornadoes end up going unreported...

No we don't send them a letter. If we can't find damage on public property/roads...then unless we're invited to survey the damage on private property (as I was - which down here is lucky to be invited) then it goes unreported. As such...it's considered a FALSE WARNING...even if it occurred.. Simply put...let's say you have a house on a ranch...and a tornado hits it. Your house can be relocated from Irion County to Concho County...and unless someone actually seen the tornado...or damage is found on public roads...THE TORNADO NEVER HAPPENED...even though in real life it did. It's as you said...one of the challenges of trying to verify warnings in rural areas. Any report is always very helpful...regardless of your relationship/title (i.e. storm chaser/general public/spotter/meteorologist...etc.).

Speaking on that topic...the Haskell county survey is complete. Although a tornado touchdown may have occurred...it would have done so mainly over open fields. Only one residence was affected...and while there were some tornadic signatures in the damage pattern...it was inconclusive. As such...we determined the damage was the result of damaging winds. Witnesses did report a rapidly rotating wall cloud with a funnel very near ground level, but no debris signature was observed.

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