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October 12-13th "Potential" Severe Outbreak


patrick7032

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

647 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN YOUNG COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 646 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF OLNEY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. OLNEY IS IN THE DIRECT

PATH OF THIS STORM...IF YOU ARE IN OLNEY...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

OLNEY AT 655 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST

FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A

MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

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Looking at the 18z sounding from OUN, it looks like the culprit for the messy storm structure (and lack of tornadoes) today may have been some backing in the midlevels. That can often cause precip to fall into updrafts and create a messy quasi-discrete storm mode (as what happened with 5/24/11).

last.gif

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I respect Reed a great deal, but I sure hope he rethinks saying "historic tornado outbreak" over Iowa 4 days ago.

Too much group think these days. Add in a quiet year and it was a perfect storm for expecting way too much. Though, here it was generally quite measured. If Brett's not excited... don't get excited. ;)

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Looking at the 18z sounding from OUN, it looks like the culprit for the messy storm structure (and lack of tornadoes) today may have been some backing in the midlevels. That can often cause precip to fall into updrafts and create a messy quasi-discrete storm mode (as what happened with 5/24/11).

last.gif

was literally just looking at that no more than 5 minutes ago lol

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I doubt that storm will come back. the updraft is zoinked.

Forgot to look at echo tops... yeah your right Ian, as soon as it occluded once it's becoming elevated and not tapping into that low level gulf moisture. It's "zoinked". Still I would imagine if you were in College Station at this hour there would be some nice swirly scud clouds.

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Looking at the 18z sounding from OUN, it looks like the culprit for the messy storm structure (and lack of tornadoes) today may have been some backing in the midlevels. That can often cause precip to fall into updrafts and create a messy quasi-discrete storm mode (as what happened with 5/24/11).

Good catch there. In this case, it looks as if the strongly-veered LLJ may have carried multiple negative side effects. Interesting sounding, because typically I've seen this "problem" occur higher up -- e.g., more backed at 250 mb than 500 mb.

There's little doubt that the wind profile itself simply wasn't supportive of discrete tornadic supercells today. With the initial line around 1-2pm, it might have been plausible that too many cells fired in too close proximity and storm motion was too parallel to the initiating boundary. Later on, though, numerous more isolated cells developed over the open warm sector and would still take on the "messy" structure within 30-45 min.

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