chase_stormz Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Forbes: That's a lot different from yesterday when he said not enough cold air aloft for a severe weather outbreak saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 The overall synoptic pattern on Saturday also reminds me a bit of the 11/12/05 event, where a localized tornado outbreak occurred over parts of Iowa, which included the damaging Woodward and Stratford tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I've been busy installing the chase gear back in the car so I haven't been putting much out, but I will remind everyone we have the Texas/OU Game in Dallas on Saturday with around 100,000 people expected plus all the partying across the D/FW Metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 The overall synoptic pattern on Saturday also reminds me a bit of the 1012/05 event, where a localized tornado outbreak occurred over parts of Iowa, which included the damaging Woodward tornado. Yea I can see that, expect it has potential to be a lot bigger of a severe weather outbreak than that. Right now I like the triple point, dryline/wf intersection in the Souix City, IA area for the best tornado potential, however that will change as the week progresses. Crapvection will change my target lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Very impressive numbers coming off the SREF considering this is the first run to have Friday in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Tony informed me that they have changed the parameters/thresholds on that (From 1000 J/kg MLCAPE to 500 and MLLCL heights from 1000 m to 1500 m, and looking at previous outbreak threads, that appears to be the case), which means seeing large numbers like this further out may be not as hard as it was in the past. Still, that is fairly impressive for 87 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I've been busy installing the chase gear back in the car so I haven't been putting much out, but I will remind everyone we have the Texas/OU Game in Dallas on Saturday with around 100,000 people expected plus all the partying across the D/FW Metroplex. Yes, I was going to mention that too. The DFW area should be way more congested than usual - but in the end maybe it'd take some people off the chase routes that otherwise would have been there. The game is at 11:00AM though, so the late afternoon timeframe could be a bit hectic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 just as I say I'm more interested in Friday, some decent changes on the Euro to make Saturday more interesting. That's what I'm starting to think too...and agree with what Forbes said in andyhb's post. The GFS and Euro both move the 500 and 250mb lows ashore around the same time and generally in the same location with very similar tracks...however the GFS really seems to accelerate the low after the 72-84 hour time frame from todays 12z run. The Euro maintains a fairly consistent wave speed with a slightly more amplified pattern...and ejects the low more slowly. If this solution was to verify...the eastern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma through the eastern Kansas where the 700...500...and 250 jets coincide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 That's what I'm starting to think too...and agree with what Forbes said in andyhb's post. The GFS and Euro both move the 500 and 250mb lows ashore around the same time and generally in the same location with very similar tracks...however the GFS really seems to accelerate the low after the 72-84 hour time frame from todays 12z run. The Euro maintains a fairly consistent wave speed with a slightly more amplified pattern...and ejects the low more slowly. If this solution was to verify...the eastern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma through the eastern Kansas where the 700...500...and 250 jets coincide Yeah this was my concern that I mentioned to you yesterday that it could slow down a touch with the GFS being overtly progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Tony informed me that they have changed the parameters/thresholds on that (From 1000 J/kg MLCAPE to 500 and MLLCL heights from 1000 m to 1500 m, and looking at previous outbreak threads, that appears to be the case), which means seeing large numbers like this further out may be not as hard as it was in the past. Still, that is fairly impressive for 87 hours out. That's highly annoying. Got pretty excited seeing that chart before I went to the next page and saw this -- I remember you posting a similar-looking SigTor map a few days before a certain event last fall. It was definitely tough to get more than 10-20% probs with the old method in the 2-3 day range, but that's kind of the point. I'm not sure how much value the new parameter set is. MLLCL of 1500 m is usually too high, and 500 J/kg may be a decent threshold in the Southeast, but not the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 That's highly annoying. Got pretty excited seeing that chart before I went to the next page and saw this -- I remember you posting a similar-looking SigTor map a few days before a certain event last fall. It was definitely tough to get more than 10-20% probs with the old method in the 2-3 day range, but that's kind of the point. I'm not sure how much value the new parameter set is. MLLCL of 1500 m is usually too high, and 500 J/kg may be a decent threshold in the Southeast, but not the Plains. Yeah, I find it quite frustrating, it seems that they nerfed their own product doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Yeah this was my concern that I mentioned to you yesterday that it could slow down a touch with the GFS being overtly progressive. If that's the case, then IMHO, this system will go to waste. Regarding Saturday, I've seen this song and dance far too many times before. It's just not going to work out, at least for chasers. The LLJ is sexy so no one can look away, but it's just not timed correctly -- plus, timing aside, I loathe such rapidly-lifting disturbances (as wxwatcher91 pointed out). I'd almost put money down that the ECMWF is not progressive enough on Saturday, and that it will snap back to something closer to the GFS over the next 24 h. And even if it's dead accurate, the LLJ still veers too much along the dryline, especially if the dryline stays so far west. (The farther west you go, the less veering you can afford, because you're higher elevation and you've got the desert/Mexican plateau nearby to the SW). The only thing staving off total depression right now in my eyes is that even with the slow EC soln, Friday still looks doable in NM. It would have to slow down a TON not to get good deep-layer shear to the TX/NM border by 00z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Going with the GFS' timing, the D5 outlined by the SPC seems reasonable perhaps southward into parts of Eastern OK/KS/W MO, although obviously for chasers like Brett this isn't very favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I've been busy installing the chase gear back in the car so I haven't been putting much out, but I will remind everyone we have the Texas/OU Game in Dallas on Saturday with around 100,000 people expected plus all the partying across the D/FW Metroplex. Do you think a whole lot of anything will really happen in DFW? I've been gathering that all the good stuff will stay west and then north of us, and the most we might get would be an overnight MCS. I sure wish I could drive out ahead of this thing but the intricacies of my schedule only allow me to chase on Sundays and Mondays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I'll preface my comment with this, just to keep myself out of trouble and out of my flame suit: I won't pretend to be a decent severe weather forecaster. I am a student so I have a general but ever-growing, meteorological background and a keen sense of observation, and that is what I most commonly do here, I just read and try and learn from those smarter than I. With that being said, Friday appears to me to be the more favorable day for tornadoes in E NM / W TX panhandle / SW OK and panhandle / SE CO / SW KS based on shear profiles and generated forecast soundings from twisterdata. Anti cyclone positioned over MS will allow moisture to be transported northward throughout the day, resultant 850/700/500mb temps aren't exceptionally cold but UVVs and Vorticity associated with the transient low will provide enough divergence aloft to overcome this. My issue with Saturday is the plethora of Vorticity and UVVs as the low deepens, which leads me to believe that anything that goes up discretely on Saturday will soon be followed by other convection and quickly congeal into a convective line. That and storm motions look like they'd be difficult to deal with in an area of the country that isn't as friendly to chasing as the SW is. Comments, corrections appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Probably a solid overnight MCS in western OK with some good lightning at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 FWIW... 12z GGEM much more in the line with the GFS timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I'll preface my comment with this, just to keep myself out of trouble and out of my flame suit: I won't pretend to be a decent severe weather forecaster. I am a student so I have a general but ever-growing, meteorological background and a keen sense of observation, and that is what I most commonly do here, I just read and try and learn from those smarter than I. With that being said, Friday appears to me to be the more favorable day for tornadoes in E NM / W TX panhandle / SW OK and panhandle / SE CO / SW KS based on shear profiles and generated forecast soundings from twisterdata. Anti cyclone positioned over MS will allow moisture to be transported northward throughout the day, resultant 850/700/500mb temps aren't exceptionally cold but UVVs and Vorticity associated with the transient low will provide enough divergence aloft to overcome this. My issue with Saturday is the plethora of Vorticity and UVVs as the low deepens, which leads me to believe that anything that goes up discretely on Saturday will soon be followed by other convection and quickly congeal into a convective line. That and storm motions look like they'd be difficult to deal with in an area of the country that isn't as friendly to chasing as the SW is. Comments, corrections appreciated. Agree mostly. Friday has looked like the better chase day for a while now.. only looking moreso that way as we close in. I see people talking about trying for both on Twitter etc (plus wishcasting a lot). If things stay as is looks like a waste of gas and missed sleep for frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 It was definitely tough to get more than 10-20% probs with the old method in the 2-3 day range, but that's kind of the point. I'm not sure how much value the new parameter set is. MLLCL of 1500 m is usually too high, and 500 J/kg may be a decent threshold in the Southeast, but not the Plains. And, to add on to that when we saw a 50 area on hour 87 prior to 4/27, we knew all hell could break loose.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 FWIW... 12z GGEM much more in the line with the GFS timing. The GGEM doesnt do well with southern events during the summer from what most of the guys at the office has told me. We really don't use it....we look at it but really rely on the GFS and EURO for long range events. In a day 4-5 range forecast usually all models are fast by 12 hours on average. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 FWIW... 12z GGEM much more in the line with the GFS timing. I'd argue that the GGEM is much much closer to the Euro on timing and evolution of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Yeah, if you look at 00z positions on the two other models in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I'd argue that the GGEM is much much closer to the Euro on timing and evolution of the system. Just going by the 00z Sun position of the ULL: GFS - just E of Sioux Falls GGEM - along the MO River west of Yankton ECMWF - between Hastings and Holdrege NE By that measure, the GGEM is about 60% GFS and 40% EC, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 I'd argue that the GGEM is much much closer to the Euro on timing and evolution of the system. True...I just don't have much faith in the GGEM. Most seem to go with the Euro over the GFS at the office...and since I'm still learning the models in this area...figured will follow the advice from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012 MUCH STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL COME INTO PLAY ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW DRAWS NEAR. A 100KT JET WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON FRIDAY BRINGING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. IN FACT...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE AROUND 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY FRIDAY EVENING. THESE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HIGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ON FRIDAY EVENING. AREAS GENERALLY LUBBOCK AND NORTH WOULD SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER AND SEVERE WEATHER. OBJECTIVE ANALOG GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS OCT 21 2010 IS A STRONG CANDIDATE FOR AN ANALOG AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012 FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN MINOR VARIATIONS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE NEW ECMWF CAME IN A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL A BIT FURTHER WEST (POSSIBLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS) FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ADDITIONALLY...A SLOWER SOLUTION TENDS TO BE FAVORED WITH STALLED WEST/SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOWS. ALL-IN-ALL...SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE HIGHER END...DUE TO STRONG FORCING AND 60-70 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF LOW-CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NE. A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE NORTHERN TX PNHDL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INTENSE H5 TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DEEPENING LEE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND TRANSPORT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF KS. THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 LOW WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND THE TX PNHDL. THESE SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY CONGEAL INTO A QLCS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. AS THE H5 TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO EASTERN NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EASTERN KS. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS AND MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO TRACKS THE UPPER LOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. Waiting to see what AMA says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Impressive discussion from DMX, and mentions the 11/12/05 analog I did earlier: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TODAY WILL FOCUS ON TRANSITION IN UPPER PATTERN FROM A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM...ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING OR MOISTURE IN THE STATE...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI BEFORE STALLING IN ADVANCE OF THE CALIFORNIA SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA EJECTS...THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. INITIALLY...THERE WILL BE A THETA-E SURGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AS THE INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. WIND PROFILES WILL BE STRONGLY VEERED OVERNIGHT AND WOULD BE EASILY SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SEVERE OVERNIGHT LYING WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. CERTAINLY AN ELEVATED HAIL STORM SEEMS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE HAIL SIZE MAY BE MARGINAL. SATURDAY COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE STATE. ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING BUT GRADUALLY PULLING NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH TIME. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 09.00Z EURO HAD A CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING A TROF AXIS/DRY LINE INTO WESTERN IOWA AROUND PEAK HEATING WITH A STRONG WIND PROFILE. HISTORICALLY...INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS SUFFICIENT IN THESE CASES FOR PRODUCING TORNADIC STORMS. NOVEMBER 12TH 2005 WAS SIMILAR TO THIS SYSTEM AND THAT SYSTEM EVENT HAD ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSHINE AFTER THE LOW OVERCAST CLEARED BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPED. THEREFORE...WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. ALREADY...12Z EURO RUN IN SLOWER AND WOULD KEEP THE WORST CONDITIONS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF IOWA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE END...THE SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012 FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS IS STILL THE PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. STILL A CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CAPPING THAT COULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE CONFLUENCE ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY CAPPING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES 30 TO 40 KT...INDICATING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE AN INCH WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND AT THIS TIME AS THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINE OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE PANHANDLES. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THUS THE TORNADO THREAT...APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. I think these cape values are WAY TOO LOW...and they are clearly going with the GFS cape forecasts. When compared to mesoanalysis...the GFS is usually 500 too low at 18z to over 1500 too low by 21z. This pattern has been seen many times this summer in my CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 The GFS also has 60s sfc dews and H85 dews of 12-15+ degrees C across much of AMA's CWA by 00z Friday, if you were to adjust that to combine with the GFS' low boundary layer temp bias, you get a substantially different environment to what they are putting across there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2012 FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS IS STILL THE PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. STILL A CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CAPPING THAT COULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE CONFLUENCE ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY CAPPING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES 30 TO 40 KT...INDICATING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE AN INCH WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND AT THIS TIME AS THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINE OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE PANHANDLES. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THUS THE TORNADO THREAT...APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. I think these cape values are WAY TOO LOW...and they are clearly going with the GFS cape forecasts. When compared to mesoanalysis...the GFS is usually 500 too low at 18z to over 1500 too low by 21z. This pattern has been seen many times this summer in my CWA. To be fair, I'm reading the wording to imply that a greater threat may exist, but it will be W of their CWA. That's certainly a possibility, although I think at least the westernmost column of Panhandle/South Plains counties will be in on it, too. Wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world to see the "storm of the day" 50-75 mi. W of the state line, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 lol "Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser MAJOR tornado outbreak likely on Saturday from Iowa/Illinois all the way southwest to the southern MS River Valley. I would not be surprised if this Friday-Saturday goes down as one of the most significant tornado outbreaks in years in the central U.S." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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