JoMo Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1051 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012 .DISCUSSION... A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY NE TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS MORNING...LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW AND 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ANALYZED FROM NW TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS EARLY ROUND OF STORMS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...AND WILL COMPLICATE THE SITUATION SOME FOR LATER TODAY AS IT COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT A WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN THAT REGARD...FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z NAM CONTINUING TO INDICATE A POCKET OF SFC-BASED LI OF -10 TO -12 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FROM 03-09Z AS MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SPREAD OVER THE AREA. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THIS TIME SUGGEST AN ELEVATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 1630z Outlook from SPC now includes 30% large hail risk, mainly in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 This sounding is looking sinister for Oklahoma City, OK valid at 10pm cdt tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Haven't looked at much yet but like southern KS, good p-falls now, winds should stay slightly backed, I hope. Nice moisture convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 There's zero directional shear in the 500-850 mb layer per RUC analysis, and short-term models do not suggest that to change through the day. The SPC outlook has taken some criticism and even I'll admit I'm surprised by their conservatism, but I mostly agree with it. Particularly with junk convection now overspreading the I-35 corridor and limiting the instability axis to W OK (and adjacent parts of NW TX and S KS), I'm just not feeling it. Anything substantial that happens today will have to hinge on localized backing, which I'm not sure will be more than transient given the firehose veered LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 There's zero directional shear in the 500-850 mb layer per RUC analysis, and short-term models do not suggest that to change through the day. The SPC outlook has taken some criticism and even I'll admit I'm surprised by their conservatism, but I mostly agree with it. Particularly with junk convection now overspreading the I-35 corridor and limiting the instability axis to W OK (and adjacent parts of NW TX and S KS), I'm just not feeling it. Anything substantial that happens today will have to hinge on localized backing, which I'm not sure will be more than transient given the firehose veered LLJ. I've been mostly in agreement with the SPC's forecasts for this event. Conservative with discussion on the upside risk seems to be the best way to go at this point. Upgrades need to wait until we're more into the nowcast range and can have a better look at the hand we've been dealt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 SW OK/NW TX, Watch Likely. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2045.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Yeah, there's a bit too much uncertainity at this point really to warrant an upgrade. Although if we can get any real directional shear, and some Instability, this event could turn out to be fairly significant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Tornado Watch in effect. http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0661.html 60/30 tornado probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Need moar backing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Discrete cells forming in the zone of clearing in sw OK. Won't be too much longer before svr warnings are issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Looks messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Sitting in Chickasha waiting to see what happens with these storms. From the looks of Spotter Network it seems we are not alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 The tail end charlie down near Altus looking good right now. TBSS at 14k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 The tail end charlie down near Altus looking good right now. TBSS at 14k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Sucks KFDR is down. And CASA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Apparently the OUN office can still see the FDR radar (per Facebook page) but I can't. ETA: NOUS64 KOUN 091220 FTMFDR Message Date: Oct 09 2012 12:29:33 THE KFDR RADAR IS DOWN FOR DUAL-POL MODIFICATION. COMPLETION IS EXPECTED ON OR A ROUND OCTOBER 16TH. FM/KOUN 0730CDT/1230Z 10/9/2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Twitter report of a non rotating wall cloud west of Albert, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Sucks KFDR is down. And CASA. KFDR is up and running, OUN just posted a picture on their facebook page. However, the data is not being sent over NOAAPort, just locally to OUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Pic of a wall cloud near Binger, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Twitter report of a non rotating wall cloud west of Albert, OK. Binger Cell: Looked good for 2 frames, now it looks like its going to get wiped by a OFB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 storms in n tx are staying discrete better.. maybe a few popping se of the line. motions like 65 mph.. fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...NWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 661... VALID 131955Z - 132130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 661 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS FROM SWRN OK TO THE TX BIG COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE E/NEWD WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. CONCERN IS ALSO INCREASING OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS IN S-CNTRL OK. WFO WW EXTENSION OR A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE ARE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR AVK TO BGS. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED THROUGH THE 80S IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH STORM-SCALE INTERFERENCE/CLUSTERING MAY TEND TO LIMIT A MORE INTENSE THREAT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ALL TYPES OF SEVERE. ON/NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF THE WW...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS INTENSIFIED IN S-CNTRL OK. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS FARTHER WEST...STRONG LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS SAMPLED IN THE PURCELL OK PROFILER HAS YIELDED AROUND 30 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AMIDST A RICH PW AIR MASS OF 1.75 IN THE 18Z OUN RAOB. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO AND AN ATTENDANT RISK OF A TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 The Purcell Profilier mentioned in the SPC Meso Disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Almost every chaser is sharing whales mouth pics. That cell pulling away from Lawton looks a smidge more interesting last few scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 KFDR is up and running, OUN just posted a picture on their facebook page. However, the data is not being sent over NOAAPort, just locally to OUN. The KFDR radar is up on GRlevel3 at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Storm north of Stamford TX looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Yup, KFDR up on Radarscope also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Yeah. The stuff in northern Texas looks the best. Going to be interesting to see if storms can remain discrete the next few hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Storm north of Stamford TX looks good. WFUS54 KSJT 132034 TORSJT TXC207-132100- /O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0025.121013T2034Z-121013T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 334 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 400 PM CDT * AT 332 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE STAMFORD MARINA...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF STAMFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE... POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING. * THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR... LAKE STAMFORD MARINA BY 340 PM CDT... IRBY BY 355 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. && LAT...LON 3300 9948 3295 9965 3296 9978 3308 9988 3341 9948 TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 236DEG 34KT 3306 9972 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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