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October 12-13th "Potential" Severe Outbreak


patrick7032

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

1051 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT

RAPIDLY NE TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS MORNING...LIKELY BEING

ENHANCED BY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN SSW FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER

LOW AND 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ANALYZED FROM NW TEXAS THROUGH

CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS EARLY ROUND OF STORMS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE

SEVERE WEATHER...AND WILL COMPLICATE THE SITUATION SOME FOR LATER

TODAY AS IT COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...ALL

INDICATIONS ARE THAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE ATMOSPHERE

SHOULD RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT A

WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING

AND OVERNIGHT. IN THAT REGARD...FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING

AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z NAM CONTINUING TO INDICATE A POCKET

OF SFC-BASED LI OF -10 TO -12 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FROM 03-09Z AS

MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SPREAD OVER THE AREA. STRENGTHENING LOW

LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THIS TIME SUGGEST AN ELEVATED TORNADO

THREAT SHOULD BE CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

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There's zero directional shear in the 500-850 mb layer per RUC analysis, and short-term models do not suggest that to change through the day. The SPC outlook has taken some criticism and even I'll admit I'm surprised by their conservatism, but I mostly agree with it. Particularly with junk convection now overspreading the I-35 corridor and limiting the instability axis to W OK (and adjacent parts of NW TX and S KS), I'm just not feeling it. Anything substantial that happens today will have to hinge on localized backing, which I'm not sure will be more than transient given the firehose veered LLJ.

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There's zero directional shear in the 500-850 mb layer per RUC analysis, and short-term models do not suggest that to change through the day. The SPC outlook has taken some criticism and even I'll admit I'm surprised by their conservatism, but I mostly agree with it. Particularly with junk convection now overspreading the I-35 corridor and limiting the instability axis to W OK (and adjacent parts of NW TX and S KS), I'm just not feeling it. Anything substantial that happens today will have to hinge on localized backing, which I'm not sure will be more than transient given the firehose veered LLJ.

I've been mostly in agreement with the SPC's forecasts for this event. Conservative with discussion on the upside risk seems to be the best way to go at this point. Upgrades need to wait until we're more into the nowcast range and can have a better look at the hand we've been dealt.

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Apparently the OUN office can still see the FDR radar (per Facebook page) but I can't.

ETA:

NOUS64 KOUN 091220

FTMFDR

Message Date: Oct 09 2012 12:29:33

THE KFDR RADAR IS DOWN FOR DUAL-POL MODIFICATION. COMPLETION IS EXPECTED ON OR A

ROUND OCTOBER 16TH. FM/KOUN 0730CDT/1230Z 10/9/2012.

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ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0255 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 661...

VALID 131955Z - 132130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 661 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS FROM SWRN OK TO

THE TX BIG COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE E/NEWD WITH AN INCREASING

RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. CONCERN IS ALSO

INCREASING OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF PRE-FRONTAL

TSTMS IN S-CNTRL OK. WFO WW EXTENSION OR A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH

ISSUANCE ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM

NEAR AVK TO BGS. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY

ALONG THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED THROUGH THE 80S

IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.

ALTHOUGH STORM-SCALE INTERFERENCE/CLUSTERING MAY TEND TO LIMIT A

MORE INTENSE THREAT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR

ALL TYPES OF SEVERE.

ON/NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF THE WW...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS INTENSIFIED IN

S-CNTRL OK. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS FARTHER

WEST...STRONG LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS SAMPLED IN THE PURCELL OK PROFILER

HAS YIELDED AROUND 30 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AMIDST A RICH PW AIR MASS OF

1.75 IN THE 18Z OUN RAOB. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN

EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO AND AN ATTENDANT RISK OF A

TORNADO.

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Storm north of Stamford TX looks good.

WFUS54 KSJT 132034

TORSJT

TXC207-132100-

/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0025.121013T2034Z-121013T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

334 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE STAMFORD MARINA...OR 8 MILES

NORTHEAST OF STAMFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...

POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

LAKE STAMFORD MARINA BY 340 PM CDT...

IRBY BY 355 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING

FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN

EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9948 3295 9965 3296 9978 3308 9988

3341 9948

TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 236DEG 34KT 3306 9972

$$

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