andyhb Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Also, our supercell in Eastern NM has recently produced: SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 838 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012 NMC025-130300- /O.CON.KMAF.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-121013T0300Z/ LEA NM- 838 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR EAST CENTRAL LEA COUNTY... AT 832 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF MCDONALD...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF LOVINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE...GLADIOLA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Also, our supercell in Eastern NM has recently produced: Wish it was closer to a radar site. It's almost equal distance from the 3 closest sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 As its getting closer to the Lubbock site, the hook is becoming more apparent. This thing has been producing on and off for a little over an hour now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 OUN Update: .DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS SPAWNED BY HEATING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. MOST QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MUCH LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN OK. POPS ARE A BIT TRICKY FOR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MOST OF THE MODELS QPF APPEAR A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE FOR OUR WESTERN CWA TONIGHT...SINCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NNW AND WEST OF OUR FA. CONVECTION IS NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS LOW FROM SE CO TO JUST WEST OF THE PANHANDLE...BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH/LIFT NORTHEAST REMAINING OUTSIDE OF OK. HAVE KEPT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR NW OK THIS EVENING AS A RESULT...BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBdhiTCKEQs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Great structure on that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Also, to accent my concerns for tomorrow, the 00z GFS QPF seems to indicate a supercell initiating right off the Wichita Mountains and moving northeast by 15z tomorrow, we all know where that goes... Obviously not to be taken completely literally, but signals like that are concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Loving the supercell approaching Lubbock. It's been going strong for awhile as others have mentioned. Drummond is still on it. Lots of lightning and nice structure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 If anyone's up and still watching, those new cells NW of Clovis are in a pretty good environment at the moment. Already showing small hooks on both cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 A few thoughts before bedtime on tomorrow: 1) The ceiling for tomorrow is much, much greater than I originally anticipated. Morning convection doesn't outright ruin severe weather setups. Their associated cold pools do. If you don't amass an MCS with a large enough, strong enough cold pool, you're not going to get the perturbations in the wind field or the retarded destabilization you may anticipate. 2) The potential for a bonafide tornado outbreak in Oklahoma and srn Kansas has increased substantially. Low-level moisture, once a substantial concern with this system, is solidly in the positive category. For example, Midland/Odessa had a 15C 850mb dewpoint on their 00z sounding. Not too shabby. Most sounding sites across the southern and even central Plains boasted 12-16C 850mb dewpoints. The westward extent of high dewpoint air also mitigates some concern about the mixing of drier air in the upper PBL, since dry air has to be advected farther, thus making veering winds slightly less of a concern. With that said, the veering of the winds tomorrow doesn't look to be nearly as substantial as it did earlier this week, owing to the isallobaric response of the winds to the southern low and stronger jet stream disturbance. Having quelled some of the fears regarding veer low-level flow, let's consider everything else. Some are skeptical about the amount of instability that will be left behind the morning convection. Point 1 of this discussion is important here. Though convection is slowly on the increase in Texas, it is not forming into a massive MCS/MCC with a giant cold pool. If convection remains cellular and sans a large cold pool, the 1500-2000J/kg CAPE values on the NAM and RAP are very realistic, given 500mb temps and moisture in the low-levels. Of course, having addressed moisture and instability, we need to address source of lift and shear. Source of lift is pretty much a no-brainer: vort max associated with the shortwave and the dryline at the surface. Deep-layer shear is also a no-brainer with the jet streak in place. Low-level shear has been the concern of late. But again, let's return to point 1. Wind fields will recover quickly after convection if the convection does not have a large, pressure/density-altering cold pool. Thus, I wouldn't expect sfc winds to remain veered out well after the passage of the early convection tomorrow. Add these pieces together, and you have what I legitimately believe would be a good shot at a moderate-risk caliber tornado outbreak from Emporia KS southward to the Red River tomorrow. I would hesitate pulling a moderate risk trigger, however, until I was sure that a large cold pool didn't coalesce overnight tonight. 3) The northern target also has seen an increase in its threat level. The better than expected moisture return thus far seemingly assures adequate moisture and a lack of mixing out across IA, wrn IL, and nrn MO tomorrow. The right-entrance region of a jet streak will be in this vicinity, providing a source of lift. Additionally, fairly cold temps aloft will promote moderate instability across the region. Though I would expect somewhat more linear activity in this region due to the more parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vectors to the front, the large hodos still would support isolated supercell and tornado activity. Bottom line: I give in at least a 60/40 probability that tomorrow ends up a moderate risk at some point. It could be IA/MO/wrn IL for wind, OK/srn KS for tornadoes, or both. Either way, tomorrow will likely be quite a bit more substantial than today. The setup, as a whole, is somewhat reminiscent of some of the wintertime tornado events I've studied, with the two pieces of jet energy, the dual lows, the NE-SW front, and a bimodal threat of severe. There are some differences (the Plains trough is stronger than with the cases I've studied) but there are some good similarities too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 A few thoughts before bedtime on tomorrow: 1) The ceiling for tomorrow is much, much greater than I originally anticipated. Morning convection doesn't outright ruin severe weather setups. Their associated cold pools do. If you don't amass an MCS with a large enough, strong enough cold pool, you're not going to get the perturbations in the wind field or the retarded destabilization you may anticipate. 2) The potential for a bonafide tornado outbreak in Oklahoma and srn Kansas has increased substantially. Low-level moisture, once a substantial concern with this system, is solidly in the positive category. For example, Midland/Odessa had a 15C 850mb dewpoint on their 00z sounding. Not too shabby. Most sounding sites across the southern and even central Plains boasted 12-16C 850mb dewpoints. The westward extent of high dewpoint air also mitigates some concern about the mixing of drier air in the upper PBL, since dry air has to be advected farther, thus making veering winds slightly less of a concern. With that said, the veering of the winds tomorrow doesn't look to be nearly as substantial as it did earlier this week, owing to the isallobaric response of the winds to the southern low and stronger jet stream disturbance. Having quelled some of the fears regarding veer low-level flow, let's consider everything else. Some are skeptical about the amount of instability that will be left behind the morning convection. Point 1 of this discussion is important here. Though convection is slowly on the increase in Texas, it is not forming into a massive MCS/MCC with a giant cold pool. If convection remains cellular and sans a large cold pool, the 1500-2000J/kg CAPE values on the NAM and RAP are very realistic, given 500mb temps and moisture in the low-levels. Of course, having addressed moisture and instability, we need to address source of lift and shear. Source of lift is pretty much a no-brainer: vort max associated with the shortwave and the dryline at the surface. Deep-layer shear is also a no-brainer with the jet streak in place. Low-level shear has been the concern of late. But again, let's return to point 1. Wind fields will recover quickly after convection if the convection does not have a large, pressure/density-altering cold pool. Thus, I wouldn't expect sfc winds to remain veered out well after the passage of the early convection tomorrow. Add these pieces together, and you have what I legitimately believe would be a good shot at a moderate-risk caliber tornado outbreak from Emporia KS southward to the Red River tomorrow. I would hesitate pulling a moderate risk trigger, however, until I was sure that a large cold pool didn't coalesce overnight tonight. 3) The northern target also has seen an increase in its threat level. The better than expected moisture return thus far seemingly assures adequate moisture and a lack of mixing out across IA, wrn IL, and nrn MO tomorrow. The right-entrance region of a jet streak will be in this vicinity, providing a source of lift. Additionally, fairly cold temps aloft will promote moderate instability across the region. Though I would expect somewhat more linear activity in this region due to the more parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vectors to the front, the large hodos still would support isolated supercell and tornado activity. Bottom line: I give in at least a 60/40 probability that tomorrow ends up a moderate risk at some point. It could be IA/MO/wrn IL for wind, OK/srn KS for tornadoes, or both. Either way, tomorrow will likely be quite a bit more substantial than today. The setup, as a whole, is somewhat reminiscent of some of the wintertime tornado events I've studied, with the two pieces of jet energy, the dual lows, the NE-SW front, and a bimodal threat of severe. There are some differences (the Plains trough is stronger than with the cases I've studied) but there are some good similarities too. Excellent Write Up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Great post Tony, agreed on all counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 A few thoughts before bedtime on tomorrow: 1) The ceiling for tomorrow is much, much greater than I originally anticipated. Morning convection doesn't outright ruin severe weather setups. Their associated cold pools do. If you don't amass an MCS with a large enough, strong enough cold pool, you're not going to get the perturbations in the wind field or the retarded destabilization you may anticipate. 2) The potential for a bonafide tornado outbreak in Oklahoma and srn Kansas has increased substantially. Low-level moisture, once a substantial concern with this system, is solidly in the positive category. For example, Midland/Odessa had a 15C 850mb dewpoint on their 00z sounding. Not too shabby. Most sounding sites across the southern and even central Plains boasted 12-16C 850mb dewpoints. The westward extent of high dewpoint air also mitigates some concern about the mixing of drier air in the upper PBL, since dry air has to be advected farther, thus making veering winds slightly less of a concern. With that said, the veering of the winds tomorrow doesn't look to be nearly as substantial as it did earlier this week, owing to the isallobaric response of the winds to the southern low and stronger jet stream disturbance. Having quelled some of the fears regarding veer low-level flow, let's consider everything else. Some are skeptical about the amount of instability that will be left behind the morning convection. Point 1 of this discussion is important here. Though convection is slowly on the increase in Texas, it is not forming into a massive MCS/MCC with a giant cold pool. If convection remains cellular and sans a large cold pool, the 1500-2000J/kg CAPE values on the NAM and RAP are very realistic, given 500mb temps and moisture in the low-levels. Of course, having addressed moisture and instability, we need to address source of lift and shear. Source of lift is pretty much a no-brainer: vort max associated with the shortwave and the dryline at the surface. Deep-layer shear is also a no-brainer with the jet streak in place. Low-level shear has been the concern of late. But again, let's return to point 1. Wind fields will recover quickly after convection if the convection does not have a large, pressure/density-altering cold pool. Thus, I wouldn't expect sfc winds to remain veered out well after the passage of the early convection tomorrow. Add these pieces together, and you have what I legitimately believe would be a good shot at a moderate-risk caliber tornado outbreak from Emporia KS southward to the Red River tomorrow. I would hesitate pulling a moderate risk trigger, however, until I was sure that a large cold pool didn't coalesce overnight tonight. 3) The northern target also has seen an increase in its threat level. The better than expected moisture return thus far seemingly assures adequate moisture and a lack of mixing out across IA, wrn IL, and nrn MO tomorrow. The right-entrance region of a jet streak will be in this vicinity, providing a source of lift. Additionally, fairly cold temps aloft will promote moderate instability across the region. Though I would expect somewhat more linear activity in this region due to the more parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vectors to the front, the large hodos still would support isolated supercell and tornado activity. Bottom line: I give in at least a 60/40 probability that tomorrow ends up a moderate risk at some point. It could be IA/MO/wrn IL for wind, OK/srn KS for tornadoes, or both. Either way, tomorrow will likely be quite a bit more substantial than today. The setup, as a whole, is somewhat reminiscent of some of the wintertime tornado events I've studied, with the two pieces of jet energy, the dual lows, the NE-SW front, and a bimodal threat of severe. There are some differences (the Plains trough is stronger than with the cases I've studied) but there are some good similarities too. Agree on all counts. The rain showers we're having right now here in Iowa are really moistening up the atmosphere. Dew points have gone up from the upper teens 6 hours ago now to the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 D1....hmmm: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN NOW OVER WRN CONUS IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH PERIOD. WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OVER ERN UT/WRN CO REGION -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CO BY START OF PERIOD...DEVOLVING TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 14/00Z...EXPECT HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH SLGT POSITIVE TILT...FROM S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB ACROSS WRN KS...TX PANHANDLE...AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. THIS PERTURBATION WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED WITH TIME THEREAFTER...BUT ALSO...WILL LINK WITH NRN-STREAM FLOW BELT AND DEAMPLIFY. TROUGH SHOULD BE CROSSING WRN OZARKS...WRN MO...AND IA BY 14/12Z. AT SFC...PAC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE EWD OUT OF ROCKIES...WITH ATTACHED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA REGION BY 14/00Z...AND FRONT SWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK AND TRANS-PECOS AREA OF W TX. BY LATE AFTERNOON...DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT PAC FRONT OBLIQUELY OVER NWRN OR WRN OK...AND EXTEND SSWWD ACROSS NW TX AND PERMIAN BASIN REGION. DRYLINE AND PAC FRONT SHOULD MERGE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. MEANWHILE...DIFFUSE WARM FRONT -- NOW LOCATED OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN OK AND SRN AR -- IS FCST TO MOVE OR REDEVELOP NWD RAPIDLY ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN PERIOD. WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SFC LOW ACROSS NRN IA AND SRN WI BY 14/00Z. BY END OF PERIOD...EXPECT PRIMARY SFC LOW OVER NWRN IL/SWRN WI REGION...WITH WARM FRONT ENEWD OVER LOWER MI...AND COLD FRONT OVER NRN/WRN MO...ERN OK...AND W-CENTRAL TX. ...PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... BAND OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT START OF PERIOD FROM PORTIONS W-CENTRAL TX NNEWD ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK...INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL KS AND PERHAPS FARTHER NE. RELATED ANVIL SHIELD WILL SUBDUE PACE OF INSOLATION IN ITS INFLOW REGION. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SLOW SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD FAVORABLY LARGE BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT GROWING SVR THREAT WITH TIME THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS BAND MOVES EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA. BACKBUILDING WITH TIME ALSO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS RIO GRANDE. FURTHERMORE...SOME PROGS SUGGEST MID-LATE AFTERNOON QUASI-LINEAR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY AND ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS KS/NWRN OK. WIDTH AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY DESTABILIZATION CORRIDOR BEHIND INITIAL/PRIMARY TSTM BAND IS QUITE QUESTIONABLE ATTM...THOUGH THIS AREA GENERALLY IS COVERED BY UNCONDITIONAL...MRGL TO SLGT-RISK LEVEL PROBABILITIES THAT ALREADY ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER TSTMS. PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY OF THE ABOVE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH QUASI-LINEAR MODES DOMINANT FOR MOST OF PERIOD. NONETHELESS...FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS CATEGORICAL HAIL RISK. ANY SUCH SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED QLCS CIRCULATIONS...COLLECTIVELY OFFER RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL AT LEAST BETWEEN NW TX AND WRN MO...WHERE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE MOST LIKELY TO JUXTAPOSE WITH FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION. TORNADO THREAT FARTHER NE AND SW...WHILE NONZERO...IS MORE CONDITIONAL. OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD OVER MOST OF THIS AREA AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES...AND AS PRIMARY MID-UPPER WAVE DEAMPLIFIES. THREAT MAY PERSIST LONGEST OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS S TX INTO N-CENTRAL/NE TX AND SERN OK...WHERE LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL REMAIN HIGHEST IN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING. ...NRN MO/ERN NEB TO SWRN WI...NWRN IL... SCATTERED TSTMS MAY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY IN PERIOD...PERHAPS AS EXTENSION OF ACTIVITY NOW CROSSING PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SOME ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP INTO AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ADVECTION COULD INTRODUCE SFC-BASED PARCELS TO CONVECTIVE INFLOW REGION. SEPARATE/NNE-SSW ALIGNED BELT OF TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS MO/IA AND SHIFT EWD. AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR OVER WARM SECTOR IN THIS REGION...ALBEIT EXHIBITING SOME BACKING WITH HEIGHT IN MIDLEVELS COMMON TO QUASI-LINEAR EVENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS INVOF WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW. MOST PROGS ALSO INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF SUFFICIENT SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...E.G. 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE PREDICTED BY NAM. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION MAY BE PRECLUDED BY PRECURSORY PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM UPSHEAR AREAS OF CENTRAL PLAINS DURING MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY ENHANCED SVR WIND POTENTIAL YET MAY DEVELOP POLEWARD OF PRESENT 30% LINE...EXTENT/TIMING REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN TO EXTEND THAT PROBABILITY FARTHER NNE ATTM. ..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 10/13/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Heck, they don't seem too confident about the tornado risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Yeah I thought "hmm" as well. I looked at the GREarth Hi-res model. It does have the storms currently forming across W Kansas right now moving to the east tonight and ending up across far SE Kansas by 17z. It fires up additional storms behind this 'blob' across central KS/OK by I think 23z or so and pushes them east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Heck, they don't seem too confident about the tornado risk. I took that more as they aren't quite ready to jump on board, but recognize that if morning precipitation doesn't keep the atmosphere from destabilizing then tornadoes are a definite possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 I thought hmmm as well. Looks like a very cautious outlook to me, which isn't a bad thing at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Latest RAP's 0-3 km EHI at 22z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Long day, but just arrived back at OUN after snagging a couple brief/bird-fart tornadoes on the supercell N of LBB. Haven't done a detailed analysis of model data yet, but from what I'm seeing on the RAP/RUC/HRRR, I doubt that low-level flow will be backed enough to support a significant tornado threat tomorrow along the dryline. The short-range models all show H85 flow almost due SW across all of OK and C/E KS, which isn't going to cut it. In addition, the LLJ axis appears to shift east rather early. It's possible their solutions will change radically in the morning after 12z soundings, but I doubt it. Up in 7 hours or so to check, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Long day, but just arrived back at OUN after snagging a couple brief/bird-fart tornadoes on the supercell N of LBB. Haven't done a detailed analysis of model data yet, but from what I'm seeing on the RAP/RUC/HRRR, I doubt that low-level flow will be backed enough to support a significant tornado threat tomorrow along the dryline. The short-range models all show H85 flow almost due SW across all of OK and C/E KS, which isn't going to cut it. In addition, the LLJ axis appears to shift east rather early. It's possible their solutions will change radically in the morning after 12z soundings, but I doubt it. Up in 7 hours or so to check, regardless. The thing is, with the instability/deep layer moisture built up across Southern TX (thanks to the trajectory of moisture return today), the veering H85 flow might not be as big of a problem as one might think. In addition, the SW/SSW flow at H85 combined with due south/potentially locally backed sfc winds will help enhance LL directional shear. Although I guess it could take away from convergence and create a potentially more linear based threat, but I still have a feeling the mesoscale may throw in a few more wrinkles before the event this afternoon/evening begins. Also, looking at current radar trends, I have strong doubts whether the ongoing convection is going to affect much of the warm sector further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 To help accent Tony's point earlier, here's the H85 dewpoints from the latest RAP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Had a great chase on that Lubbock cell today. I'm pretty shocked to see the "tornado" videos because we were on it pretty much the entire time and didn't see anything.... we saw the strong rotation rise and wane on the wall cloud for a while but I never saw anything reach the ground. There was a LOT of rapidly rising scud but nothing I'd call a tornado. Funny - this is the second time I've been chasing and had people report a "tornado" that was mysteriously invisible despite being right in front of me.... The video with the setting pink sun looks like it was taken right next to where I was standing. Guess I'm blind? Will have some pictures and videos tomorrow morning. Another big day coming up tomorrow... sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Had a great chase on that Lubbock cell today. I'm pretty shocked to see the "tornado" videos because we were on it pretty much the entire time and didn't see anything.... we saw the strong rotation rise and wane on the wall cloud for a while but I never saw anything reach the ground. There was a LOT of rapidly rising scud but nothing I'd call a tornado. Funny - this is the second time I've been chasing and had people report a "tornado" that was mysteriously invisible despite being right in front of me.... The video with the setting pink sun looks like it was taken right next to where I was standing. Guess I'm blind? Will have some pictures and videos tomorrow morning. Another big day coming up tomorrow... sheesh. Hate to break it to you as you probably haven't slept yet but it is already tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Long day, but just arrived back at OUN after snagging a couple brief/bird-fart tornadoes on the supercell N of LBB. Haven't done a detailed analysis of model data yet, but from what I'm seeing on the RAP/RUC/HRRR, I doubt that low-level flow will be backed enough to support a significant tornado threat tomorrow along the dryline. The short-range models all show H85 flow almost due SW across all of OK and C/E KS, which isn't going to cut it. In addition, the LLJ axis appears to shift east rather early. It's possible their solutions will change radically in the morning after 12z soundings, but I doubt it. Up in 7 hours or so to check, regardless. Regarding the bolded: 1) Both the 06z NAM and the last few RAP runs actually slowly back the winds at 850mb through the course of the afternoon to about SSW between 21z and 00z as the low strengthens. With how far west the high dewpoint has penetrated, I would bet this to be a (somewhat rare) situation where you maintain enough moisture at 850mb until that backing occurs. 2) The LLJ axis stays right ahead of the dryline all afternoon (at least in srn KS and OK). I don't see any major early eastward shift on either the RAP or the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Looks like lots of chasers went overboard this week based on SPC's outlook. Not to broadbrush but many were screaming major outbreak for today. Obviously some here, have been much more nuanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Some of our local mets are concerned about the timing of the storms moving into NW AR tonight, due to the Razorbacks game in Fayetteville starting at 6:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Anybody think that in Kansas we'll get enough break in the clouds, to get at least some substantial destabilization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Cloud cover starting to break in Kansas and Oklahoma.. . Large 50 area on the SigTor for Kansas and Oklahoma as well later this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.