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October 12-13th "Potential" Severe Outbreak


patrick7032

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What a wonderful AFD that was put out from ARX, it's long so I won't post it here, but in many respects it sets up what could happen Saturday from TX to their CWA, when you wake up in the morning you may want to read it, and than pull the important aspects out of it as it pertains to your area of concern and match it up to the afd's for your local area. Good luck everyone.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ARX&issuedby=ARX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

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There is a tornado warning south of Roswell at this hour.

Artesia, NM is getting rocked right now by probably baseballs, FD running numerous structure fires reporting "massive" hail while responding. Pretty decent couplet over the city also, and warned to 80 mph. DBZ up to 78 from Cannon AFB.

eqamy4yq.jpg

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If the NAM is right, tomorrow suddenly has the potential to become a very big day. DUE SOUTH winds at 850mb in KS/OK. GFS has nearly the same solution. Much slower with the shortwave, timing now pretty much ideal. IA also a bigger threat with exiting jet streak. Almost a 1/7/08 style dual-mode threat, but with a stronger secondary jet streak (KS/OK). Wow wow wow if this verifies.

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Well since I can post cut/paste text from the AFD...(must be a site issue)...MAF really talked up today at the end of the discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

441 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER SRN CA/SRN NV THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST

PASSING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE ROCKIES

SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE CHANCES OF STORMS WILL

INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY THIS

LOW WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE

WESTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH

WILL DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY MOVING ONTO THE

PLAINS WEDNESDAY. ONCE IT PASSES BY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETURNS.

HAVE ALREADY HAD SOME STRONG EARLY MORNING STORMS NEAR THE RIO

GRANDE THAT MOVED ACROSS MARFA PLATEAU... DAVIS MTNS AND INTO THE

TRANS PECOS. HAVE ALSO HAD A LARGE SEVERE STORM MOVE ACROSS EDDY

COUNTY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE

EVENING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS EXPECT IT MAY

BE A BUSY DAY AHEAD. OFFICIALLY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR

STORMS TODAY EXTENDING FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN TO NEAR PEQ. THIS

INCLUDES SE NM... THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... AND THE UPPER TRANS

PECOS. WHILE SVR WX WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE THE

POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS... BUT THE COOL DOWN

WILL BE BRIEF.

MAY BE BIG SVR WX DAY AS UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH A DRYLINE/PACIFIC

FRONT... GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S... PLENTY OF

CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SVR POTENTIAL

TODAY/TONIGHT IN HWO. BASED ON MODEL QPF STORMS WILL BEGIN OUT WEST

BEFORE NOON AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST DEVELOPING INTO A LINE BY LATE

AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WRN PERMIAN BASIN/UPPER

TRANS PECOS. MODELS SHOW THE LINE BREAKS UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE

CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN... WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING IT OFTEN

HAPPENS WHEN STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER PLAINS. DURING PEAK

AFTERNOON HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR

STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. SPC ALSO MENTIONS EARLY START TO SVR

STORMS TODAY WITH RISK OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE

DRYLINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS BUT

WITH STRONG SHEAR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO BEING POSSIBLE.

HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS SE NM. LOW LOOKS TO BE

SLOWER TO CLEAR THE AREA... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE

AREA SATURDAY AS PARTICULARLY THE ETA DEVELOPS ANOTHER LINE OF

STORMS THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. POPS

INCREASING NEXT TUE/WED MAY NEED TO THROW IN LOW CHANCE.

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If the NAM is right, tomorrow suddenly has the potential to become a very big day. DUE SOUTH winds at 850mb in KS/OK. GFS has nearly the same solution. Much slower with the shortwave, timing now pretty much ideal. IA also a bigger threat with exiting jet streak. Almost a 1/7/08 style dual-mode threat, but with a stronger secondary jet streak (KS/OK). Wow wow wow if this verifies.

Noticed this trend on the 06z runs as well. My reservations still stem from early convection, which is depicted on both models up and down the dryline in OK/KS. Granted, even so, the LLJ finally does look more aligned with the instability on these runs, so I wouldn't rule anything out. However, if the instability axis were wider and more robust, I'd be closer to getting on board for something significant.

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If the NAM is right, tomorrow suddenly has the potential to become a very big day. DUE SOUTH winds at 850mb in KS/OK. GFS has nearly the same solution. Much slower with the shortwave, timing now pretty much ideal. IA also a bigger threat with exiting jet streak. Almost a 1/7/08 style dual-mode threat, but with a stronger secondary jet streak (KS/OK). Wow wow wow if this verifies

Yeah that LL cyclone further south really changes the LL flow trajectories.

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Well, it's still early, but the HRRR doesn't leave me feeling inspired about later today. :unsure:

The HRRR often changes quite a bit between the pre- and post-12z runs, so I'm not panicked just yet. Lots of question marks today and definitely not the setup I'd hoped for 3-4 days ago, but I'm pulling the trigger and taking the gamble. Really hoping the effects of the ongoing MCS aren't felt too late into the afternoon. As of now still honing on the AMA-LBB-CVN triangle, and hoping the instability doesn't get squeezed any farther south than that area.

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The HRRR often changes quite a bit between the pre- and post-12z runs, so I'm not panicked just yet. Lots of question marks today and definitely not the setup I'd hoped for 3-4 days ago, but I'm pulling the trigger and taking the gamble. Really hoping the effects of the ongoing MCS aren't felt too late into the afternoon. As of now still honing on the AMA-LBB-CVN triangle, and hoping the instability doesn't get squeezed any farther south than that area.

True. I guess I'm just a bit antsy today. I think we're still targeting an AMA-Hereford corridor. Prob still headed to AMA before we re-analyze. The 12Z NAM (FWIW) seems to still lend credibility to that idea. Gonna go with that instead of getting caught up in details of the Texas Tech WRF or anything. Looks like the front struggles to pass the AMA-Pampa line.

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Not what I was expecting exactly for the Day 2 update... But, the threat is definitely starting to transition farther swwd toward KC/ Eastern KS/ NE OK... Though, in terms of Tornado Potential it's seems really dependent on instability... If we can get any sun...

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Looking at the 12z Euro on Wundermaps, it certainly appears to have a rather robust LLJ overspreading a sizable part of the instability axis tomorrow, with that developing sfc low in Kansas helping to keep the winds at the surface essentially due south, with localized backing in some areas.

Also, looking at the RAP, instability looks impressive towards this evening south of the front, compared to what the models indicated. Mesoanalysis suggests rapid destabilization is occurring south of that boundary and the cold wedge of air across the Northern TX PH, to go along with this.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

314 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO

SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION...

DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN FLAGSTAFF AZ AND LAS

VEGAS NV CONTINUES TO EASE SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS SYSTEM

REMAINS CONFINED WEST OF SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL

CONUS. MEANWHILE...A CAPPING INVERSION KNOWN AS THE ELEVATED

MIXED LAYER OR EML WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP NORTH TEXAS RELATIVELY

DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE

AROUND BUT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP RICHEST MOISTURE CONFINED

BELOW THE EML WITH A RETURN OF STRATUS AND SOME SPRINKLES

OVERNIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE AN

INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH

SW FLOW ALOFT AND DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO ELEVATED THE EML

ENOUGH FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE EXPECTED STRATUS AND SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST WINDS STAYING UP AT OR ABOVE 10 MPH OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS

WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS

THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO AN OPEN TROUGH

ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE

FASTER SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUCH STRONG SW FLOW WILL

USUALLY MAINTAIN THE EML UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE AS THE SYSTEM

BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA/MISSOURI. STRONG

ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TX/OK

PANHANDLES AND WESTERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BEGIN

MOISTENING AND LIFTING THE EML. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A

FEW DISCRETE STORMS ERUPTING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS UP INTO SW OK

WITH A STRONG JET MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS THIS

AREA. THROUGH MID EVENING...WE EXPECT EITHER DISCRETE CELLS...POSSIBLY

SUPERCELLS PER 45-55 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND/OR CELL CLUSTERS OR

SEGMENTS AS THE BEST FORCING OCCURS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. WE

HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING SLIGHTLY TO JUST ACROSS OUR EXTREME W/NW

COUNTIES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF

AN UPPER JET MAX ROTATES THROUGH. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE

ORDER OF 1500 J/KG WILL BE PLENTY FOR STORM INITIATION...HOWEVER

SOME WILD CARDS WILL BE IN PLAY LIKE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ON

THE ORDER OF 6-6.5 DEG C/KM AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTH OF

THE EML. WE FEEL THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR

THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LARGE

HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW FOR

AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY

NIGHT...A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL ENHANCE WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO

THE POINT THAT ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS WOULD LIKELY

EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINEAR MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE

REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS. OVERNIGHT...WE EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER

RISK TO GRADUALLY WANE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IT IS

AT THIS TIME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS AND FLOODING COULD OCCUR

ACROSS PARTICULARLY OUR EAST- CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES

AS SOME TRAINING OCCURS WITH AREA OF WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. WE DO NOT

EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING...THUS DO NOT PLAN ON ANY HYDROLOGICAL

WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF I-20. IT DOES

BEAR WATCHING THOUGH THAT WE COULD GO FROM A SEVERE WEATHER MODE

TO A HYDROLOGICAL MODE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PACIFIC FRONT IN THE

WAKE OF OUR STORMS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING

WITH STORM CHANCES ENDING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES BY

MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

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Snippet below from TSA afternoon AFD. Anyone agree with their assessment? Don't have access to ECMWF right now...

LATEST 12Z ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN ALL

OTHER MODELS REGARDING UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE

FOUR CORNERS REGION TO KANSAS LATE DAY SATURDAY.

CANADIAN MODEL CLOSEST IN STRENGTH. IN ALL CASES

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT PROMISES TO BE BUSY.

IF...IF...ECMWF VERIFIES WELL SATURDAY AFTERNOON

AND EVENING WILL FEATURE A FULL COMPLIMENT OF

SEVERE WEATHER. SEE HWOTSA FOR DETAILS.

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Brett Adair's got a pretty impressive looking updraft on his cam right now.

Seems like a lot of clear sky as well.

MCD out:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0550 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122250Z - 130015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH

EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO WEST TX.

LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO

OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. CLOSELY

MONITORING FOR A WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOWER

CO RIVER VALLEY...THE LEADING /EASTERN/ EDGE OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT

FALLS/IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EASTWARD

EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH A

RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR AT A WESTERN LONGITUDE /55-65 F SURFACE

DEWPOINTS IN EASTERN NM/...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LEAD

TO AN INCREASING NUMBER OF TSTMS THIS EVENING. SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS

ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM NEAR CARLSBAD AS OF

2230Z...AND MORE RECENTLY NEAR THE LUBBOCK/PLAINVIEW TX AREAS. IN

ALL...IT IS PROBABLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE

WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM AND WEST TX ALONG AND

SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS INDICATIVE OF MODEST INHIBITION WITH

MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. AS DEEP LAYER WINDS/VERTICAL

SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES THIS EVENING...WIND PROFILES/INSTABILITY

WILL BE WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WHILE

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS INITIALLY MODEST SOUTH OF THE

EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND TX PANHANDLE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...MASS

RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY

INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING...A TREND ALREADY NOTED PER

THE CANNON AFB NM WSR-88D VWP /200 0-1 KM SRH/. AS SUCH...A TORNADO

OR TWO WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE SUPERCELLS INDEED OCCUR/REMAIN

SUSTAINED THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING.

..GUYER/HART.. 10/12/2012

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