somethingfunny Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 There is a tornado warning south of Roswell at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 What a wonderful AFD that was put out from ARX, it's long so I won't post it here, but in many respects it sets up what could happen Saturday from TX to their CWA, when you wake up in the morning you may want to read it, and than pull the important aspects out of it as it pertains to your area of concern and match it up to the afd's for your local area. Good luck everyone. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ARX&issuedby=ARX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 There is a tornado warning south of Roswell at this hour. Artesia, NM is getting rocked right now by probably baseballs, FD running numerous structure fires reporting "massive" hail while responding. Pretty decent couplet over the city also, and warned to 80 mph. DBZ up to 78 from Cannon AFB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 Anyone else having trouble cut/pasting here? I have had to keep clicking several times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 Well since I can post cut/paste text from the AFD...(must be a site issue)...MAF really talked up today at the end of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Where's the low on the 06z NAM? What a radically different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 If the NAM is right, tomorrow suddenly has the potential to become a very big day. DUE SOUTH winds at 850mb in KS/OK. GFS has nearly the same solution. Much slower with the shortwave, timing now pretty much ideal. IA also a bigger threat with exiting jet streak. Almost a 1/7/08 style dual-mode threat, but with a stronger secondary jet streak (KS/OK). Wow wow wow if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Well since I can post cut/paste text from the AFD...(must be a site issue)...MAF really talked up today at the end of the discussion. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 441 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... A STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER SRN CA/SRN NV THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST PASSING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE CHANCES OF STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. ONCE IT PASSES BY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETURNS. HAVE ALREADY HAD SOME STRONG EARLY MORNING STORMS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE THAT MOVED ACROSS MARFA PLATEAU... DAVIS MTNS AND INTO THE TRANS PECOS. HAVE ALSO HAD A LARGE SEVERE STORM MOVE ACROSS EDDY COUNTY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS EXPECT IT MAY BE A BUSY DAY AHEAD. OFFICIALLY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS TODAY EXTENDING FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN TO NEAR PEQ. THIS INCLUDES SE NM... THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. WHILE SVR WX WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS... BUT THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF. MAY BE BIG SVR WX DAY AS UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT... GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S... PLENTY OF CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SVR POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT IN HWO. BASED ON MODEL QPF STORMS WILL BEGIN OUT WEST BEFORE NOON AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST DEVELOPING INTO A LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO WRN PERMIAN BASIN/UPPER TRANS PECOS. MODELS SHOW THE LINE BREAKS UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN... WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING IT OFTEN HAPPENS WHEN STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER PLAINS. DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. SPC ALSO MENTIONS EARLY START TO SVR STORMS TODAY WITH RISK OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS BUT WITH STRONG SHEAR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO BEING POSSIBLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS SE NM. LOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER TO CLEAR THE AREA... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AS PARTICULARLY THE ETA DEVELOPS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. POPS INCREASING NEXT TUE/WED MAY NEED TO THROW IN LOW CHANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Amarillo, TX 06z NAM Sounding tonight at 10 PM CDT... Dalhart, TX 06z NAM sounding at 10 PM CDT tonight... Tucumcari, New Mexico 06z NAM sounding at 9 PM MDT tonight... It could get interesting tonight... will have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 If the NAM is right, tomorrow suddenly has the potential to become a very big day. DUE SOUTH winds at 850mb in KS/OK. GFS has nearly the same solution. Much slower with the shortwave, timing now pretty much ideal. IA also a bigger threat with exiting jet streak. Almost a 1/7/08 style dual-mode threat, but with a stronger secondary jet streak (KS/OK). Wow wow wow if this verifies. Noticed this trend on the 06z runs as well. My reservations still stem from early convection, which is depicted on both models up and down the dryline in OK/KS. Granted, even so, the LLJ finally does look more aligned with the instability on these runs, so I wouldn't rule anything out. However, if the instability axis were wider and more robust, I'd be closer to getting on board for something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Well, it's still early, but the HRRR doesn't leave me feeling inspired about later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 If the NAM is right, tomorrow suddenly has the potential to become a very big day. DUE SOUTH winds at 850mb in KS/OK. GFS has nearly the same solution. Much slower with the shortwave, timing now pretty much ideal. IA also a bigger threat with exiting jet streak. Almost a 1/7/08 style dual-mode threat, but with a stronger secondary jet streak (KS/OK). Wow wow wow if this verifies Yeah that LL cyclone further south really changes the LL flow trajectories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Well, it's still early, but the HRRR doesn't leave me feeling inspired about later today. The HRRR often changes quite a bit between the pre- and post-12z runs, so I'm not panicked just yet. Lots of question marks today and definitely not the setup I'd hoped for 3-4 days ago, but I'm pulling the trigger and taking the gamble. Really hoping the effects of the ongoing MCS aren't felt too late into the afternoon. As of now still honing on the AMA-LBB-CVN triangle, and hoping the instability doesn't get squeezed any farther south than that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 The 09z SREF pegging 50 SigTor there on the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle border. The tornado problem could spread into Kansas later tonight. 40 SigTor in Oklahoma tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 The HRRR often changes quite a bit between the pre- and post-12z runs, so I'm not panicked just yet. Lots of question marks today and definitely not the setup I'd hoped for 3-4 days ago, but I'm pulling the trigger and taking the gamble. Really hoping the effects of the ongoing MCS aren't felt too late into the afternoon. As of now still honing on the AMA-LBB-CVN triangle, and hoping the instability doesn't get squeezed any farther south than that area. True. I guess I'm just a bit antsy today. I think we're still targeting an AMA-Hereford corridor. Prob still headed to AMA before we re-analyze. The 12Z NAM (FWIW) seems to still lend credibility to that idea. Gonna go with that instead of getting caught up in details of the Texas Tech WRF or anything. Looks like the front struggles to pass the AMA-Pampa line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 12z NAM isn't as impressive with the LL winds, but is substantially more widespread in warm sector instability than previous runs. The LLJ is essentially overlapping the instability now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 12z run has a very wide axis of instability (which we've slowly been trending toward the past few runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 That's kind of a lame Day 2 outlook that just came out. Seems to be a lot of uncertainty. I'm definitely seeing a lot of differences precip wise with the NAM, NAM4KM, HWR, GFS solutions this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Yowza...I-40 special right on the warm front. UH-16. Is that a helicopter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Not what I was expecting exactly for the Day 2 update... But, the threat is definitely starting to transition farther swwd toward KC/ Eastern KS/ NE OK... Though, in terms of Tornado Potential it's seems really dependent on instability... If we can get any sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Looking at the 12z Euro on Wundermaps, it certainly appears to have a rather robust LLJ overspreading a sizable part of the instability axis tomorrow, with that developing sfc low in Kansas helping to keep the winds at the surface essentially due south, with localized backing in some areas. Also, looking at the RAP, instability looks impressive towards this evening south of the front, compared to what the models indicated. Mesoanalysis suggests rapid destabilization is occurring south of that boundary and the cold wedge of air across the Northern TX PH, to go along with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 314 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... ...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION... DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN FLAGSTAFF AZ AND LAS VEGAS NV CONTINUES TO EASE SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS SYSTEM REMAINS CONFINED WEST OF SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE...A CAPPING INVERSION KNOWN AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OR EML WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP NORTH TEXAS RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND BUT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP RICHEST MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW THE EML WITH A RETURN OF STRATUS AND SOME SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ENOUGH TO ELEVATED THE EML ENOUGH FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE EXPECTED STRATUS AND SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS STAYING UP AT OR ABOVE 10 MPH OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE FASTER SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUCH STRONG SW FLOW WILL USUALLY MAINTAIN THE EML UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA/MISSOURI. STRONG ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WESTERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BEGIN MOISTENING AND LIFTING THE EML. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW DISCRETE STORMS ERUPTING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS UP INTO SW OK WITH A STRONG JET MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS THIS AREA. THROUGH MID EVENING...WE EXPECT EITHER DISCRETE CELLS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS PER 45-55 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND/OR CELL CLUSTERS OR SEGMENTS AS THE BEST FORCING OCCURS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. WE HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING SLIGHTLY TO JUST ACROSS OUR EXTREME W/NW COUNTIES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX ROTATES THROUGH. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG WILL BE PLENTY FOR STORM INITIATION...HOWEVER SOME WILD CARDS WILL BE IN PLAY LIKE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 6-6.5 DEG C/KM AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTH OF THE EML. WE FEEL THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT...A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL ENHANCE WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE POINT THAT ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINEAR MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS. OVERNIGHT...WE EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO GRADUALLY WANE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. IT IS AT THIS TIME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS AND FLOODING COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTICULARLY OUR EAST- CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES AS SOME TRAINING OCCURS WITH AREA OF WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING...THUS DO NOT PLAN ON ANY HYDROLOGICAL WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF I-20. IT DOES BEAR WATCHING THOUGH THAT WE COULD GO FROM A SEVERE WEATHER MODE TO A HYDROLOGICAL MODE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PACIFIC FRONT IN THE WAKE OF OUR STORMS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH STORM CHANCES ENDING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Snippet below from TSA afternoon AFD. Anyone agree with their assessment? Don't have access to ECMWF right now... LATEST 12Z ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN ALL OTHER MODELS REGARDING UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO KANSAS LATE DAY SATURDAY. CANADIAN MODEL CLOSEST IN STRENGTH. IN ALL CASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT PROMISES TO BE BUSY. IF...IF...ECMWF VERIFIES WELL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL FEATURE A FULL COMPLIMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SEE HWOTSA FOR DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Nice little 4000+ CAPE max... only slightly more than what the models had even as recent as this morning's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Good thing I didn't go to SW KS. I probably would have bullseye chased like everyone else, to be fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Brett Adair's got a pretty impressive looking updraft on his cam right now. Seems like a lot of clear sky as well. MCD out: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 122250Z - 130015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO WEST TX. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. CLOSELY MONITORING FOR A WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR. DISCUSSION...WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...THE LEADING /EASTERN/ EDGE OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR AT A WESTERN LONGITUDE /55-65 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EASTERN NM/...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING NUMBER OF TSTMS THIS EVENING. SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM NEAR CARLSBAD AS OF 2230Z...AND MORE RECENTLY NEAR THE LUBBOCK/PLAINVIEW TX AREAS. IN ALL...IT IS PROBABLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM AND WEST TX ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS INDICATIVE OF MODEST INHIBITION WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. AS DEEP LAYER WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES THIS EVENING...WIND PROFILES/INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS INITIALLY MODEST SOUTH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND TX PANHANDLE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING...A TREND ALREADY NOTED PER THE CANNON AFB NM WSR-88D VWP /200 0-1 KM SRH/. AS SUCH...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE SUPERCELLS INDEED OCCUR/REMAIN SUSTAINED THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. ..GUYER/HART.. 10/12/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Nice attempt northwest of Lubbock right now. Lots of chasers seem to be heading towards that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 some flags now being shown at mid-levels via the LBB VAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Storm north of Lubbock now severe warned...it begins... 40K foot tops as well, lightning increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 That storm went up fast and is trucking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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