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October 12-13th "Potential" Severe Outbreak


patrick7032

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Instability values off the 4 KM NAM by tomorrow afternoon.

Very nice graphics... would you mind divulging your top-secret source? :P

I'm not even going to bother honing in on a target until the morning. There's significant disagreement on whether morning crapvection will or won't occur across the central and northern Panhandle. The NAM-NMM says no, and brings several discrete supercells across NE NM into the NW PH by early evening. However, most of the coarser models do suggest instability-killing convection 12-18z in that area. If the cold wedge and grunge can be scoured out by after lunchtime, I'd probably still favor AMA/DUX/BGD area as a starting point. If not, I'm open to making CVN-LBB-PVW my initial destination.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

337 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)

ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS

AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND

EASTERN CANADA WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -40C.

FRIDAY NIGHT:

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS

THE PROMINENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO. A SHALLOW

COLD AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE...HOWEVER

SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH

TO ERODE OUT AND/OR LIFT THE COOL AIRMASS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN

KANSAS. THERE ARE STILL HUGE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH

THIS WILL OCCUR...AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE

STRENGTH/SEVERITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL

KANSAS. THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE MAIN TIME RANGE FOR

SEVERAL LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE

STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITHOUT ANY SURFACE INFLOW INTO

THE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER DURING THE 03-09Z TIME

FRAME...SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH AT LEAST A

PORTION OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS....MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY

54 THOUGH. IF SBCAPE CAN EXCEED 600 J/KG OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA

AHEAD OF ORGANIZED, QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION...THEN THE SEVERE WIND

AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WILL BE THERE. THE LATEST

THINKING, HOWEVER, FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE OF THE ARW AND NMM CORES OF

THE HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF MODEL...KEEPING LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE

DEWPOINTS JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER THROUGH 06Z. SOME

OF THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MAY REACH A MEADE TO PRATT LINE BY

06Z...SO THIS WILL BE THE AREA WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

ELSEWHERE...WILL KEEP THE 60-70 POPS GOING CWA-WIDE WITH THUNDER IN

THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH POPS ENDING FROM WEST TO

EAST AS THE DRY INTRUSION AIRMASS PUSHES EAST.

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I am really not impressed with tomorrow, especially after looking at the 0Z NAM. It seems to be relatively weaker with the low level wind fields in West Texas and shows a large area of precipitation, probably an indicator of widespread precipitation or a linear event. I'll keep looking though to find some ray of good news.

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00z NAM in for tomorrow, doesn't show the same problems with the wedge. It almost looks to shift the best combo of instability and shear to the eastern portion of the TX panhandle earlier on, and it keeps appearing weaker with LL flow...

That, and Saturday looks fairly benign, LL flow is still severely veered and the instability lagging way behind.

Not looking very good, to say the least.

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00z NAM in for tomorrow, doesn't show the same problems with the wedge. It almost looks to shift the best combo of instability and shear to the eastern portion of the TX panhandle earlier on, and it keeps appearing weaker with LL flow...

That, and Saturday looks fairly benign, LL flow is still severely veered and the instability lagging way behind.

Not looking very good, to say the least.

Nope. The NAM has a wider moisture axis that is not disjointed from significant instability.

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As David said, the NAM does little to assuage concerns about tomorrow. Low-level wind shear is simply not impressive before, and even at, 00z. I just have to laugh at the continued slowing of the jet streak, as we're now reduced to begging for 40 kts of deep-layer shear to arrive by sunset where a couple days ago it looked like 50-60 kts easy. Sometimes it amazes me how these troughs can eject at seemingly the absolute worst time for either of the two days in question.

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Nope. The NAM has a wider moisture axis that is not disjointed from significant instability.

Maybe so, but I'm still not liking that largely veered sfc to 850 mb flow along said instability axis.

What the NAM did show, however, was a secondary sfc low further south along the front in Central KS.

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As David said, the NAM does little to assuage concerns about tomorrow. Low-level wind shear is simply not impressive before, and even at, 00z. I just have to laugh at the continued slowing of the jet streak, as we're now reduced to begging for 40 kts of deep-layer shear to arrive by sunset where a couple days ago it looked like 50-60 kts easy. Sometimes it amazes me how these troughs can eject at seemingly the absolute worst time for either of the two days in question.

Yeah, tomorrow is going to be a nail biter, especially for anything before dark.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

959 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

.UPDATE...

9 PM SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD

TSTMS MOVING NEWD FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN TX

PANHANDLE...BYPASSING OUR CWA EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR PARMER COUNTY.

SFC OBS SHOW A FRONT JUST MOVING INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. AS THE

FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY GET A BIT OF A BOOST

FROM LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO

OUR NORTH...BUT COULD SINK SWD INTO OUR NRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING SCT TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR SW ZONES

AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...BUT IT/S DEPICTION OF CURRENT

ACTIVITY IN SE NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS SEEMS OVERDONE...LOWERING

CONFIDENCE IN IT/S FORECAST.

THE 0Z NAM HAS ARRIVED. IT HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF

STORMS. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS FIRING OFF THE HIER TERRAIN OF

NM BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY PASSING THROUGH MOST OF THE

CWA FRIDAY EVENING. THEN ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS LATE FRIDAY

NIGHT/SAT MORNING FORCED ALONG A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT SWEEPING

ACROSS THE FA. FCST SNDGS STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE

WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SOUNDING AT LUBBOCK

SUGGESTS THAT SKIES COULD VERY WELL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT ALLOWING

SBCAPES TO RISE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG AND TEMPS TO SUFFICIENTLY WARM

FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. SHEAR APPEARS FAIRLY UNIDRECTIONAL

AT LUBBOCK...BUT WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT MORE TURNING ACROSS THE FAR

SRN TX PANHANDLE.

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When comparing the AMA radar data to the 6Z GFS precip...talk about WAY OVERDONE.

Yeah, the GFS precip looks to have a convective complex set up across the area, which is far from what looks to happen right now.

Also, based on an initial look, the 00z GFS looks better for Saturday than the NAM.

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