Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 That may be what we do...I just agree that AMA is a good flex point for us (will be chasing with TonyAko and WxWatcher91). I'm just stubborn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 AMA's going to be a pretty popular spot tomorrow. If I was out there, I'd be doing the same thing RE: wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Instability values off the 4 KM NAM by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Depending on morning grunge and ongoing stuff I'd eye southwest of AMA towards the NM border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Instability values off the 4 KM NAM by tomorrow afternoon. Very nice graphics... would you mind divulging your top-secret source? I'm not even going to bother honing in on a target until the morning. There's significant disagreement on whether morning crapvection will or won't occur across the central and northern Panhandle. The NAM-NMM says no, and brings several discrete supercells across NE NM into the NW PH by early evening. However, most of the coarser models do suggest instability-killing convection 12-18z in that area. If the cold wedge and grunge can be scoured out by after lunchtime, I'd probably still favor AMA/DUX/BGD area as a starting point. If not, I'm open to making CVN-LBB-PVW my initial destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Depending on morning grunge and ongoing stuff I'd eye southwest of AMA towards the NM border. Yep! That's where we're looking... quite sure it'll be a mad house there tomorrow. At least AMA should have decent food options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Yep! That's where we're looking... quite sure it'll be a mad house there tomorrow. At least AMA should have decent food options. BIG TEXAN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 BIG TEXAN! Hell yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 337 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -40C. FRIDAY NIGHT: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE PROMINENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO. A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE...HOWEVER SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE OUT AND/OR LIFT THE COOL AIRMASS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. THERE ARE STILL HUGE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH THIS WILL OCCUR...AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE STRENGTH/SEVERITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE MAIN TIME RANGE FOR SEVERAL LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITHOUT ANY SURFACE INFLOW INTO THE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER DURING THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME...SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS....MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54 THOUGH. IF SBCAPE CAN EXCEED 600 J/KG OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA AHEAD OF ORGANIZED, QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION...THEN THE SEVERE WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WILL BE THERE. THE LATEST THINKING, HOWEVER, FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE OF THE ARW AND NMM CORES OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF MODEL...KEEPING LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST SOUTH OF THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER THROUGH 06Z. SOME OF THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MAY REACH A MEADE TO PRATT LINE BY 06Z...SO THIS WILL BE THE AREA WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE...WILL KEEP THE 60-70 POPS GOING CWA-WIDE WITH THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH POPS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DRY INTRUSION AIRMASS PUSHES EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Very nice graphics... would you mind divulging your top-secret source? looks like weatherbell? http://models.weatherbell.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Yep! That's where we're looking... quite sure it'll be a mad house there tomorrow. At least AMA should have decent food options. Yes. Make sure you grab food in AMA if it looks like you'd be heading west. The only thing in Vega is a DQ, and a sketchy one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 An early look at the 24-hour RAP lends credence to the idea of the main show being S of I-40, with a mid-late morning push of the cold wedge back down into the Panhandle that never gets dislodged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 An early look at the 24-hour RAP lends credence to the idea of the main show being S of I-40, with a mid-late morning push of the cold wedge back down into the Panhandle that never gets dislodged. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Link? Sorry, should've said experimental RUC. http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 That corridor south of AMA along I-27, to Plainview and perhaps Lubbock seems like a nice spot if you were to take that verbatim, 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE and a subtlety backed LLJ of 25-30+ kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I am really not impressed with tomorrow, especially after looking at the 0Z NAM. It seems to be relatively weaker with the low level wind fields in West Texas and shows a large area of precipitation, probably an indicator of widespread precipitation or a linear event. I'll keep looking though to find some ray of good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 00z NAM in for tomorrow, doesn't show the same problems with the wedge. It almost looks to shift the best combo of instability and shear to the eastern portion of the TX panhandle earlier on, and it keeps appearing weaker with LL flow... That, and Saturday looks fairly benign, LL flow is still severely veered and the instability lagging way behind. Not looking very good, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 Really starting to look like after the chase tomorrow...I'll be heading to OKC to set up for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 00z NAM in for tomorrow, doesn't show the same problems with the wedge. It almost looks to shift the best combo of instability and shear to the eastern portion of the TX panhandle earlier on, and it keeps appearing weaker with LL flow... That, and Saturday looks fairly benign, LL flow is still severely veered and the instability lagging way behind. Not looking very good, to say the least. Nope. The NAM has a wider moisture axis that is not disjointed from significant instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 As David said, the NAM does little to assuage concerns about tomorrow. Low-level wind shear is simply not impressive before, and even at, 00z. I just have to laugh at the continued slowing of the jet streak, as we're now reduced to begging for 40 kts of deep-layer shear to arrive by sunset where a couple days ago it looked like 50-60 kts easy. Sometimes it amazes me how these troughs can eject at seemingly the absolute worst time for either of the two days in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Nope. The NAM has a wider moisture axis that is not disjointed from significant instability. Maybe so, but I'm still not liking that largely veered sfc to 850 mb flow along said instability axis. What the NAM did show, however, was a secondary sfc low further south along the front in Central KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 As David said, the NAM does little to assuage concerns about tomorrow. Low-level wind shear is simply not impressive before, and even at, 00z. I just have to laugh at the continued slowing of the jet streak, as we're now reduced to begging for 40 kts of deep-layer shear to arrive by sunset where a couple days ago it looked like 50-60 kts easy. Sometimes it amazes me how these troughs can eject at seemingly the absolute worst time for either of the two days in question. Yeah, tomorrow is going to be a nail biter, especially for anything before dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Maybe a case of the NAM just being the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 Shear is still decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 00Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 959 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 .UPDATE... 9 PM SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING NEWD FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...BYPASSING OUR CWA EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR PARMER COUNTY. SFC OBS SHOW A FRONT JUST MOVING INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY GET A BIT OF A BOOST FROM LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT COULD SINK SWD INTO OUR NRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING SCT TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR SW ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...BUT IT/S DEPICTION OF CURRENT ACTIVITY IN SE NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS SEEMS OVERDONE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN IT/S FORECAST. THE 0Z NAM HAS ARRIVED. IT HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS FIRING OFF THE HIER TERRAIN OF NM BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY PASSING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING. THEN ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING FORCED ALONG A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FA. FCST SNDGS STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SOUNDING AT LUBBOCK SUGGESTS THAT SKIES COULD VERY WELL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT ALLOWING SBCAPES TO RISE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG AND TEMPS TO SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. SHEAR APPEARS FAIRLY UNIDRECTIONAL AT LUBBOCK...BUT WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT MORE TURNING ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 12, 2012 Author Share Posted October 12, 2012 When comparing the AMA radar data to the 6Z GFS precip...talk about WAY OVERDONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 When comparing the AMA radar data to the 6Z GFS precip...talk about WAY OVERDONE. Yeah, the GFS precip looks to have a convective complex set up across the area, which is far from what looks to happen right now. Also, based on an initial look, the 00z GFS looks better for Saturday than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Nice mid level dry punch on the 00z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 So, thoughts on Saturday in my neighborhood? I see wind fields are still impressive but the GFS isn't putting out much CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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