brettjrob Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Don't set yourself up for depression tomorrow night by using a "fluke" like November 7th as a guideline. <Yoda Voice> Only sadness will you find.</Yoda Voice> ha yeah, I was 75% joking... that's one of those days you blaspheme by comparing to any other setup. Also, someone has definitely been whispering that in my ear in a raspy voice about this whole trough for a few days now... just couldn't place it until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Cantore is on the hype machine for Sat outbreak. I'm sorta perplexed what he's seeing. If anything SPC seems to be highlighting the wind potential.. as they should. Just looked at the 12z GFS. The shear is good but the instability is still lacking and it's tied to the front. (that's in regard to 'nados) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Surprised no mention of the 12z NAM ... almost fully onboard with the GFS and Euro for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Surprised no mention of the 12z NAM ... almost fully onboard with the GFS and Euro for Saturday Hell it's better than the GFS...moisture and instability actually align well in KS/OK all the way up to IA because of less veering at 850mb. It also doesn't build the ridge as much as the GFS/Euro do. That will be key. If the NAM strength of the ridge verifies, Saturday becomes an full order of magnitude more interesting than what I've been thinking up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Noticed something interesting on the GFS Bufkit soundings and data. Although the main dryline looks to stay west of the state line...a pre-frontal trough looks to pass through KTCC around noon-1pm and through CVS around 3pm. LBB is looking stronger on the shear now...but still like the AMA to C36 (Guymon) area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 As I mentioned the other day...the models are likely under-doing the instability for both days. Using today as an example...both the NAM show around 1200 j/kg cape for KSJT and KMAF with LI's around -4 right now. Mesoanalysis shows around 2500 j/kg and -6 to -7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Put together a loop of the last 10 runs of the GFS valid for Saturday evening at 0z, easy to see the changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Risk extended further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 This is always a good value to see. Yeah I know...they changed things so we'll see how "accurate" it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 FWIW...dewpoints have not started their usual mixing drop. In fact they have increased across much of west central Texas...with 68-70 degree dewpoints across almost my entire CWA...stretching all the way to Interstate 20. We even had dense fog earlier this morning...a rare event for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Copy/paste of the bulk of my discussion regarding the tornado potential: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/10/11/tornado-threat-forecast-oct-12-13-2012/ Slower storm motion, more isolated activity and better low-level directional shear make Friday a safer bet than Saturday with regards to the tornado potential. Both days will have low to moderate CAPE, but earlier clouds and rain could hinder activity in the Midwest on Saturday. Friday is missing a solid surface low, which would help back the winds at the surface, but right now it looks like the surface winds will already be out of the south/south-southeast within the risk area, so it is not as critical to have the surface low in this case. Some cloudiness could limit the heating potential within the risk area, but there appears to be sufficient instability even with the cloud cover to allow for tornadoes. Additional backing of the surface winds provides a low threat near the warm front in north-central Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas, but storms may struggle to form in the warm sector and could quickly slide north of the warm front after they form, making the potential very limited. Saturday will have a stronger wind field compared to Friday, and while it does look impressive from a general severe weather perspective, the directional shear could be lacking, limiting storm rotation and tornado potential. It looks more like a potential severe wind outbreak as a squall line develops, with isolated tornado potential within the squall and with any supercells that could form ahead of the squall line. The greatest potential appears to be in southern Iowa, northwestern Missouri and far eastern Kansas. If the parameters come together better than expected on Saturday, the tornado potential could increase. A tornado outbreak is not out of the question, but the setup isn’t clear enough to make such a call at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 New Euro shows Friday has good potential as before...and it blows up a squall line Saturday with a southern speed max...and deeper trough...similar to yesterday's 00Z GFS. It Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Based off of today's Mesoanalaysis...the NAM seems to have the best "idea" and would use it's instability parameters for tomorrow. As such...it shows the highest instability west of I-27...generally 2 tiers of counties either side of the AMA/LBB CWA border... and it continues to show around 2500 j/kg with LI's of -9. Currently the NAM is still under-doing instability...as currently I have 3500-4000 near my CWA borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The 15Z SREF holds serve and seems to show the best composite indices (supercell comp., sigtor) between AMA and the TX/NM border, with 0-1 and 0-3 km SRH values rapidly increasing between 21Z and 00Z anywhere from AMA up to the TX/OK panhandle border. Looks like initiation occurs on the border west of NE and then zips up to the northeast toward Dumas/Perryton. I'm really liking AMA as a "watch-and-wait" target for tomorrow, plus it will have good access to head a bit further west/south if need be. They're also putting out less than a 50% probability of at least 500 J/kg of CAPE up to the OK/TX panhandle border... instability (and dewpoints >= 60F) struggle to really get past Dumas-Pampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Springfield, MO had this to say about Saturday in their afternoon AFD today: (their entire writeup is very long) THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMIC SETUP WITH HELICITY VALUES ON THE ORDER OF OF 300 TO 400 M2S2 AND BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM 50 TO 70 KTS. HOWEVER...BOTH MOST UNSTABLE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...RANGING FROM 800 TO 1500 J/KG (MOST UNSTABLE) TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED CAPE. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ALSO NOT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...HELICITY...AND WIND SHEAR...WE BUT MAY STILL SEE SOME MESOVORTICES DEVELOP WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE ABOVE...AT THIS POINT THE LIKELY STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE OF A LINEAR/QLCS TYPE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. BUT DUE TO THE PATTERN IN SOME OF THE MODELS I AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A POSSIBLE SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM A DYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE WITH A SEPARATE VORTMAX ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROF. THIS MAY HELP GENERATE A MORE MIXED MODE QLCS/POTENTIAL SUPERCELL SETUP FORMATION OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF MISSOURI WHILE A QLCS/SQUALL LINE SETUP PREVAILS TO THE NORTH...OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THIS EVENT IS STILL OVER TWO DAYS AWAY SO IT IS PRUDENT TO SEE EXACTLY HOW IT EVOLVES BEFORE MAKING ANY SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS ON STORM MODE TO THE SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Springfield, MO had this to say about Saturday in their afternoon AFD today: (their entire writeup is very long) THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMIC SETUP WITH HELICITY VALUES ON THE ORDER OF OF 300 TO 400 M2S2 AND BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM 50 TO 70 KTS. HOWEVER...BOTH MOST UNSTABLE AND SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...RANGING FROM 800 TO 1500 J/KG (MOST UNSTABLE) TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED CAPE. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ALSO NOT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...HELICITY...AND WIND SHEAR...WE BUT MAY STILL SEE SOME MESOVORTICES DEVELOP WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE ABOVE...AT THIS POINT THE LIKELY STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE OF A LINEAR/QLCS TYPE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. BUT DUE TO THE PATTERN IN SOME OF THE MODELS I AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A POSSIBLE SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM A DYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE WITH A SEPARATE VORTMAX ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROF. THIS MAY HELP GENERATE A MORE MIXED MODE QLCS/POTENTIAL SUPERCELL SETUP FORMATION OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES OF MISSOURI WHILE A QLCS/SQUALL LINE SETUP PREVAILS TO THE NORTH...OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THIS EVENT IS STILL OVER TWO DAYS AWAY SO IT IS PRUDENT TO SEE EXACTLY HOW IT EVOLVES BEFORE MAKING ANY SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS ON STORM MODE TO THE SOUTH. That would be a dangerous setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 18Z NAM gets the 60F isodrosotherm a bit further north into the OK panhandle than the 15Z SREF does, but it still seems to be honing in on an area between AMA and the TX/NM border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 310 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 TOMORROW...STILL LOOKS LIKE TWO SEPARATE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE FIRST WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MANY IFS REMAIN FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE BIGGEST OF WHICH IS IF AND WHEN LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING WILL ERODE. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DECK CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. IF THESE CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...THEN IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...THUS MAKING THE AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION UNLIKELY. IF CLOUDS ERODE BY MID DAY...THAN WE COULD GET ENOUGH INSOLATION...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASILY REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG AND NEAR 50 KT OF BULK SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THAT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...LIMITING IF NOT PRECLUDING ALL TOGETHER AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION. Certainly not an easy chase tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 341 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 .DISCUSSION... SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON NORTH TX...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW...WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PRIMARILY SPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...HOWEVER IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SHARPEN UP A PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT AND SEND IT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN THE INITIATION OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN PLACE. BETWEEN FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF THE THERMALLY DIRECT AGEOSTROPHIC JET STREAK CIRCULATION...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS HAS INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS INTO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE AS A RESULT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN AN ORGANIZED STORM MODE DURING THE PERIOD HAS INCREASED AS WELL. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY DUE TO PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EVEN WITH LIMITED HEATING...GUIDANCE STILL FORECASTS AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THERE IS SOME CONCERN REGARDING AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE JET STREAK OUT AHEAD OF SATURDAYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ASSUMING THERES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT STRENGTH...FAVORABLE VALUES OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A LINEAR STORM MODE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS ACROSS NORTH TX. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION UPON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME. AFTER AN INITIALLY BROKEN/DISCRETE STORM MODE...EXPECT CONSOLIDATION INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE EAST OFF THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE CWA. ASSUMING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED BY 00Z...THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AT 00Z...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET WHICH SHOULD ACTUALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF THE SQUALL LINE. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR RELATIVE TO THE CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTIONS ALONG THE GUST FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE DFW AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER IT SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SEVERAL HOURS OF COOLING REDUCE OVERALL DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY. SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS: SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD A THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FEW BOWING STRUCTURES IN WHICH ANY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. WHILE A HIGH END DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED...GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WOULD SEEM POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY BOWING STRUCTURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOSS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SQUALL LINE TO BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED GREATLY REDUCING ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. OF COURSE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SQUALL LINE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE (SHORT TERM AND LOCAL) FORECAST DETAILS WHICH WILL NOT BE WELL RESOLVED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THIS FORECAST. CAVANAUGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Gotta bust a lot to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Gotta bust a lot to win. That's what I keep telling myself, but then I keep seeing the quote in your signature and swallowing. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 That's what I keep telling myself, but then I keep seeing the quote in your signature and swallowing. lol. 'tis better to have chased and busted than to have missed the tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 To back up Patrick's point, this is what the 00z NAM had last night for 18z today: And this is the 18z NAM today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 That's what I keep telling myself, but then I keep seeing the quote in your signature and swallowing. lol. I'm not sure what I'd do if I lived out there. I'd either be a bum who only chased tornadoes or get really sick of driving around for nothing after a while. At least you guys are in school doing something greater for the good of mankind, or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 The 15Z SREF holds serve and seems to show the best composite indices (supercell comp., sigtor) between AMA and the TX/NM border, with 0-1 and 0-3 km SRH values rapidly increasing between 21Z and 00Z anywhere from AMA up to the TX/OK panhandle border. Looks like initiation occurs on the border west of NE and then zips up to the northeast toward Dumas/Perryton. I'm really liking AMA as a "watch-and-wait" target for tomorrow, plus it will have good access to head a bit further west/south if need be. They're also putting out less than a 50% probability of at least 500 J/kg of CAPE up to the OK/TX panhandle border... instability (and dewpoints >= 60F) struggle to really get past Dumas-Pampa. I completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I completely agree. I'd still favor the northern/wf play tho I guess it has high bust potential and could be grungy. Extreme SW KS looks good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 350 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012 AS HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF THIS LOW BY MID AFTERNOON...DISCRETE CELLS WILL HAVE THE INITIAL CHANCE TO COMMENCE. BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASINGLY CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WHILE A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE TO THE WEST NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE...A RESIDUAL COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY CAUSE STORMS TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT AS CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WHERE STORMS TRAIN. && .LONG TERM... CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. MAXIMUM LIFT FROM THE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED NORTH OF THE AREA. THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR OCTOBER STANDARDS. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SEEN NEAR THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND CIN WILL BE HIGHER EAST OF HERE WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME. THE BEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR VECTORS WILL AGAIN BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODEL HODOGRAPHS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL TURNING BUT IS STILL RATHER WEAK. THOUGH IT IS WEAK...IT IS ENOUGH TO NOT BE IGNORED FOR A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...ABOVE THIS LOW LAYER...STRONG SHEAR WILL EXIST LENDING TO ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL IS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION. WOULD STILL EXPECT MORE DISCRETE CELLS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS AND MORE LINEAR FEATURES FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THIS LLJ WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AT IMPRESSIVE SPEEDS NEAR 50KT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THIS LLJ. A CLOSED LOW SOLUTION PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY APPEARS MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS LOW WILL BE TRAILING OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS LIFT MAY OBTAIN SOME ASSISTANCE FROM A PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW OR EVEN STALL OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 I'd still favor the northern/wf play tho I guess it has high bust potential and could be grungy. Extreme SW KS looks good.. That may be what we do...I just agree that AMA is a good flex point for us (will be chasing with TonyAko and WxWatcher91). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 FWIW, 18Z 4 KM NAM shows a fairly active severe weather event by 7 PM tomorrow evening with multiple discrete cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 That big one in the Eastern TX Panhandle would be in a pretty robust environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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