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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion I


WilkesboroDude

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GSP Disco...

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE PERIODS OF MOSTLY

UNSETTLED WX FOR THE CWFA...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIVING INTO THE GULF

STATES AND SPARKING OFF WEAK CYCLOGENESIS INVOF SRN GA.

MEANWHILE...MODEST HIGH PRES (~1024 MB) WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE

ERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THICKNESSES LOOK MARGINAL

FOR SOME VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE NRN MTNS...AS PRECIP BREAKS

OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THESE AREAS LOOK FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE

BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT...HOWEVER. BLENDING IN THE NEW HPC

POPS...RESULTS IN MID TO HIGH-END CHC ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST SOUTH. A

WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...SO TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON

TUESDAY. PRECIP QUICKLY TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WAVE

APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. PERHAPS SOME CHANGEOVER

TO SNOW IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON BACK SIDE OF PRECIP...BUT THE

MODELS DON/T SHOW A SIGNIFICANT NW FLOW SETUP.

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undertheweather.gif

gfs_namer_120_300_wnd_ht.gif

LOL @ the 18z, someone in NE SC pics up their seasonal avg

18zgfssnow120.gif

126, hell, even I get some, unsure of the algorithm used, some more accurate than others, nevertheless, early Nov, if the MA and SNE have lower elev. issues this time of year, were screwed from a climo perspective...

18zgfssnow126.gif

Given an eventless Oct and Sandy, this would be all the buzz, guaranteed! But given the magnitude of what just happened, insult to injury, no other words for it. Sandy being a 8-9/10 worst case for areas directly impacted, 990 rolling up the coast is a 2, to put things into perspective, 6-7 orders of magnitude less, >10,000,000 times less impact, even with this potentially being a sig EC storm

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After lunchtime today, the Euro will be coming out an hour earlier due to time change. Looks like the NAO is headed toward psotive territory by mid month. Hopeflly its just a bump in the road or flucuation where it's been tanked the past several days. There is plenty of cold building up in Canada by mid month so hopefully it will be there to tap into when climo i more favorable.

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