griteater Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Good signal on the ensembles for below normal temperatures for most of next week. Here's one of the signals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Good signal on the ensembles for below normal temperatures for most of next week. And that below normal pattern look continues into the Nov 3 weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Good signal on the ensembles for below normal temperatures for most of next week. Here's one of the signals... Hopefully we can get the NAO tanking around Jan. instead of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Big east coast snowstorm in October last year. Pitiful winter. (if you like cold and/or snow) Big east coast storm/snow possible this year. __________ winter to follow? You guys/gals fill in the blank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Fantastic Big east coast snowstorm in October last year. Pitiful winter. (if you like cold and/or snow) Big east coast storm/snow possible this year. __________ winter to follow? You guys/gals fill in the blank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 @ lunch and just jumping on for a few to look over things, interesting we are seeing a slow trend back towards a EC landfall with the GFS mems. 3 camps, 1 ots, 1 NE, and 1 MA. Considering 24hrs ago almost all were ots, looks like the global may be coming around to the idea of a sig EC storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 ^ I agree. And I am not sold with the some of the tropical models taking it way out to sea...with a storm like Sandy transitioning to a winter like storm...they typically do not handle things very well...track being one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Funny how back in 1993 the models caught onto and held the idea the superstorm "93" was going to take place and it ended up verefying. Seems like I heard from guys who had access to model data back then brag how much forwarning the models where putting out up to 5 days ahead of time. However fast forward to Jan 2000 and the models had no clue within 24 hours a big phase storm was gonna take place. Just shows how difficult it is to predict the weather, let alone these phased mega storms we all love to see unfold. This is why it is so hard to take the models seriously. We want the big storm to happen that it shows 7 to 10 days out, but it hardly ever happens. And then we get the biggest snow ever in NC and the models didn't even show up within 24 hours of it happening. Whenever it comes to snow around here, no one knows what will happen, not even the models. But I think that is what is so much fun, the speculating, seeing if the models are actually going to get it right and seeing what actually happens. And now we have model madness starting already. Should be a fun winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm more interested than yesterday as the blocking is impressive and would be pretty excited about something happening if I lived in New England as they could get big rains even without a direct hit if they get and inverted trough with any type of surface development north of the low even if it goes out to sea. I like Wes's thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z Canadian is way right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Gotta love how the 12z GFS Ensemble develops, then holds the west-based block (NAO) through the end of the run (Nov 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Gotta love how the 12z GFS Ensemble develops, then holds the west-based block (NAO) through the end of the run (Nov 8) Pretty high correllation between Nov. NAO readings and the general average for winter, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Should we have a separate thread for Sandy now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Should we have a separate thread for Sandy now? You would think we would have more confidence with Sandy by now, but in reality, Sandy has been moving at zero miles per hour, or stationary. She is still really far out, just now picking up to a whopper of a speed at 5mph NNE. Start one if you think we need one, models take it awfully close to Florida. If nobody else does, I might make one after it makes a few landfalls in the Caribbean, and takes on shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Impressive high latitude blocking going on right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pretty high correllation between Nov. NAO readings and the general average for winter, right? Haven't looked at it myself, but yes, I've read that there is a good correlation between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Haven't looked at it myself, but yes, I've read that there is a good correlation between the two. I always heard it was the October NAO signal that correlated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 12z GFS had a pretty big cool down for the middle of November at the end of it's run and even had some fantasy snow for TN and WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I contest this image! Ga. never has a straight line of demarcation between snow for all and non for us. I mean really... Columbia gets snow between the portals, and B'ham gets snow, but Ga. gets the shaft except for Rosie and NEGa? Not likely, lol. This looks like a Burger Buggered map T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I contest this image! Ga. never has a straight line of demarcation between snow for all and non for us. I mean really... Columbia gets snow between the portals, and B'ham gets snow, but Ga. gets the shaft except for Rosie and NEGa? Not likely, lol. This looks like a Burger Buggered map T You know it's that crazy old GFS...once it gets past 240 it thinks it's back in the war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAO looks to stay solidly negative through veterans day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 And a little dot of snow right over Columbia,SC 12z GFS had a pretty big cool down for the middle of November at the end of it's run and even had some fantasy snow for TN and WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I think we should start looking towards the middle of the month. This is out in la la land but the GFS has been consistent with a cool down around that period and someone may be able to squeak something out if it sets up well. So far 00z GFS had the best setup though as always the moisture looked to be coming in while the cold was going away. Again 360+ hours out so take with a boulder of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Big snow build up long range GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Euro also had an interesting setup for next week. Yesterday it was close to a miller A on the 12z and on the 12z run today it looked kind of close as well. Might have to keep an eye on that time frame as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Now the gulf low I can believe. It's about time for some cold rain And Goofy's had that for a good while, off and on, out in la la dance land...glad the doc wants to take a spin around the floor. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Euro also had an interesting setup for next week. Yesterday it was close to a miller A on the 12z and on the 12z run today it looked kind of close as well. Might have to keep an eye on that time frame as well. Another styrostorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Another styrostorm? Where is the nearest construction site? I'm going to chase! Euro is still close to popping something @144 though for anyone in NC it would have to be perfect timing as sfc temps aren't really there. 00z GFS at around the same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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