valkhorn Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It was 1952...I wrote a short article (Link below) about that storm! http://en.wikipedia....owstorm_of_1952 But Wiki turned it down several times. Each time they listed something different for the reason of turning it down. After several attempts I finally gave up..It was my first attempt at submitting an article to wikipedia...those wiki folks are a tough crowd! Wikipedia has high standards? Who knew? Sorry! If anyone wants to view them without paying for pro, "Like" some of the meteorologists from Accu on Facebook and they post them periodically. (Henry Margusity) Links to wunderground forecasts? I've gone through several locations and they haven't shown it. GSP and TYS haven't updated any precip forecasts for that timeframe in the highest elevations and I don't see any moisture on the GFS or the NAM. The GFS and NAM both are putting a nice high with warmer temps in the area for Tuesday night. Unless you mean not this week but the next? Here the forecasts aren't out that far. EDIT: I see you mean not this week but the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GFS shows nothing but I have noticed the past three runs the 0z wants to flatten the pattern out. Still A LOT of time left to go with this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GFS shows nothing but I have noticed the past three runs the 0z wants to flatten the pattern out. Still A LOT of time left to go with this solution. No doubt about that..I cant believe im actually watching model runs come in hour by hour this early in the season Anyways...I dont think this one will get wrapped up all that tight. It is my opinion that it will have trouble maintaining purely tropical charachteristics very early in its life and will start taking on frontal like structure as it starts to pull away from Florida. Looking at guidance data it will probably be a rather large system and I would say there is a higher probability of an in close/landfalling track than there is of one going OTS. How deep this one gets remains to be seen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 No doubt about that..I cant believe im actually watching model runs come in hour by hour this early in the season Anyways...I dont think this one will get wrapped up all that tight. It is my opinion that it will have trouble maintaining purely tropical charachteristics very early in its life and will start taking on frontal like structure as it starts to pull away from Florida. Looking at guidance data it will probably be a rather large system and I would say there is a higher probability of an in close/landfalling track than there is of one going OTS. How deep this one gets remains to be seen! Ya it will be fun to track. At least we have something to track although seems like a lot of people getting worked up about something 180+ hours out. We will see what the Euro has to say later this morning. Really it would help if we did not look at the models until about Wed or Thur ,but it's to much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Not probable but possible. I've seen snow in Raleigh in late October (...many years back). Some of the model solutions advertised earlier are like... 1 in 200 year event. Not a good time to be on a cruise in the central Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GFS shows nothing but I have noticed the past three runs the 0z wants to flatten the pattern out. Still A LOT of time left to go with this solution. The 00z GFS is leaving the cold air behind and developing the front after that into a moderate storm with cold air behind it. The cold air is available but the GFS is not phasing the storm in the operational model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 00z GFS is leaving the cold air behind and developing the front after that into a moderate storm with cold air behind it. The cold air is available but the GFS is not phasing the storm in the operational model. Ya I think that there are so many dynamics to the front to the blocking to the tropical storm and all the upper air patterns that this will take until the end of this week for the models to really figure out what the hell is going to happen. Until then don't hang your fate in one run to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 At hour 144 the Euro already has the Tropical system much further West than the GFS. At 168 looks like the trough is trying to pull the tropical system into it off the NC coast. At 192 the trough really digs south and the energy begins to get absorbed by the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The Euro is not backing down from the amped up solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GFS looks a lot like the 00z from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro @180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 If the Euro is right? I would like to be staying in the Mountains next weekend! from MTS of Tenn- SW Pa. I'm hearing it's a heckuva of a snowstorm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 959 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED ONE-PART 00Z/22 ECMWF AND TWO-PARTS 00Z/22 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THERE ARE TWO MAJOR FEATURES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE INFLUENCING THE FLOW- THE TROPICAL LOW EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD TO THE BAHAMAS, AND THE AMPLIFYING POLAR JET OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. JUST HOW THESE FORCES INTERACT IS CRUCIAL, BUT AT THE TIME RANGE AT HAND, PREDICTING THEIR DANCE IS DICEY AT BEST. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE INCREASINGLY HYBRID CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST, THOUGH NOT AS FAR OUT TO SEA AS THE GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS. WILL COORDINATE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERIOR IS CONSIDERABLE, WITH MUCH OF THE NATION COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY. WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MARITIME POLAR AIR, WITH A MIXTURE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 If the Euro is right? I would like to be staying in the Mountains next weekend! from MTS of Tenn- SW Pa. I'm hearing it's a heckuva of a snowstorm!!! I call major BS. 3-5ft of snow is not happening. I think the GFS and EURO are both wrong at the moment to a degree. Wait till they both fall into agreement for a middle ground solution of a much less amplified storm... EURO probably too far west...like it was with Hurricane Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Just posting this for the sake of ridiculousness.. 0z Euro clown map. Repost from the NE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 I have a theory that something major may actually happen. This is Winter Weather Preparedness Week in Virginia. Last year Winter Weather Preparedness Week in Virginia was in DECEMBER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Well, looks like we have something interesting to follow for the next week. As long as it doesn't rain here on Halloween, I say bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 A breezy day for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 A breezy day for NC That's more than breezy. That's destructive and historic. If the GFS lines up then we can worry but until then there's no real model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 EURO takes it longer to phase in on this run...I think this is more likely to happen then some of the earlier runs showing deep cold shot. I want it cooler, but don't know if this is going to do the trick...We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 926mb 927.8mb Via Ryan Maue's twitter: https://t.co/3b0RDHdz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 926mb 927.8mb Via Ryan Maue's twitter: https://t.co/3b0RDHdz What is the Euro seeing that nothing else is? If this was just one run, it'd be forgivable but run after run it keeps taking the storm and strengthening it. 926mb at that latitude at this time of year would seem like a 1 in 500 year event. We'll see more model consensus 3-5 days from the storm no matter what happens, but until then I seriously think the Euro is smoking something potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 What is the Euro seeing that nothing else is? If this was just one run, it'd be forgivable but run after run it keeps taking the storm and strengthening it. 926mb at that latitude at this time of year would seem like a 1 in 500 year event. We'll see more model consensus 3-5 days from the storm no matter what happens, but until then I seriously think the Euro is smoking something potent. The high resolution Euro has been having problems with too low SLP's in the middle latitudes for several years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The high resolution Euro has been having problems with too low SLP's in the middle latitudes for several years now. Yep, remember our monsoon trough a couple years back, ECMWF on a 24hr panel took a 981 Cat1 Cane into ILM when it reality it was no more than a perturbation in the Caribbean influx of moisture. GGEM had/has a problem overdoing cyclogenesis (anti type too) across the board. Not at all surprised by the trend away from a sig phase over the past 18-24hrs, these extreme solutions never pan out as first advertised, best bet is to keep it kinda close and maybe it comes back around in the home stretch. Anyone want to start a Sandy/Halloween Storm thread? We have a tropical disco, and the mid-long range here, however, if anyone thinks this event needs its own thread feel free to start one. Traffic will steadily pick up throughout the week as folks come in wondering about this TC off the EC and where it is headed. Helps to keep all the SE specific talk in one place. p.s. Don't be surprised to see this trend back towards a sig EC storm late week, unsure why, maybe sampling then data sparse vs sampled again once the northern stream players hit the Pac NW. Happens pretty often during winter wx events, and it does not shock me anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Funny how back in 1993 the models caught onto and held the idea the superstorm "93" was going to take place and it ended up verefying. Seems like I heard from guys who had access to model data back then brag how much forwarning the models where putting out up to 5 days ahead of time. However fast forward to Jan 2000 and the models had no clue within 24 hours a big phase storm was gonna take place. Just shows how difficult it is to predict the weather, let alone these phased mega storms we all love to see unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What is the Euro seeing that nothing else is? Well... the CMC and Nogaps are not that far off of the euros pressure! The latest CMC gets down to 939Mb's and the latest nogaps run gets her down into the 940's..not that these pressures are likely to verify at that latitude. The GFS is really the only global model not showing an intense storm along the east coast at this point! Even though those pressures seem unlikely..one should take notice that the possibility of a very intense system along or just off the east coast is very real. There is a buzz around this place that all these guidance models are just out of there minds wrong.. when in all actuality.. we have decent agreement at this range (with the exception of the GFS) on a very intense system along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro and Can hold ground. Last night Can hands it to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Saw this on the NE thread. Latest Euro snowfall map. Just for kicks but looks like if this verified, which it most likely wont some of us wouldn't have to venture out to far to see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Saw this on the NE thread. Latest Euro snowfall map. Just for kicks but looks like if this verified, which it most likely wont some of us wouldn't have to venture out to far to see some flakes. Of course there is always the chance for some token flurries in NW NC and then there is the fact that it will be cold enough for the slopes to begin making snow. Cataloochee is trying to open on the 4th, which is their traditional date; opened on the 12th last yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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