GaWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 IJust keep it close throughout the week and hopefully we can park a 970'ish over PA in time for Halloween! WeatherNC, You'll probably love the 12Z Euro vs. the 12Z GFS. The 12Z Euro gives you ~4" of rain within a 24 hour period! I like it better than the 12Z GFS as it gets the -4 C 850 line into KATL. Both of these things are due to it winding up a good bit further west into PA at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 WeatherNC, You'll probably love the 12Z Euro vs. the 12Z GFS. The 12Z Euro gives you ~4" of rain within a 24 hour period! I like it better than the 12Z GFS as it gets the -4 C 850 line into KATL. Both of these things are due to it winding up a good bit further west into PA at one point. Just saw Allan's post in the main-side tropical thread, looks like a phaser, 970 into PA, already talk of server overload and pumpkins getting blown away! Note the tilt @ 168, yeah, that should grab whatever is out in the Atlantic and occlude it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I understand where you are coming from Larry in that a record min in Oct. for ATL correlates to enhanced p-type potential for the DJF period there from a statistical perspective. At the same time, cold this time of year just adds to our electric bill, therefore I prefer a uncommon meteorological event. Conversion to sub-tropical looks to occur off the EC of FL on this run of the GFS, supported to a large extent by the big 3 operationals (in general over the past 24hrs). As delta just mentioned, this run does look suspect, one can even see extra-tropical characteristics off the coast of NC around 162hrs (& conv feedback beyond 180). Then going from ~5640m to 5340m @ H5 in about 72hrs as it occludes off the tidewater, pretty unreal for Halloween, and unbelievable at this range. Any chance for record mins is fading fast, our best case scenario from a cold perspective would be for it wrap into NE and the OH Valley so that we would be on the cold side (yes to the south), and then we would only be dealing with highs in the 40's outside of the mountains, lows not too far from there, but cold nonetheless. Let the waffling continue... Just keep it close throughout the week and hopefully we can park a 970'ish over PA in time for Halloween! Congrats to the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Just saw Allan's post in the main-side tropical thread, looks like a phaser, 970 into PA, already talk of server overload and pumpkins getting blown away! Note the tilt @ 168, yeah, that should grab whatever is out in the Atlantic and occlude it. Shades of November 1950 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Shades of November 1950 anyone? I just got done reading the "Who needs Hazel" thread in the NE sub and for anyone wanting a good laugh on a Sunday afternoon, they are in rare form, so take a gander... 12z Euro is absolutely insane for our friends to the north, almost everyone in the SE would feel some impacts one way or another, most likely the wind. Linky the NE thread below as well as the H5 departures for 168-216 this run. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37331-who-needs-hazel-when-you-have-sandy/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I just got done reading the "Who needs Hazel" thread in the NE sub and for anyone wanting a good laugh on a Sunday afternoon, they are in rare form, so take a gander... 12z Euro is absolutely insane for our friends to the north, almost everyone in the SE would feel some impacts one way or another, most likely the wind. Linky the NE thread below as well as the H5 departures for 168-216 this run. Check out the insane blocking. Seems like we have pretty good agreement this far out for a major storm system of some shape or form. With the blocking shown, this thing would have NO where to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Check out the insane blocking. Seems like we have pretty good agreement this far out for a major storm system of some shape or form. With the blocking shown, this thing would have NO where to go. Jet, jet, jet... Pretty much turns it into a vacuum cleaner with cyclonic spin technology. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Kind of off topic, but how in the world does a storm in November bring down sub zero weather to areas as far south as TN like the 1950 storm did? That was one crazy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Kind of off topic, but how in the world does a storm in November bring down sub zero weather to areas as far south as TN like the 1950 storm did? That was one crazy storm. This is how: You need cold air to the north (this was late November so the air was available, a VERY deep low pressure, and one that bombs in the right location (981mb in this case), and it needs to take a track where it spills the cold air into TN. Notice the air didn't modify over the great lakes (lake water would have still been warm then) and probably went over deep snow pack over Canada and the upper midwest. The stars aligned for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I just got done reading the "Who needs Hazel" thread in the NE sub and for anyone wanting a good laugh on a Sunday afternoon, they are in rare form, so take a gander http://www.americanw...you-have-sandy/ Thanks for the heads-up - lol. CT Blitz is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Right now I am going with what the Euro is showing. More interaction with the tropical system and the trough coming in. The farther we get the tropical system to make landfall the deeper the trough is going to dig I think. I mean 850 degree temps in East TN and WNC -5 degrees with that low right over the Western part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 I HAVE SNOW IN MY FORECAST... Tuesday Night Partly cloudy with a chance of snow. Low of 34F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 I can see it now...here comes Hurricane Sandy from the NHC...and here comes the Weather Channel with Winter Storm Athena in the Atlantic Ocean. /face-palm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I can see it now...here comes Hurricane Sandy from the NHC...and here comes the Weather Channel with Winter Storm Athena in the Atlantic Ocean. /face-palm I think Athena was already named with the storm in northern MN earlier. I HAVE SNOW IN MY FORECAST... Tuesday Night Partly cloudy with a chance of snow. Low of 34F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. I don't see it in the forecast for even the highest elevations along the TN/NC border. Sure it wasn't a typo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 I think Athena was already named with the storm in northern MN earlier. I don't see it in the forecast for even the highest elevations along the TN/NC border. Sure it wasn't a typo? I am using Weather Underground. They have more snow for the mountains in the forecast than here in the foothills. Accuweather has mountains going into the mid 20s...with <.5inch of snow for Boone...stating rain will fall before temps get below freezing and start again the next day when temps get above freezing. (: Weather.com just gets to that day in the forecast. Lows near 34 with increasing clouds and the forecast ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Will this happen? NO. I am just happy to see the first chance of snow in my forecast across several sites! All I am seeing is a major pattern change is coming around Halloween. Some may see snow but I highly doubt the foothills will be included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 No in-accu pro maps guys, they are copyrighted and the property of said vendor, therefore posting them on here can lead to legal troubles and we do not want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Will this happen? NO. I am just happy to see the first chance of snow in my forecast across several sites! All I am seeing is a major pattern change is coming around Halloween. Some may see snow but I highly doubt the foothills will be included. Not probable but possible. I've seen snow in Raleigh in late October (...many years back). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 This is how: It was more of a rhetorical question than anything..................lol. I have gawked at all the maps and writeups of the storm, but it's still incredible to have subzero in January or Feb that far south, much less in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 No in-accu pro maps guys, they are copyrighted and the property of said vendor, therefore posting them on here can lead to legal troubles and we do not want that. Sorry! If anyone wants to view them without paying for pro, "Like" some of the meteorologists from Accu on Facebook and they post them periodically. (Henry Margusity) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 CMC...962mb...some solutions show stronger than Hurricane Hazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 No in-accu pro maps guys, they are copyrighted and the property of said vendor, therefore posting them on here can lead to legal troubles and we do not want that. Would be nice to go one day without all the legal thinking, however thats about all anyone ever thinks about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Would be nice to go one day without all the legal thinking, however thats about all anyone ever thinks about! Agree, while sad the current environment kind of breeds it from within. Companies are looking to turn a profit on any and all slip ups, and posting proprietary stuff here will open up a large can of worms none of us care to deal with. They charge folks for that data, and when it gets outside the realm of there so called pay per view portal, it can and does draw unwanted attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 CMC...962mb...some solutions show stronger than Hurricane Hazel. i think that's the 0z model from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Most if not all sites are slowly adding snow in the forecast... Ray's Weather Center Long range musings: Coldest thus far this fall possible during 10/28-10/30 timeframe. Pre-Halloween snow flurries possible High Country. Like · · Share · 3 · @raysweather on Twitter · about a minute agovia Twitter · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I just got done reading the "Who needs Hazel" thread in the NE sub and for anyone wanting a good laugh on a Sunday afternoon, they are in rare form, so take a gander... 12z Euro is absolutely insane for our friends to the north, almost everyone in the SE would feel some impacts one way or another, most likely the wind. Linky the NE thread below as well as the H5 departures for 168-216 this run. lol The hype machine is going full bore. DT put this up on Facebook. Wxrisk.com PEASE GET OFF THE WEB SITE.. soo many of you are on the web site you have crashed the server and I cannot update the web page EDIT: The spelling and punctuation proves it is authentic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 lol The hype machine is going full bore. DT put this up on Facebook. Wxrisk.com PEASE GET OFF THE WEB SITE.. soo many of you are on the web site you have crashed the server and I cannot update the web page EDIT: The spelling and punctuation proves it is authentic. Yep that thread is pretty intense. One thing I will say is it will be fun following this storm no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 lol The hype machine is going full bore. DT put this up on Facebook. Wxrisk.com PEASE GET OFF THE WEB SITE.. soo many of you are on the web site you have crashed the server and I cannot update the web page EDIT: The spelling and punctuation proves it is authentic. I saw that and got a big laugh!! Hey, Y'all! BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Knoxvilles heaviest snow was a storm similar to that in November of 1951 I believe. It was 1952...I wrote a short article (Link below) about that storm! http://en.wikipedia....owstorm_of_1952 But Wiki turned it down several times. Each time they listed something different for the reason of turning it down. After several attempts I finally gave up..It was my first attempt at submitting an article to wikipedia...those wiki folks are a tough crowd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.