Bevo Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 A big part of my winter grading...is what happens near Christmas. If it is in the 60s+ that is at least a letter grade reduction...whether we get above average snow or not later on. It makes perfect sense to me if people want to get upset about winter on approach to the holidays. I have no problem with people choosing to be upset about that, evethough historically it doesn't make a lot of sense for most SE folks below elevation. I've spent far more Christmases in a tee shirt than not - and had great winters following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I think that's part of it too...in reference to last winter and the GOA low. But that's just an emotional reaction. I think a big important key difference is that the strength and orientation of the GOA feature is different from last year. There is cold in Canada and it's supposed to get colder. That is hugely important. And that is real. And that is significant. And that has scientific bearing on how things might play out. And I agree with Bevo, even if you concede December, which is silly, Jan and Feb too? Really? The E Pacific / GOA low is a valid concern though, whenever it's there. It would take a big -NAO to offset it and get it cold and wintry in the SE, like what we saw in Dec 2010...we had the same Bering Sea ridge then, but also a big -NAO. Regarding Canada, it does look colder than last Nov overall, but there are some slight warm anomalies in the eastern half of Canada so far this November (though colder in the Yukon where the cold high pressures originate). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Dec 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 A big part of my winter grading...is what happens near Christmas. If it is in the 60s+ that is at least a letter grade reduction...whether we get above average snow or not later on. It makes perfect sense to me if people want to get upset about winter on approach to the holidays. You just have to adjust some traditions. Sung to the tune of Jingle Bells Walking through the grass, that's clear up to my ass. The sun is shining bright, my shorts are much too tight. The birds are in the trees, enjoying the warm breeze. There's still pollen in the air, that's why I have to sneeze. OH Southeast ridge, southeast ridge, you are very nice. My weather station read so warm, I had to check it twice. Southeast ridge southeast ridge, you are here to stay. As long as you remain offshore, our winter goes away. Merry Christmas everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The E Pacific / GOA low is a valid concern though, whenever it's there. It would take a big -NAO to offset it and get it cold and wintry in the SE, like what we saw in Dec 2010...we had the same Bering Sea ridge then, but also a big -NAO. Regarding Canada, it does look colder than last Nov overall, but there are some slight warm anomalies in the eastern half of Canada so far this November (though colder in the Yukon where the cold high pressures originate). The GOA low is definitely a concern, as you say. I'm just not concerned too much about it in November, that's all. If we're still talking about it in mid-January, that's a different story. But at this point, I don't see any reason to expect it to sit there like a big, fat pig like it did all last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 For the Lol's Go ahead and lock this in. I missed the Christmas storm two years ago because I was out in New Mexico, and I'll be out there again for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The GOA low is definitely a concern, as you say. I'm just not concerned too much about it in November, that's all. If we're still talking about it in mid-January, that's a different story. But at this point, I don't see any reason to expect it to sit there like a big, fat pig like it did all last winter. Those big fat pigs are only good to see in the Davis Strait, or in a pit in Eastern North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Those big fat pigs are only good to see in the Davis Strait, or in a pit in Eastern North Carolina. Now that's what I'm talkin about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Well, the euro went all to hell on us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The GOA low is definitely a concern, as you say. I'm just not concerned too much about it in November, that's all. If we're still talking about it in mid-January, that's a different story. But at this point, I don't see any reason to expect it to sit there like a big, fat pig like it did all last winter. I don't either, but I will be honest.................................just seeing it there AT ALL pushes those nasty thoughts to the forefront in my mind. I have already looked at a LOT of maps regarding that feature and the only emotion that comes to me is ........... UGHHHH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 You just have to adjust some traditions. Sung to the tune of Jingle Bells Walking through the grass, that's clear up to my ass. The sun is shining bright, my shorts are much too tight. The birds are in the trees, enjoying the warm breeze. There's still pollen in the air, that's why I have to sneeze. OH Southeast ridge, southeast ridge, you are very nice. My weather station read so warm, I had to check it twice. Southeast ridge southeast ridge, you are here to stay. As long as you remain offshore, our winter goes away. Merry Christmas everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Watch the time period December 12th - 16th. Overruning potential. This is after a big lakes cutter goes through next weekend. Models are pretty consistent showing warmth into early next week, then dry front comes through Wednesday returning temps back to normal, then 7 -8 days out a the lakes cutter goes by and is what drives the cold out of Canada down into the conus. A battle ground will be eastablished and in almost split flow fashion. We should atleast start seeing rain chances again in the SE. With Cold HP sliding through the NE, it should have no problem sending strong CAD down and inviting the oppurtunity more so for ice/mix /rain v/s snow on the east side of the apps. I'm in the camp we see some ice/mix situation by 12/20 here in the CAD areas. Pattern will be very conducive with the major cold thats gonna be established in Canada and along the US border states. May not be able to get the cold up top to produce snow, but at the surface it will be no problem east of the apps with HP's sliding across the NE. Ive noticed this happen a few times already this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Heck, at this point I'd settle for an ice storm in December. I'd even settle for a very good rain event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Well, if it ain't cold by New Years all it means is we had a warm Dec. If it ain't rained by New Years, it means we are much further into a bad drought. Best be worrying about snow chances failing due to lack of rain, rather than worrying what a warm Dec. might mean to a cold rest of winter. It is far easier to transition from warm to cold, than from drought to plenty...unless, of course, it starts to rain T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Well, if it ain't cold by New Years all it means is we had a warm Dec. If it ain't rained by New Years, it means we are much further into a bad drought. Best be worrying about snow chances failing due to lack of rain, rather than worrying what a warm Dec. might mean to a cold rest of winter. It is far easier to transition from warm to cold, than from drought to plenty...unless, of course, it starts to rain T I would agree. I just have a difficult time believing that the temps will suddenly spike above normal enough to average an actual warm December. I've been at or below normal temps since April (save a 7-10 stretch of heat wave in July). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 NAO modeling looks a little bit better today. More runs in the negative zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 PNA modeling is showing signs of getting back to neutral at least. According to today anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Still on the idea of widespread snow cover north-west of us...Nebraska to PA. Also snow pack finally explodes on the east coast of Canada...bleeds into upstate NY. What's that saying storms like to track on the southern extent of snow cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Why did you post this? If you're going to post a 324hr snow coverage from an op run of the GFS, add some discussion as to why. This image literally has zero significance. Simply posting this map does nothing but add clutter to the thread. Think before you post man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Why did you post this? If you're going to post a 324hr snow coverage from an op run of the GFS, add some discussion as to why. This image literally has zero significance. Simply posting this map does nothing but add clutter to the thread. Think before you post man. My crap is better the some of the other crap on here that is not being called into questioned. No point in adding a whole lot of disc. in yet...until things start getting more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Heck, at this point I'd settle for an ice storm in December. I'd even settle for a very good rain event! I don't either, but I will be honest.................................just seeing it there AT ALL pushes those nasty thoughts to the forefront in my mind. I have already looked at a LOT of maps regarding that feature and the only emotion that comes to me is ........... UGHHHH! Now that's what I'm talkin about! Those big fat pigs are only good to see in the Davis Strait, or in a pit in Eastern North Carolina. For the Lol's Go ahead and lock this in. I missed the Christmas storm two years ago because I was out in New Mexico, and I'll be out there again for Christmas. You just have to adjust some traditions. Sung to the tune of Jingle Bells Walking through the grass, that's clear up to my ass. The sun is shining bright, my shorts are much too tight. The birds are in the trees, enjoying the warm breeze. There's still pollen in the air, that's why I have to sneeze. OH Southeast ridge, southeast ridge, you are very nice. My weather station read so warm, I had to check it twice. Southeast ridge southeast ridge, you are here to stay. As long as you remain offshore, our winter goes away. Merry Christmas everyone!! This was just off the current page...in a long range discussion thread. Until things get more active...I don't see much harm in crap posts for now. Mods feel free to shoot me if I'm wrong. I also went out of my way to post this in my thread, not the pinned thread most are using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 My crap is better the some of the other crap on here that is not being called into questioned. No point in adding a whole lot of disc. in yet...until things start getting more active. It's all the same crap. Posting something more ensemble related for snowcover would make more sense than individual op runs of one model. The op run for snowcover that far out changes every single run so there is no point. Talking patterns, upper air charts, anomalies that far out is more concrete though. See what I mean? Also I think there is always room for disco, it's December...bad pattern or not. Also, the people adding nothing to the disco as well don't seem like they want to contribute. YOU seem like you want to contribute, I'm just trying to make it worthwhile & find out what you mean by your map posts in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 ^ I added some weenie info to go w/ my original post. We need some fantasy storms...bad. The drought must be killing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 What's that saying storms like to track on the southern extent of snow cover? I realize I am quoting myself here...just did a quick google search =P Here is a PDF file slide show w/ visuals. https://docs.google....9BnEYfg9H4YToVQ “Storms tend to ride along the southern edge of the snowpack where a natural baroclinic zone sets up.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 This was just off the current page...in a long range discussion thread. Until things get more active...I don't see much harm in crap posts for now. Mods feel free to shoot me if I'm wrong. I also went out of my way to post this in my thread, not the pinned thread most are using. You calling me out boy? Meet me in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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