NCSNOW Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Just sneeking another peek at 6z gfs LR. Still honking for a big cool down eastern US by months end. Average 1st killing frost here IMBY is 10/20. Not gonna happen this year. However the weather has been splendid. Upper 60's/70 every day and low-mid 40's at night. The leaves are starting to take off the past couple of days around here. Not sure with the delay of frost if will hit our peek Halloween day/first week of NOV or get delayed. Think diminishing sun angle plays important role on this process as much as the first avg frost. Should be able to test this theory out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Just sneeking another peek at 6z gfs LR. Still honking for a big cool down eastern US by months end. Average 1st killing frost here IMBY is 10/20. Not gonna happen this year. However the weather has been splendid. Upper 60's/70 every day and low-mid 40's at night. The leaves are starting to take off the past couple of days around here. Not sure with the delay of frost if will hit our peek Halloween day/first week of NOV or get delayed. Think diminishing sun angle plays important role on this process as much as the first avg frost. Should be able to test this theory out this year. Here's the 6z for Halloween. Looks like a cold start to November; and more importantly some good snow cover build up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Here's the 6z for Halloween. Looks like a cold start to November; and more importantly some good snow cover build up in Canada. Don't look now but the GFS is dressing up as a frosty pumpkin for national candy day. Could my Halloween snow prediction be coming true?? Trending warm, now this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Looks ike in the Mid to long range the country is setting up to be in a gradient pattern but the models have been going from big ridge to trough lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 Long range snow buildup...just fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 Here's the 6z for Halloween. Looks like a cold start to November; and more importantly some good snow cover build up in Canada. I see something in the Caribbean there...it will probably shoot a sharp north-east turn though this time of year. GFS was showing a hurricane on Halloween for Florida and then.....nvm. Looks like it backed off on the doom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 No frost/freeze concerns for days it looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Long range snow buildup...just fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Dam Okie you beat me to it..looks good for early November to me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I think it was the 99 - 2000 winter.we had some smaller snow events around GSP area in mid Nov for about 2 weeks and then winter was over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I think it was the 99 - 2000 winter.we had some smaller snow events around GSP area in mid Nov for about 2 weeks and then winter was over I think you meant 2000-2001. That was when we had the snow the weekend before Thanksgiving and a smaller event the weekend after the holiday. After that the winter was cold but we did not see any wintry precip. The winter of 2000 featured several winter storms with one of them being the Carolina Crusher that gave me a foot of snow. That one did miss the I-85 area and northward though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 U are correct,I'm getting old.we actually had a big storm forcasted around that time that busted.we had a warning out for 4-8 ,and got a dusting at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaDog Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Dr Masters chimes in: Forecast for the winter... In a nutshell, NOAA likes the SE (NC, SC, GA, TN, AL, MS, VA) to be normal temp wise; FL below normal. NOAA has the gulf states above normal precip; rest of the SE around normal. Dr Masters mentions the NAO/AO and solar activity and how the predicted activity for this winter would tend to argue for +AO. He also discusses how the low Artic sea ice argues for a better chance of a -AO and shifts his attention to El Nino and reading between the lines, I get the feeling he's expecting neutral condiitons to persist. I like one of the ending paragraphs were he talks about the unpredictability of winter and with the wild swings in recents years, the wildest swing this year would be for a normal winter across the US. He lastly mentions the upcoming woolley worm festival in Banner Elk. So, in honor of the good Dr, the woolley worms here in S Asheville are pretty consistent in being 2/3 brown- protraying a less than snowy winter for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 6z GFS at 10 days: Same time period has been avertised for a big cool down by GFS for the last few days. Also as stated before, some really good snow build up in Canada (important for winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 6z GFS at 10 days: Same time period has been avertised for a big cool down by GFS for the last few days. Also as stated before, some really good snow build up in Canada (important for winter). The cool down will be nice, but I sure hope the moisture starts trending upward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Does anyone see any snow on maps for the NC Mtns. yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 This is about 9 days from now (28th) but the GFS has it getting significantly COLDER, maybe even some flurries for the high elevations of NE GA/W. NC/E. TN? (Verbatim looks like a snowstorm for Western VA) It stays fairly cold all the way until Halloween. This is from the 6z GFS, I haven't looked at the 12z run for today yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 This is about 9 days from now (28th) but the GFS has it getting significantly COLDER, maybe even some flurries for the high elevations of NE GA/W. NC/E. TN? (Verbatim looks like a snowstorm for Western VA) It stays fairly cold all the way until Halloween. This is from the 6z GFS, I haven't looked at the 12z run for today yet. For the 6z verbatim I don't see snow for TN, NC mountains or western VA, it's just cold chasing moisture and the cold is far behind. 12z is only out to 72 for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Great "fantasy" storm on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Breaking out the salt and shovel...I'm sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 it's just cold chasing moisture Congrats! First mention of the 12-13 winter. Sadly, there will be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Great "fantasy" storm on the 12z. Keep in mind that at long range the GFS has poor resolution, so this could mean heavy snow for WV and nowhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Next week looking toasty as we begin to end October... And then the warmth reverses from east to out west for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Keep in mind that at long range the GFS has poor resolution, so this could mean heavy snow for WV and nowhere else. Pretty sure that is why he said "fantasy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Congrats! First mention of the 12-13 winter. Sadly, there will be more. Thanks bro! Happy to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 As I recall, I think November -NAO's have the highest correlation to winter time -NAO's. that's a good sign if it stays negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Long range storminess...324hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Storm yes, but also a heat pump. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Looks like after the 25th we could see a big surge of cold air making its way down into the South and East. It is in the long range but the GFS has been showing this dip in the jet stream on and off for about a week and the Euro has picked it up now. Until then enjoy the nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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