Met1985 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Let's wake up over here. December will be here in a couple of weeks and the models are starting to throw out some interesting forecasts. Ya I agree this past month has been miles better than last already. We have already recorded 6 inches of snow were I live and we have had our lowest low of 16 degrees already and we have had some good string of lows in the teens already. This pattern we are currently in is way better than anything we saw last year. The pattern coming up looks like things may start right on time for Met Winter to be cold and possibly snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Let's wake up over here. December will be here in a couple of weeks and the models are starting to throw out some interesting forecasts. Agreed, I think we will have an interesting winter, unlike last winter. The only thing is its rare for non-mountain areas to get wintery weather in December, it could be 6-8 weeks before we realistically see any chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 All of the winter forecasts I have read seem promising, nothing is guaranteed of course but I feel good about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Wow, talk about shafting the Mid-Atl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 0z GFS really advancing an arctic dagger for the Eastern US to close out November... -10C 850mb temps reaching into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 DT is bullish on the upcoming winter - http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/11/final-winter-preview-2012-13/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 DT is bullish on the upcoming winter - http://www.wxrisk.co...review-2012-13/ Big surprise there. And did he just call NAO the "North American Oscillation"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 0z GFS really advancing an arctic dagger for the Eastern US to close out November... -10C 850mb temps reaching into the Carolinas. The hammer drops in the Yukon. Mercy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Well the thing that most intrigues me right now is the trough that is show to drop down around the 25th. The GFS is no were near as strong as the Euro. That would be one heck of a storm if the Euro was to very in the NE. The trough is much sharper on the Euro than the GFS. Interesting to see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Just my opinion but it looks like the long range euro tonight wants to carve out a deep trough out west and focus the cold shot out there. There does seem to be a -NAO building though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 The canadian, however, agrees with the GFS and sends a cold shot deep into the SE at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Well that's certainly a possibility, though the Euro may just be holding energy back over the west as it's known to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 6z GFS has an interesting setup out at 12 days. This is still too far out to get into specifics but if the general setup can happen we might be looking at a winter storm somewhere in the SE. After this frame it shows what could be a CAD event but hard to tell, after that (day 15) the high moves out a big warm up occurs. Like the euro last night maybe a big push of cold air into the NW. 6z GFS at day 12: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Big surprise there. And did he just call NAO the "North American Oscillation"? Lol yes he did every time he said it. Someone commented below and told him he is hardley ever wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Cold shot coming during the first week of December? Although it appears highly technical, take a look at this graph. The bottom data shows changes in Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum or GLAAM. In brief, the speed of the rotation of the Earth can be altered, albeit very slightly, by winds and how they interact with mountains across the globe. Usually, a positive spike in the data precedes a cold snap, and leads to a "blocky" or "amplified" pattern, or one in which upper level winds are more likely to push colder air into our region. Currently, one of these spikes is occurring which may lead to a shot of much colder air during the first week of December. Notice the last spike in January, correlated with a high of 20 degrees in Blacksburg on January 3, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Allan Huffman was talking about that cold shot the first of December in his blog today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Allan Huffman was talking about that cold shot the first of December in his blog today. Jb mentioned it two weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Jb mentioned it two weeks ago What about wxsouth? Did he miss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 What about wxsouth? Did he miss it? No just about two days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Although it appears highly technical, take a look at this graph. The bottom data shows changes in Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum or GLAAM. That's wild to see a NWS office put out something on GLAAM. Figured they would leave that to weather board fodder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Trending...south...east...for whatever its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Still waiting for a long range fantasy storm to show up for CLT. Nice to be expecting one this year; at least a fantasy one. Yeah, 6z looks close but then gets warm at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Trending...south...east...for whatever its worth. Even that much would be nice this time of the year. Sort of an appetizer for the big stuff down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The difference between models is downright hilarious right now beginning at about 4-5 days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Not sure where else to post this, but a good resource going forward: http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Another: http://www.cpc.ncep....sup814_temp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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