burgertime Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Hey back on topic the 12z GFS had a more realistic look to it in the LR...temps are pretty much seasonal if not a touch on the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 By the way Burger, you were correct that the Euro Weeklies do come out on Thursday, and they looked pretty good from what I've read for weeks 3-4. I believe they come out on both Mon and Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 GFS long range still keeping the idea of a dbl block (Greenland & AK) - also known as the Pam Anderson pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 By the way Burger, you were correct that the Euro Weeklies do come out on Thursday, and they looked pretty good from what I've read for weeks 3-4. I believe they come out on both Mon and Thurs. Yea I knew they came out twice a week, I just couldn't remember which days. Good to know especially since the GFS keeps signaling colder weather coming along with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 The November release of the JAMSTEC seasonal model is out, and it has below normal temperatures in the eastern U.S for the upcoming winter. Precipitation looks near normal in the southeast…very slightly below normal west of the mountains, and very slightly above east of the mountains. So, how has the November release of the JAMSTEC performed in recent years for the eastern U.S.? Nov 2011: Very good, it had above normal temps for most of the country for the 2011-2012 winter, which was correct Nov 2010: Very poor, it had above normal temps in the eastern U.S., which was incorrect Nov 2009: Very good, it had below normal temps in the east (particularly in the southeast), which was correct Nov 2008: OK, it had slightly above normal temps in the east. Temps in the east were near normal, but below normal over the Great Lakes. Nov 2007: Very good, it had slightly above normal temps in the east, except for slightly below normal temps in the western Great Lakes, which was quite good. So, overall, this seasonal model has performed quite well in recent years with its November release, with the major exception being the 2010-2011 winter. Here's the Nov 2012 release (temperatures): Here's the Nov 2011 release for last winter (temperatures): It's amazing how much of a straight reversal that seems to be. Last year the whole world seemed colder except CONUS. This year whole world is warmer except CONUS. Seems to mirror the -NAO reversal from last year to this year as well too. If everybody doesn't stop I may start getting excited about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 The models and long range outlooks keep looking good for winter. I don't want to get too excited, but it's hard not to. It seems things are really shaping up well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 ...Looks more and more like central Canada will indeed have the mother load of cold(globally speaking) over the next month. On the modeling there are few if any signals that it will come this far anytime soon. If anything, the models this AM send it into the eastern slopes of the northern Rockies. My concern as a person who loves winter is that once the pattern becomes favorable(if it becomes favorable) the cold will be on the other side of the hemisphere. It would appear this is very bad "luck" at this point - very bad luck indeed. Right now, I think cold Decembers predicted for the Southeast are in big trouble. If we are to get a true, enduring artic outbreak we may be waiting for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 ...Looks more and more like central Canada will indeed have the mother load of cold(globally speaking) over the next month. On the modeling there are few if any signals that it will come this far anytime soon. If anything, the models this AM send it into the eastern slopes of the northern Rockies. My concern as a person who loves winter is that once the pattern becomes favorable(if it becomes favorable) the cold will be on the other side of the hemisphere. It would appear this is very bad "luck" at this point - very bad luck indeed. Right now, I think cold Decembers predicted for the Southeast are in big trouble. If we are to get a true, enduring artic outbreak we may be waiting for quite some time. If we're talking about models really the 6z this morning has been the only run outside of one or two on the GFS that doesn't have the cold coming down...the Euro last night looked like it was setting up something good at 240 just to my eyes anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 If we're talking about models really the 6z this morning has been the only run outside of one or two on the GFS that doesn't have the cold coming down...the Euro last night looked like it was setting up something good at 240 just to my eyes anyways. The trough is on average in the east, but what I'm seeing is what we've been seeing for a while on the Euro...nice cold in Canada but nothing of magnitude coming south. Just cooler weather. The AO doesn't look optimal this am. The NAO looks like it has gone positive and is playing that game where it might go neg but might not. I really don't buy the GFS right now until winter's pattern is established whatever that may be. Maybe some passing cold, but not established. True artic air stays north. Hope you are right, Burger. The ENSO, showing signs of being neutral, is a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Probably shows just how difficult it is to make seasonal forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Here, take this 240 hr GGEM and call me in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Here, take this 240 hr GGEM and call me in the morning . The cold in Canada is impressive. Will it stay and is there a mechanism for it to go south. Will build some nice snow pack for later cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 . The cold in Canada is impressive. Will it stay and is there a mechanism for it to go south. Will build some nice snow pack for later cold fronts. Well the only thing I am excited about with the models is the blocking returning, hopefully by end of December we can get the pacific to cooperate. You would think with the double blocking being shown it would squeeze the cold air south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 The blocking at high latitudes is a good sign IMO that December will be fun to follow...gotta remember though, the big key to popping any storm is the PNA ridge on the West Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 The blocking at high latitudes is a good sign IMO that December will be fun to follow...gotta remember though, the big key to popping any storm is the PNA ridge on the West Coast Which hopefully GaWx can pull out a weak ElNino for us to help us out in the pacific :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Its still not quite winter yet but there are a few concern s as stated above. I think a reserved and guarded optimisim is in order right now. I could see this thing going either way. All that said we still appear to be ahead of the game we played last year at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 For the past four years models have flipped and flopped over and over. Today is the 17th of November so no concern about winter yet. Several red taggers feel good about it so lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 12z Euro looks tantilizing again beyond D+7. The Aleutian block is driving over AK and looks primed to connect up with a building westeen ridge by D+10. Over the Atlantic a 50/50 low is in place and oushing up heights over Greenland. Looks like a cold start to December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 12z Euro looks tantilizing again beyond D+7. The Aleutian block is driving over AK and looks primed to connect up with a building westeen ridge by D+10. Over the Atlantic a 50/50 low is in place and oushing up heights over Greenland. Looks like a cold start to December. Now, that would be nice. Is that the famous Cahirs connection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Weatherbell and wxsouth mentioning could be cold before too long. Start of month could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 For the record, I am not saying winter is going in the tank...There are just fewer positives than I would like to see. We can have a good winter, even if it starts late. Canada is due for a cold winter. It would be difficult to match last winter's suck factor of 9.9. What I am looking for is a mechanism to drive the early cold south. Wow, mentioned a possibility in his last post. At least there are possibilities in fantasy land. Last year, we were even deprived of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 For the record, I am not saying winter is going in the tank...There are just fewer positives than I would like to see. We can have a good winter, even if it starts late. Canada is due for a cold winter. It would be difficult to match last winter's suck factor of 9.9. What I am looking for is a mechanism to drive the early cold south. Wow, mentioned a possibility in his last post. At least there are possibilities in fantasy land. Last year, we were even deprived of that. Last winter was truly hopeless, even in the mid/long range models. This Aleutian Ridge looks to be the real deal and will portend to real pattern shake-up. The sight of a real "blocky" pattern emerging is giving me something to look forward to as met winter begins in a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 For the record, I am not saying winter is going in the tank...There are just fewer positives than I would like to see. We can have a good winter, even if it starts late. Canada is due for a cold winter. It would be difficult to match last winter's suck factor of 9.9. What I am looking for is a mechanism to drive the early cold south. Wow, mentioned a possibility in his last post. At least there are possibilities in fantasy land. Last year, we were even deprived of that. This is true The fantasy blocking that's being shown, is at least giving me hope it won't be as bad as last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I picked December 7th a few months ago for the first widespread winter weather event, like a 2002 ice storm redux. I had a feeling about the first part of December, maybe my mojo is rubbing off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 For the record, I am not saying winter is going in the tank...There are just fewer positives than I would like to see. We can have a good winter, even if it starts late. Canada is due for a cold winter. It would be difficult to match last winter's suck factor of 9.9. What I am looking for is a mechanism to drive the early cold south. Wow, mentioned a possibility in his last post. At least there are possibilities in fantasy land. Last year, we were even deprived of that. No way last winter's suck factor wasn't a 10...............just sayin. BTW - I am on board with a cold beginning to December. It may be delayed a week or so, but I like a cold week or two in December. Region 3.4 warming substantially in the last several days also is a reason to be optimistic as we head toward met winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Big storm on the 18z GFS around hour 240 that develops a massive Greenland block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 No way last winter's suck factor wasn't a 10...............just sayin. BTW - I am on board with a cold beginning to December. It may be delayed a week or so, but I like a cold week or two in December. Region 3.4 warming substantially in the last several days also is a reason to be optimistic as we head toward met winter.... I was just leaving room for some unseen 1,000 year horrid winter...I don't want to tempt winter to show me a SF10.1. As they say never say it can't get worse than this. So I'm going with a SF9.99. Got to leave room for a perfect score...and I hope I never see it! Good to see everyone in here tonight...been too quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Let's wake up over here. December will be here in a couple of weeks and the models are starting to throw out some interesting forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Personally, I don't feel any of the paranoia that is coming out on some of these threads is warranted. This pattern that is evolving is already miles beyond that **** pattern that evolved last Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 FWIW,the local accuwx longer range forcast for Gville,SC has 2 or 3 days at the very end of Nov.,and first few days of Dec,with rain,and lows of 28 to 30.not sure what models they use,but it looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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