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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion I

WilkesboroDude

By WilkesboroDude,
in Southeastern States

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

Until some other factor gets hyped up just a wee bit much. It's always some new topic that the talk of the board.. from NAO, to the EPO, to the MJO, to the GLAAM, and now stratospheric vortices. They all play a part, but which effects what?... or is it the other way around? That's the big question.

After two-three years ago with a negative NAO (good winter weater) and last year with a terrible year with it positive, I'm convinced that -NAO is a must for a good winter. How to get it and the variables involved I don't know. You're right, everybody seems to know that x does y, etc but usually somebody will use other factors and say something completely different.

All I know, thanks to Griteater, we need to see the big yellow blobs near the north pole and the blue blobs down near us!!

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GaStorm

GaStorm

Posted
Posted

After two-three years ago with a negative NAO (good winter weater) and last year with a terrible year with it positive, I'm convinced that -NAO is a must for a good winter. How to get it and the variables involved I don't know. You're right, everybody seems to know that x does y, etc but usually somebody will use other factors and say something completely different.

All I know, thanks to Griteater, we need to see the big yellow blobs near the north pole and the blue blobs down near us!!

While a -NAO is usually a huge player, I would think there are some examples of when we got winter weather by a +NAO combined with a -EPO setup as well.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

With Goofy everything could verify.... until we see some low teens in Miami smile.png That's when the doubt creeps in, lol. The end of the month has looked colder for a while now, and if it keeps getting better I won't complain. Robert was talking about double blocking a few days back, and I'd love to see it. It's just I worry about having good things in late Nov/early Dec, that might leave us with nada come Jan, and Feb. Last winter memories strike terror. Still, one of these years we'll get good things in Aces, and we'll have the winter they'll be talking about in 100 years...like the 1880's around here. It's so easy for hope to spring eternal in mid Nov., but what will we be thinking in a month? It'd sure help to get the weak Nino, for Atl. anyway. T

how do i get to Robert's site to join up to get his weather? DOES ANYONE KNOW?
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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

When you sign up, then you'll see a Donate button. I got him to put that up so I could pay for several months in advance when I was flush, which isn't often, lol. Now I don't have to worry about whether I've paid or not when the snow show begins to go!! If you want to pay for the winter all at once, that's the way to go. Sign up now so the boy doesn't have to go counties away, to work for a pitance, so he can keep his weather jones fed!!! Everybody loves a bundle, instead of a strung out partial.

I like the GFS over all. Usually when it says something in La La Land, something will eventuall happen. Maybe not as shown two weeks ago, but somewhere in the ball park, some of the time, lol. Say it shows snow to Orlando...well, the Tenn. Valley might actually see some. And my favorite, freezing to Cuba with a massive Gom low. That will often verify as light rain and 35 here, somewhere in the general time frame. You just have to massage the message to get a glimpse of the future, when looking at the Gfs la la crystal ball...and it helps not to be too particular, past a few days :) T

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

When you sign up, then you'll see a Donate button. I got him to put that up so I could pay for several months in advance when I was flush, which isn't often, lol. Now I don't have to worry about whether I've paid or not when the snow show begins to go!! If you want to pay for the winter all at once, that's the way to go. Sign up now so the boy doesn't have to go counties away, to work for a pitance, so he can keep his weather jones fed!!! Everybody loves a bundle, instead of a strung out partial.

I like the GFS over all. Usually when it says something in La La Land, something will eventuall happen. Maybe not as shown two weeks ago, but somewhere in the ball park, some of the time, lol. Say it shows snow to Orlando...well, the Tenn. Valley might actually see some. And my favorite, freezing to Cuba with a massive Gom low. That will often verify as light rain and 35 here, somewhere in the general time frame. You just have to massage the message to get a glimpse of the future, when looking at the Gfs la la crystal ball...and it helps not to be too particular, past a few days smile.png T

I only see two options for pay pal. annually or monthly. you said there is another button to sign up for the whole winter or do I just pay for about three months?
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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

For as good as the GFS looked in the LR the Euro looked bad. Granted the Euro only goes out to 10days, but looks nothing like the GFS, and shows a +NAO the whole run. With this and the just released seasonal models showing a +NAO for the winter, this isn't a great start to winter.

No it doesn't...

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

I know forecasting snow outside of the mountains in NC is one of the most diffucult things to do. Is there one model that usually does better, though, in regards to getting the forecast right for snow around here?

This is an older model, but has a good reputation and is still used by many SE on the air mets to forecast the probability of snow.

i-hPkJRPF-L.jpg

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
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I only see two options for pay pal. annually or monthly. you said there is another button to sign up for the whole winter or do I just pay for about three months?

Hey, Fritschy! Yeah, I see what you mean. I'll write him an email and tell him to get the button up on the free part. I see it when I log in, but not in the public section.

Or I guess you could sign up, pay for one month, then use the donate button to pay for the rest. I just didn't want to have to pay 5 times at once, so he put up the donate button so I wasn't just stuck with 9.95 , but had a choice of however many months, but I guess he didn't get it onto the free portion. Wait a day or two, if you want, and I'm sure he'll fix it. Glad you are going to sign up for the winter. You won't be disappointed. He is so good with winter weather it is scary, lol. T

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WinterWonderland

WinterWonderland

Posted
Posted

I just now signed up for one month on Robert's site, but nothing looks any different. I was already registered as a free member so signed in as that, but appear to only get what I had before. Logged out and logged back in but that didn't help. I'll try again tomorrow and if that doesn't work will email him.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

I just now signed up for one month on Robert's site, but nothing looks any different. I was already registered as a free member so signed in as that, but appear to only get what I had before. Logged out and logged back in but that didn't help. I'll try again tomorrow and if that doesn't work will email him.

Hit the Current weather Tab and you will see where he updates/blogs daily!

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

Boy the 06Z is a thing of beauty. To bad it is in LR. Something to keep an eye on though. That would truly be a shot of arctic air especially this time of the year.

Yes, the GFS has been going back and forth with a tantilizing LR forecast - big -NAO sig and possible +PNA developing (something we southeasterners need for any storms of significance). The Euro weeklies, apparently, are hinting at these same elements developing.

One element that has been shown consistently on all the models in the mid to long range is the N Pac block nosing up just west of AK. That seems to be the key to setting these models off on what lie ahead.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

Hey, Fritschy! Yeah, I see what you mean. I'll write him an email and tell him to get the button up on the free part. I see it when I log in, but not in the public section.

Or I guess you could sign up, pay for one month, then use the donate button to pay for the rest. I just didn't want to have to pay 5 times at once, so he put up the donate button so I wasn't just stuck with 9.95 , but had a choice of however many months, but I guess he didn't get it onto the free portion. Wait a day or two, if you want, and I'm sure he'll fix it. Glad you are going to sign up for the winter. You won't be disappointed. He is so good with winter weather it is scary, lol. T

thanks dsaur I will wait a couple of days and see if Robert puts the extra button up.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

The November release of the JAMSTEC seasonal model is out, and it has below normal temperatures in the eastern U.S for the upcoming winter. Precipitation looks near normal in the southeast…very slightly below normal west of the mountains, and very slightly above east of the mountains.

So, how has the November release of the JAMSTEC performed in recent years for the eastern U.S.?

Nov 2011: Very good, it had above normal temps for most of the country for the 2011-2012 winter, which was correct

Nov 2010: Very poor, it had above normal temps in the eastern U.S., which was incorrect

Nov 2009: Very good, it had below normal temps in the east (particularly in the southeast), which was correct

Nov 2008: OK, it had slightly above normal temps in the east. Temps in the east were near normal, but below normal over the Great Lakes.

Nov 2007: Very good, it had slightly above normal temps in the east, except for slightly below normal temps in the western Great Lakes, which was quite good.

So, overall, this seasonal model has performed quite well in recent years with its November release, with the major exception being the 2010-2011 winter.

Here's the Nov 2012 release (temperatures):

jamstcnov2012.png

Here's the Nov 2011 release for last winter (temperatures):

jamstcnov2011.png

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Hey, Fritschy! Yeah, I see what you mean. I'll write him an email and tell him to get the button up on the free part. I see it when I log in, but not in the public section.

Or I guess you could sign up, pay for one month, then use the donate button to pay for the rest. I just didn't want to have to pay 5 times at once, so he put up the donate button so I wasn't just stuck with 9.95 , but had a choice of however many months, but I guess he didn't get it onto the free portion. Wait a day or two, if you want, and I'm sure he'll fix it. Glad you are going to sign up for the winter. You won't be disappointed. He is so good with winter weather it is scary, lol. T

This has absolutely nothing to do with mid-long range SE wx disco, please keep stuff like this out of the weather threads, or better yet, a private message. Thank you

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Keep in mind this how he makes his living. Its 100 for the year. Or 9.95 a month. As much as he has done for this forum i believe most of us can help him out.

But thats just my opinion. You wont be disappointed

This has absolutely nothing to do with the mid-long range disco either, come on guys, seriously? I have been in contact with Lookout regarding this issue and my intent is to provide a more detailed explanation tonight after work. For the time being, any and all disco pertaining to 3rd party pay per view sites, whether it be InAccuPro, or Foothill's site need to go, and stay in wx marketplace, period.

A passing mention of so-n-so said this is fine, but talking about payment info, attempts to promote the site, etc, are a non-starter outside of the marketplace. As I stated, I will give a more detailed explanation, and add some clarification this evening. Heads up, if I see it again, warning bar elevation will be dealt. I appreciate everyone's cooperation regarding this, thank you.

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