BullCityWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Yea Euro has nothing in the way of cold in the LR. yeah, it's not even close. I wouldnt be shocked to see the warmth last into the first week of December, judging on what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 yeah, it's not even close. I wouldnt be shocked to see the warmth last into the first week of December, judging on what I've seen. I haven't looked at the charts, wasn't the NAO supposed to be heading down hill this week? Figured within 14 days we would at least see some sign of the cold air funneling down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Its because the Pacific is trainwrecking the pattern...By the end of the EURO's run, the cold air source is cutoff from the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Yeah, that trough right off the west coast is ugly. Euro Ensemble 5h pattern gives solid support for a decent coastal storm for cool rains in parts of the Carolinas and Virginia this weekend (also seen on Euro and CMC). Some above normal heights showing up across the Arctic in the extended, so we'll have to see if that holds going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 yeah, it's not even close. I wouldnt be shocked to see the warmth last into the first week of December, judging on what I've seen. It's only the 12th of November. Let's stay calm until the 12th of December. :~) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Good thing the Euro is not the only model guidance we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 weeks 3 @ 4 of the weeklies look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The 00z GFS run is a keeper with tanking AO and NAO. One thing to watch for is this trough / upper low that is carved out over the SE and off the coast this weekend...it then gets kicked out to the east underneath the S Canada ridging, with below normal heights eventually extending out toward the Azores...and the GFS later develops additional ridging to its north over Greenland, combining for -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Any sign of severe weather in the next couple of weeks? NC is pretty notorious for a round of tornadoes in late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Yeah. November 28,1988 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The 00z GFS run is a keeper with tanking AO and NAO. One thing to watch for is this trough / upper low that is carved out over the SE and off the coast this weekend...it then gets kicked out to the east underneath the S Canada ridging, with below normal heights eventually extending out toward the Azores...and the GFS later develops additional ridging to its north over Greenland, combining for -NAO. 12z:all models continue to show tanking NAO http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zNAOcomparison.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 12z:all models continue to show tanking NAO http://raleighwx.ame...comparison.html 12z looked good at the end of it's run. Almost thought someone just to the north might get a fantasy blizzard out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I am not as optimistic with more of a neutral ENSO setup now forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I am not as optimistic with more of a neutral ENSO setup now forecast. Well things can't be as bad as last year, that's for sure, although that isn't saying much. Hopefully ENSO is atleast neutral/positive and not neutral/negative as some models have now. With everything pointing to having a -NAO this winter that hopefully will give us some chances. Although if you read HM's comments on the sun activity and how that could lead to the NAO being positive, that doesn't give great comfort. The CFSv2 was really dead on last year if you check out it's verifications, the fact that it has December trending colder is a positive too. Although I guess it could have been lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 From Allan Huffman@RaleighWx (Twitter) 12z ECMWF Ensembles show a very strong west-based -NAO block late in 11-15 day period. Cold pattern looking likely early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 From Allan Huffman@RaleighWx (Twitter) 12z ECMWF Ensembles show a very strong west-based -NAO block late in 11-15 day period. Cold pattern looking likely early December. Looks like we're getting a good set up just a bit too early. Hopefully it'll show up again January or February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Looks like we're getting a good set up just a bit too early. Hopefully it'll show up again January or February. Saw Van Denton ,FOX8 ,last night talking about thnaksgiving forecast.GFS is showing sunny and 60's.Euro is showing snow in Mountains ,rain here and 40's.He stated Euro is usually good on winter forecast.Anyone have any thoughts on this upcoming holiday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Looks like we're getting a good set up just a bit too early. Hopefully it'll show up again January or February. I hope so .... But the euro ensembles backed way off of the west based -nao they were showing on tuesday. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Well to me that's good news, the longer we go without a -NAO the more likely we are to flip back to one later in the winter. I hope we stay positive through mid December. That's probably completely unscientific and not necessarily the case (as in last year) but it seems to make sense and makes me feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Well to me that's good news, the longer we go without a -NAO the more likely we are to flip back to one later in the winter. I hope we stay positive through mid December. That's probably completely unscientific and not necessarily the case (as in last year) but it seems to make sense and makes me feel better. I'm pretty sure that's the opposite of what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Well to me that's good news, the longer we go without a -NAO the more likely we are to flip back to one later in the winter. I hope we stay positive through mid December. That's probably completely unscientific and not necessarily the case (as in last year) but it seems to make sense and makes me feel better. Ask last winter how that turned out. It never really happened. I think last winter was so horrid we just want something to pop earlier to make us feel better. Either way for the last few runs the GFS has looked good in the long range and the Euro didn't look too bad at the end of it's run either last night at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I'm pretty sure that's the opposite of what we want. I guess it just doesn't seem likely that a negative regime would last the winter if it took hold in mid/late November. Makes me wonder when it went from negative to positive last year. But yes, I guess anything is better than last year! The way Robert sounds, it's going to be the predominate set up this year. Gotta like that optimism... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I am not as optimistic with more of a neutral ENSO setup now forecast. You think moving from weak El Nino to weak-weak El Nino/neutral-leaning-positive ENSO it going to make that much of a difference in everyone's thoughts? Other than the obvious differences between strong and weak ENSO states, this adjustment isn't going to change the overall view - that is, ENSO will be taking a back seat as a driving force this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I'd love a -NAO from now till April, but that's unlikely. I don't think there's much to be overly concerned about at this point in the game. Cool now doesn't do us much good. But a solid cool down mid-December, now that's another story altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I guess it just doesn't seem likely that a negative regime would last the winter if it took hold in mid/late November. Makes me wonder when it went from negative to positive last year. But yes, I guess anything is better than last year! The way Robert sounds, it's going to be the predominate set up this year. Gotta like that optimism... Here is the NAO for November of last year....care to guess what the rest of that winter looked like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Here is the NAO for November of last year....care to guess what the rest of that winter looked like? How strong is the correlation historically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 ...compared to now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 It's a complete reversal from last year where there were only a 2 or 3 short periods of weak neg. NAO states, since the summer we've only have a small handful of short, weak positive NAO states. We're headed straight back to neg. NAO territory once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 It's a complete reversal from last year where there were only a 2 or 3 short periods of weak neg. NAO states, since the summer we've only have a small handful of short, weak positive NAO states. We're headed straight back to neg. NAO territory once again. Yep, night and day. Here are the two images in a GIF to really see the difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 It's a complete reversal from last year where there were only a 2 or 3 short periods of weak neg. NAO states, since the summer we've only have a small handful of short, weak positive NAO states. We're headed straight back to neg. NAO territory once again. That's interesting; good info all. Is that a known correlation; how the NAO performs in the fall is a foregleam into the winter? If that's the case than perhaps we have a good winter ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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