mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Last year about this time,a lot of forecasts were for a great winter( snowy and cold ) for the east and south.we all know that was a big bust.then as week after week of above normal temps just kept coming.everyone started talking about the rubberband theory,and it had to snap to colder,and it never did.we just have to wait and see.based on the weather we have had about the last month or so,I think the majority of the southeast will have atleast 2 or 3 winter weather events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3monkeymom Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 On topic? ok.... Things don't look very good for November despite what some of the fringe is saying. The stratosphere is cold right now, that is another bad sign for the upcoming winter and the Euro Seasonals show a raging +AO all winter which fits that. I don't have any insight on the seasonal models, but I'm reading a lot of different opinions on whether or not the current cold stratosphere spells doom for winter lovers. Aren't there supposedly some signals in the Euro weeklies (like the projected Aleutian blocking) that could kick off the kind of strat warming over Asia that we would need to see to flip the AO toward the end of Nov/first of Dec? Frankly, I'm not going to worry too much about November anyway. Even if the whole month is a bust, it's not a month that typically gives us in the SE much chance of winter weather anyway. There's still plenty of time for things to change before we see much negative impact for DJF. On a totally unscientific note, I've noticed over the past several weeks that our 5-10 day forecasts down here on the Gulf Coast have wanted to show a sustained warm-up after each of the cool shots we've gotten so far. But not one of those week-long warm-ups has ever materialized. We'll have two, maybe three somewhat warmer days, then we've gone back to below- or slightly below-normal temps for four or five. Obviously I'm not talking about deep, highly anomalous cold or anything; I've just noticed that the medium- or long-range always wants to show a torch as opposed to what we actually end up experiencing. It makes me wonder if the models are performing reasonably well on specific short-range events but having a harder time catching onto the pattern as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Could get interesting around thanksgiving with most of the individual members agreeing on a nice cold trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 12z GFS looks interesting after Thanksgiving. I know... it's 15 days out but the NAO looks to be going back negative so we should at least have higher chances of troughing in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Almost time for the fantasy storms to start showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 12z Euro, Thanksgiving week, for those who have been following it, no surprise, still ugly... 192hrs 216hrs/850 Day10 240 H5 anom Seen a couple GGEM runs over the last few days with something similar with respect to slp off the Carolina coast, quicker though, day 8. Some GFS mems on board, growing confidence for a storm in the period, impacts unknown, cold should be lacking, but still could be a upper 30's/low 40's and RN type of deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Cold rain with storm heading toward jersey again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Cold rain with storm heading toward jersey again Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Is that storm crossing Fla. from the gulf,or forming off Fla and Carolinas?just wanting to know,because a storm in that location would only give rain to charlotte ,at best,on the western edge.I love wintry precip,but as dry as its been,I get excited about good rain chances! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Posted by WXeastern on Facebook... BTW, this is a great page to follow on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Posted by WXeastern on Facebook... BTW, this is a great page to follow on Facebook. Is this map supposed to be for snow potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Is this map supposed to be for snow potential? MS Paint reproduction of something, I like the wide swath spray-can coverage... Nice inland track considering we are 9-10 days out and signal is still very weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 WeatherNC - a couple of NE folks like the way things are shaping up at the end of GFS runs, they like how it's starting to evolve...what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 WeatherNC - a couple of NE folks like the way things are shaping up at the end of GFS runs, they like how it's starting to evolve...what do you think? Take it with a grain of salt. The GFS long range changes four times a day. No need to get that excited about that time frame. We are still in November. Although we have had some great snow in the mountains already so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 MS Paint reproduction of something, I like the wide swath spray-can coverage... Nice inland track considering we are 9-10 days out and signal is still very weak. Not knocking mark but the dude is a weenie. He doesnt seem to understand that things dont just change as soon as those indicies go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 The Euro is pretty cool looking temp wise after this front. And the time frame around Thanksgiving looks pretty chilly with rain possibly. I can remember some Thanksgivings here in the mountains were it would be 39 or 38 degrees with freaking rain coming down. Oh well. At least the pattern is favoring a cooler period than warmer. Opposite than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 MS Paint reproduction of something, I like the wide swath spray-can coverage... Nice inland track considering we are 9-10 days out and signal is still very weak. If it were me I would definitely do a off the coast track and the spraypaint lines much further north and probably a 50% decrease in coverage area...but that's just me. I don't think this storm will happen, haven't even seen a good fantasy solution yet (haven't looked at today's (11/11) models yet) Some are really grasping at straws with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 00z Euro is def. what you want to see for NC but the temps are not there at all. It brings a storm next Sunday into Monday with moisture being thrown from the coast that's mainly contained to only NC. Either way it would be some good rains for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I agree Jeremy. Not knocking mark but the dude is a weenie. He doesnt seem to understand that things dont just change as soon as those indicies go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 00z Euro is def. what you want to see for NC but the temps are not there at all. It brings a storm next Sunday into Monday with moisture being thrown from the coast that's mainly contained to only NC. Either way it would be some good rains for us It does try to suggest on WU snowfall map a departing shot of flurry/snow shower in mountains. But it does have some pretty good agreement from GFS just glancing at 500mb maps, so maybe we can all get some much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 12z GFS has a big cool down on the end of it's run...of course it's out in lala land but still good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I like how things seem to be shaping up for the winter. We just need to get the timing right and keep this blocking into December through February. Would love one of those coastal systems to come up when it's actually cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Euro experiences some deja vu basically it has a low coming from the coast on Thursday then practically the exact same setup on Sunday into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Euro experiences some deja vu basically it has a low coming from the coast on Thursday then practically the exact same setup on Sunday into Monday. That's what I'm talking about. Just have to keep this repeating every other week or so throughout winter. I know the patternis eventually going to change, but I hope it's not before we have the real cold here and get some nice snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Euro experiences some deja vu basically it has a low coming from the coast on Thursday then practically the exact same setup on Sunday into Monday. Thanksgiving Thursday? Or this Thursday. thanks and cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 EC looks incredibly warm across the plains at 240. Canada is warm but it doesnt matter as nearly 3/4ths of the country is at or above 0 at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 12z GFS has a big cool down on the end of it's run...of course it's out in lala land but still good to see. I like seeing that cad high, with blocking. Give me some of that when it counts down here, come Jan. But now it will feel like the season, with cold drizzle, if nothing else. I'm fine with day after day of cold drizzle in La La land. Late Nov. is the right time to see it. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 EC looks incredibly warm across the plains at 240. Canada is warm but it doesnt matter as nearly 3/4ths of the country is at or above 0 at 850. Yea Euro has nothing in the way of cold in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Thanksgiving Thursday? Or this Thursday. thanks and cheers! That would be this Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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