Spidyr2k Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 12z GFS Great lakes system around 138hr Another system around 264hr but that doesn't look right, something to watch... hr384 huge trough, 0c line all the way down to the gulf coast 18z GFS hr144, cold chasing moisture in the apps hr204, 1009 low over TX....again hr372 NE snow 985mb low off the coast of MA, not a nor'easter though (energy comes from Canada, phases over great lakes) but how that storm handles the energy will determine where that low bombs...kind of stupid to even talk like this so I'll stop, haha. Good news, active pattern for November...seeing a few shots of cold air with the 0c line coming into the SE and the NE/Great lakes cashing in in a few mini-storms is exactly what we want to see right now. But yes, NO fantasy storms as of yet in the LR, but overall pattern doesn't look too bad for 11/7. You know what, Jon? If you did a model synopsis like that every day, I'd read it every day. Nice of you to take the time to lay out the details without bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Trend is our friend: Goofy op tanks the NAO http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zlinegraphs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Why is it so quiet on here? Does anyone see any fantasy storms in the future? Never seen it this quite. There surely is something showing up for 300 hours from now or is it that bad the next couple of weeks? This is a good thing. Sanity...it's what makes the SE Forum the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 This is a good thing. Sanity...it's what makes the SE Forum the best. There was already a meltdown earlier this week. The calm before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Trend is our friend: Goofy op tanks the NAO http://raleighwx.ame...linegraphs.html It does look gooft but the rest on that model show the NAO going negative.After last year it would be great to see the NAO stay in the negative territory this whole winter.I know i'm probably dreaming but it stayed in the positive about the whole winter last year. Who's to say it can't do the oppoiste this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Yes, it's quiet here for now. But it's only November. And the pattern does look good. I think we could have an active winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Yes, it's quiet here for now. But it's only November. And the pattern does look good. I think we could have an active winter here. Here is the thing about that. We should go into this winter a little skeptical. Looking back at last year around this time period the same things were being said about how great winter was and how this pattern would hold up...well it didn't and it was a horrible winter. So it should be interesting to see. I'm hoping we can cash in early with the NAO going in the tank just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 You know what, Jon? If you did a model synopsis like that every day, I'd read it every day. Nice of you to take the time to lay out the details without bias. Thanks! You'll be hearing a lot from me in December when I'm out of school. I'm in pharmacy school so I've been MIA for the most of the last few months but plan to be very active once it matters. I'm very excited about the pattern that is setting up and I think the SE will cash in on some good storms, but we'll have to watch the great lakes and NE get the blunt of them until we get our chance. The models overall are showing a very active period (lots of energy developing off the west coast) but like I said, we don't have the patterns in place for the SE at this point but I'd imagine once everything is in place and the blocking is still there, we'll cash in, big. <---sounds really of me, but that's what I think! Also, during DJF months, we have some very active mets and forecasters or at least some great play by play model analysis by other members so don't worry, the disco will get very interesting soon...can't wait for the long nights of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Here is the thing about that. We should go into this winter a little skeptical. Looking back at last year around this time period the same things were being said about how great winter was and how this pattern would hold up...well it didn't and it was a horrible winter. So it should be interesting to see. I'm hoping we can cash in early with the NAO going in the tank just in case. It seems that the atmosphere flipped it's lid about mid February 2011 and stayed that way until approximately end of April-ish 2012. In hindsight, I'm not sure what we were looking at to give us a notion that last winter would be a good one. You make a good point - it would probably be better for our health and sanity to be a little skeptical. And there is a difference between skepticism and cynicism. The latter are just A holes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Here is the thing about that. We should go into this winter a little skeptical. Looking back at last year around this time period the same things were being said about how great winter was and how this pattern would hold up...well it didn't and it was a horrible winter. So it should be interesting to see. I'm hoping we can cash in early with the NAO going in the tank just in case. I think cautious optimism is the right word. It seems a lot of mets think this could be a good winter with the pattern shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 GFS gets cold at the end of it's run. Might get our first real fantasy blizzard in the next couple of runs of the GFS then we know watching season has really started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 It seems that the atmosphere flipped it's lid about mid February 2011 and stayed that way until approximately end of April-ish 2012. In hindsight, I'm not sure what we were looking at to give us a notion that last winter would be a good one. You make a good point - it would probably be better for our health and sanity to be a little skeptical. And there is a difference between skepticism and cynicism. The latter are just A holes True, it's just funny reading last years posts....guess who had the best forecast with real reasons behind it? Everyone's favorite Widreman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Euro Ensemble keeps wanting to take the southern route with the next trough that hits the west coast mid next week. It's taking that system east into Texas underneath building ridging in southern Canada...something to watch anyway for those looking for some rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I Hope but probably west of me. We hadt had rain since Oct 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Ràin would be more than a welcome sight imby. I'm ready to see something else fall out of the sky besides leaves. As November rolls along its funny how we all come back hanging around in anticipation that the nao will mystically lock into a negative phase over the next 90 days. Then by months end / thanksgiving, anticipation becomes anxiety because the models show positive ao /nao forecast as far as the eye can see. Then by the first or second week of December there will be a small camp of posters canceling winter. My own objective amateur opinion is that the nao will come through for us this winter and not be Mia for the entire period like we witnessed last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 True, it's just funny reading last years posts....guess who had the best forecast with real reasons behind it? Everyone's favorite Widreman. Yep - for the record, I've never had an issue with the big W. Contributions (albeit dry as a bone) of valid opinions and actual reasoning. I'm sure ole' W will join in soon enough. Even with the trail of tears left by W's prog last winter - he stuck by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 GFS gets cold at the end of it's run. Might get our first real fantasy blizzard in the next couple of runs of the GFS then we know watching season has really started. Why do I see more wind chill maps than actual 2m temp maps being posted from that site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Robert thinks rain wont make it to us as of right now,maybe that will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Why do I see more wind chill maps than actual 2m temp maps being posted from that site? Probably because they're lazy and just pick the very first one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Nice looking map for the later part of this month. Probably because they're lazy and just pick the very first one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Cold rain in the forecast for Thanksgiving. Probably means it will be sunny and 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Robert thinks rain wont make it to us as of right now,maybe that will change Yeah... Especially with most of the energy lifting north of the Southeast. I'm holding out for a few sprinkles for my viewing area around Columbus, GA, but it won't amount to much. If the associated low lifts any farther north, we won't see a drop east of Central Alabama/Eastern Tennessee/ the Apps.... The low next weekend looks a bit more promising (rain-wise), for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Yeah... Especially with most of the energy lifting north of the Southeast. I'm holding out for a few sprinkles for my viewing area around Columbus, GA, but it won't amount to much. If the associated low lifts any farther north, we won't see a drop east of Central Alabama/Eastern Tennessee/ the Apps.... The low next weekend looks a bit more promising (rain-wise), for now... We just need to get the blocking to hurry in place before the lows begin to track Right now they seem to be playing poke the bear and run, with each other. Once we get out of the driest month maybe they'll begin to dance with each other. I'm looking foward to the "march of the Gom lows" this winter. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 I stared at this map trying to convince myself this was for December 2011 as this looks like December 2011's map, unfortunately it's 2012.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Funny, Euro has another phasing low off the NE coast with a block to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Looks like the NAO and the AO want to tank again around Thanksgiving week. Something to keep an eye on as we go through the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 No need to waste cold in November. Wait until December onward when it matters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Actually since I sponsor it and help get it started I can pretty post what want. That information didnt come from his site. I called him to see if was going to rain as I have jobs that it effects. But glad you looking out for him im sure he appreciates it!! Um, no you can't. I don't care if you sponsor it or not, unless he says to us it's ok, do not. Period. As for this thread, I just had to delete a ton of posts. Enough is enough folks. Stop with the BS, stop with the arguing, the garbage, and stay on topic. Consider this a general warning to everyone. Timeouts/suspensions will be in order for those who do not stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 On topic? ok.... Things don't look very good for November despite what some of the fringe is saying. The stratosphere is cold right now, that is another bad sign for the upcoming winter and the Euro Seasonals show a raging +AO all winter which fits that. The PDO phase also sucks right now for those wanting a great winter. The bad news goes on and on, we do have strong signals saying this winter will suck. One positive I have seen is that we saw a nice uptick in Eurasian snowcover towards the end of October which some believe has a correlation to -AO/-NAO later in the year but that is far from a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The 00zz Euro kept an interesting look out of Canada @ 240. Edit, didnt mean 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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