WeatherNC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Congrats Elizabeth City! 18z gfs clown map from twisterdata has 0.5" lollipops here , bad timing though, Wednesday afternoon into evening. This would be the earliest in the season I have seen winter precip, think in 07 or 08, can't remember, saw dendrites twice in the same week, ~ Nov 13th-17th time frame. Those two were afternoon squall type sn showers with temps in the low 40's, windy. Just need these two parcels to hook up 6 hours earlier and maybe that cold core band would shift south, just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised to see some flake as far as RIC but that would be about it at the current time. We will see what tonight's Euro says. As usual in most of NC the cold will likely come just a bit too late. This is a waste of a good setup but we will see if we get another crack at it in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That pretty much sums it up. Nothing against you, but I hate seeing these 4 day outlooks posted all the time. They offer very little substance. Long range DJF, etc would be cool, but 4 days doesn't even count as mid/long range disco to me. We pretty much know that it will be 70+ across the mid-Atlantic and it will likely be cooler following...this happens in November. I'll get off my soapbox, carry on now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nothing against you, but I hate seeing these 4 day outlooks posted all the time. They offer very little substance. Long range DJF, etc would be cool, but 4 days doesn't even count as mid/long range disco to me. We pretty much know that it will be 70+ across the mid-Atlantic and it will likely be cooler following...this happens in November. I'll get off my soapbox, carry on now... DJF? I think your looking for the Winter Outlook thread. I created this for mid/long range storms...6-10+ days etc...like for Hurricane Sandy...the upcoming Nor-Easter...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 DJF? I think your looking for the Winter Outlook thread. I created this for mid/long range storms...6-10+ days etc...like for Hurricane Sandy...the upcoming Nor-Easter...etc. The nor'easter is <3 days out, should we take it that to the obs/disco? Lol at the GFS, H5 over the TN Valley and southern MA/northern SE is a mess between 60 and 72 hrs, big time gutter ball for folks south of VA, maybe some upslope with that vort coming down though, looks robust, as the first one begins to dampen off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 ^ Maybe we are much closer now. That temp map is for 6-10 day range by the way...not 4...somebody posting posts misinformed you. No 2013/14 thread yet come on guys! Wait till Christmas. Blacksburg mentions 20% snow/rain east of the mountains...but doubts moisture will reach the ground in their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 DJF? I think your looking for the Winter Outlook thread. I created this for mid/long range storms...6-10+ days etc...like for Hurricane Sandy...the upcoming Nor-Easter...etc. LOL I've been around since Easternuswx, you'd like I'd know what thread I'm in...my bad man for some reason I thought this was the winter outlook/long range thread... I think it was because of the disco of people saying winter cancel because the mid Atlantic is red on the 6-10 day map, but everyone was just joking. I've had a long weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL I've been around since Easternuswx, you'd like I'd know what thread I'm in...my bad man for some reason I thought this was the winter outlook/long range thread... I think it was because of the disco of people saying winter cancel because the mid Atlantic is red on the 6-10 day map, but everyone was just joking. I've had a long weekend. Yea South-East threads always get off topic. Can't say I am not one of them that causes it though. But I guess it's good to see less moderated forums in a way...compared to the craziness that goes on in the NE region. We have a good deal of freedom here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sooo.....wait a bit.... the South Pole doesn't get much snow? Yet it is covered with snow? So the fish go in the penguins, and out comes snow? I learn so much on this board, and lots of it is just pure crazy, lol. In the short range Goofy has been wanting to give me rain for a good while, and the 0z still tries, and throws in some maybe Ga flurries to boot, in the sky anyway, where the 850's live Think I'll water the growing things anyway, just in case. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sooo.....wait a bit.... the South Pole doesn't get much snow? Yet it is covered with snow? So the fish go in the penguins, and out comes snow? I learn so much on this board, and lots of it is just pure crazy, lol. In the short range Goofy has been wanting to give me rain for a good while, and the 0z still tries, and throws in some maybe Ga flurries to boot, in the sky anyway, where the 850's live Think I'll water the growing things anyway, just in case. T The snow at the south pole never melts really, so even though it only snows a little, over centuries and millennia, it builds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 DJF? I think your looking for the Winter Outlook thread. GB NM I created this for mid/long range storms...6-10+ days etc...like for Hurricane Sandy...the upcoming Nor-Easter...etc. Honestly I thimk everybody is tired of you posting all the time. You post maps that we all know about already. we all know the pattern. It must be a race to you to see how many posts you can total up. Even brick slowed his posting down. But you do what you want as I could careless but just look at others comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Honestly I thimk everybody is tired of you posting all the time. You post maps that we all know about already. we all know the pattern. It must be a race to you to see how many posts you can total up. Even brick slowed his posting down. But you do what you want as I could careless but just look at others comments. Can I bump this for you during "plowing season"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Honestly I thimk everybody is tired of you posting all the time. You post maps that we all know about already. we all know the pattern. It must be a race to you to see how many posts you can total up. Even brick slowed his posting down. But you do what you want as I could careless but just look at others comments. Let's not derail this thread into who posts what and when. I'm fine with Wilkesborodude posting as much as he wants. It keeps me from having to go to all these other sites to check out the latest maps: I can find all maps that I'm interested in right here. I come to this board to read weather info: I don't care who posts the info as long as it's good stuff, done in a respectful manner, and is on topic. Thus, powerstroke can keep informing me concerning JB, Robert, and plowing/landscaping info and Wilkesborodude can supply all the maps he wants, in my humble opinion. Carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The Euro continues to give far northeastern and southwestern NC some snow....likely little to no accumulations due to temps but hey they might see it fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sooo.....wait a bit.... the South Pole doesn't get much snow? Yet it is covered with snow? So the fish go in the penguins, and out comes snow? I learn so much on this board, and lots of it is just pure crazy, lol. In the short range Goofy has been wanting to give me rain for a good while, and the 0z still tries, and throws in some maybe Ga flurries to boot, in the sky anyway, where the 850's live Think I'll water the growing things anyway, just in case. T What? There are no fish and penguins at the south pole. What you see is the accumulation of ice over 800,000 years or more. The south pole is a dessert. There is over two miles of ice at the south pole and any water under that probably doesn't have much fish since the ice is mostly on bedrock and it would pulverize nearly anything under it. The penguins and fish near and on Antarctica are near the edges, nowhere near The south pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Can I bump this for you during "plowing season"? Definitely! You migjt want to look at the past as you will find I dont post much during lwing season. Too busy counting the money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Definitely! You migjt want to look at the past as you will find I dont post much during lwing season. Too busy counting the money POWERSTROKE, do you ever plow in the N.Va/DC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just wish it was January and February with the current pattern. Now watch January and February be colder than normal but with no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thread has turned into a disaster....so 12z GFS shows some snow for the mountains of NC...probably not much but might be pretty to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thread has turned into a disaster....so 12z GFS shows some snow for the mountains of NC...probably not much but might be pretty to see. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thread has turned into a disaster....so 12z GFS shows some snow for the mountains of NC...probably not much but might be pretty to see. Possibly the high elevations of the Smokys, too. There's still a bit of snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12Z Euro looks quite cold. Hard to say if it is overdoing that a bit. I am no ruling out flakes for northeastern NC but more so from RIC in VA north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Seeing the Euro shift east and the GFS shift west just goes to show that both models have there tendencies, and taking the average between the two is better than just sticking with the Euro. I am sure the MA folks are really bummed and the Philly folks are getting there measuring sticks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thread has turned into a disaster....so 12z GFS shows some snow for the mountains of NC...probably not much but might be pretty to see. Well in all fairness it is the first week of November AND when you have a cold spell for a bit it will warm up after before it cools down again. Give it time, the cold will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z Teleconnection tendencies point toward the NAO going negative again heading into the middle of next week. The flip to positive after this Noreaster blows by appears to be short term. Hopefully the longwave trough that develops out west this weekend will roll on east and bring some rain early next week when it does. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zlinegraphs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We need rain for sure. Maybe next week but looks like most will be on west side of mtns according to some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Honestly I thimk everybody is tired of you posting all the time. You post maps that we all know about already. we all know the pattern. It must be a race to you to see how many posts you can total up. Even brick slowed his posting down. But you do what you want as I could careless but just look at others comments. You like dead forums? I started posting here in masses when the forums were running very slow. I was just trying to bring it back to life, I could care less if it was top notch info. People can go to Robert's site for top notch info. I am just trying to help start threads and discussions well in advance of the storm. The quality of the discussion is up to the community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Blacksburg is going 1-3 inches for western slopes...no accumulation 20% snow for northern foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC Tuesday night through Thursday Snow levels should fall to around 3500-4000 feet. There isn/T much low level cold air...and while the valleys could see a brief period of snow around sunrise...this should be a high elevation event. In fact...snow levels should rise to near 5000 feet Wednesday afternoon as the upper forcing weakens. Using a 10-1 snowfall ratio I get some 2 to 3 inch totals at or above 4000 feet Tuesday night...with another inch or so on Wednesday with the high elevation snow spreading across the northern mountains these totals are not high enough for a Winter Storm Watch...but I will add mention of accumulating snowfall to the severe weather potential statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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