Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion I

[WilkesboroDude]

With West Virginia possibly getting some snow/rain showers this weekend,I think it is time to start looking out in the future for our area.

Sunday

[WilkesboroDude]

Severe weather on que out west...probably not so much for the Carolinas.

Courtesy of Nic Roberson

[WilkesboroDude]

Some severe weather possible to our west in the days to come...any noteworthy cold/snow events should hold off for a few weeks in the US.

[LithiaWx]

Edit : Here is the post

Obviously it is early....some of the similar ENSO analogs have a tendency to burst into a more robust warm phase in early and mid October so I will hold my breath until then...So many want to be first...not me!

[WilkesboroDude]

Yea I see October getting progressively warmer perhaps for the rest of the month.

[metalicwx366]

Yea I see October getting progressively warmer perhaps for the rest of the month.

Winter Cancel! Bring on the 2013 hurricane season. Another boring month. Invest 98l is something to watch I guess.

[WilkesboroDude]

Winter Cancel! Bring on the 2013 hurricane season. Another boring month. Invest 98l is something to watch I guess.

October is not a winter month silly. And I am not sure what a warm October means for winter either.

You probably almost made somebody start the 2013/2014 Winter Outlook thread with that!

[valkhorn]

I wouldn't say that it'll be that warm. It looks like it'll just follow average to slightly above average temps for a little while but not too long. We've been in a below average/above precip pattern for a couple of weeks so it'll balance itself out. Summer's long gone.

Plus, when the pendulum swings back around again it'll be colder.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

October is not a winter month silly. And I am not sure what a warm October means for winter either.

You probably almost made somebody start the 2013/2014 Winter Outlook thread with that!

I did some research a couple of years back and found that October has a tendency to be inversely proportional to winter with regards to overall temperature.

[metalicwx366]

I did some research a couple of years back and found that October has a tendency to be inversely proportional to winter with regards to overall temperature.

Winter uncancel! Last year had Snowtober and it was a warm winter.

[BIG FROSTY]

Rest of Oct. will be warmer but I doubt we see much above norm temps? Next real cold shot probably 1st or 2nd week of Nov.

[griteater]

Obviously it is early....some of the similar ENSO analogs have a tendency to burst into a more robust warm phase in early and mid October so I will hold my breath until then...So many want to be first...not me!

Yea I see October getting progressively warmer perhaps for the rest of the month.

I'm pretty sure that Mr. B is referring to El Nino, and the notion that some prior Ninos have "burst into a more robust warm phase in early and mid Oct" (i.e. increasing sea surface temps in the Nino region)....and not referring to actual October surface temperatures in the southeast.

[FallsLake]

This is just one model run and it's 12 day out, but this would probably be the first frost / freeze for many of us. Lets hope. 12z GFS at day 12:

[LithiaWx]

I'm pretty sure that Mr. B is referring to El Nino, and the notion that some prior Ninos have "burst into a more robust warm phase in early and mid Oct" (i.e. increasing sea surface temps in the Nino region)....and not referring to actual October surface temperatures in the southeast.

My bad, I believe you are correct.

The long range GFS looked nice and cold at 12Z.

[metalicwx366]

This is just one model run and it's 12 day out, but this would probably be the first frost / freeze for many of us. Lets hope. 12z GFS at day 12:

Its only 312 hours away.Better than 384!

[FallsLake]

The below image is the 0z GFS at 384 hours; so this is really just for fun. I was thinking if this setup was able to happen a couple of months from now, and it was whitin seven days, we would have something to track.

[valkhorn]

This looks more reasonable. This is at 189h

This is more in line with climatology but that is one negatively tilted storm. Look at the 10Cs headed to almost the Hudson Bay.

This would give the Smokys their first snow if it happened - which I think will be possible between 10/18 and 10/28.

Of course I'm talking above 5500', but still.

[Marion_NC_WX]

GFS has been very persistant in developing a sharp trough next week and possible Southern Stream Cyclogenesis next Thursday/Friday.

[metalicwx366]

GFS has been very persistant in developing a sharp trough next week and possible Southern Stream Cyclogenesis next Thursday/Friday.

Yeah just saw that. Hope that comes to fruition.

[valkhorn]

It still looks possible that the high elevations could see their first snowfall around next Saturday. If there's a good chance I'll head to Mt. Leconte on Saturday to take a look. The forecast will be closer in focus by Wednesday but it really looks like a chance (albeit small) of it happening with 850C temps at or below freezing with NW flow and upslope orographic precip popping out. It's that time of the year. If 6000' and above doesn't see snow by mid November it's very unusual.

[WilkesboroDude]

It still looks possible that the high elevations could see their first snowfall around next Saturday. If there's a good chance I'll head to Mt. Leconte on Saturday to take a look. The forecast will be closer in focus by Wednesday but it really looks like a chance (albeit small) of it happening with 850C temps at or below freezing with NW flow and upslope orographic precip popping out. It's that time of the year. If 6000' and above doesn't see snow by mid November it's very unusual.

Chance is there...if they don't see it I am sure November will bring it. Some of the signals are strong for a storm...likely somewhat wintery in November for parts of the country IMO.

[valkhorn]

Chance is there...if they don't see it I am sure November will bring it. Some of the signals are strong for a storm...likely somewhat wintery in November for parts of the country IMO.

The resolution isn't good enough for a micro climate like Mt Leconte or your typical 6000 ft plus mountain in this area. Leconte, Clingmans, and Guyot can differ widely, too. Leconte was two degrees off from seeing snow I believe last week. If there's a chance and it's below freezing it will snow up there. Chances can be 20% in the valley and yet it will always rain up there.

I know I'm nitpicking but I've been up there many times when it was lie walking into Canada. A thirty degree F temp drop due to elevation is sometimes the norm. I hiked up there last April. At 3400 ft it was clear and 35. At the top it was an inch of snow and 12F. I've also seen it go from 35F to 5F along the trails. It's remarkable.

[WilkesboroDude]

The resolution isn't good enough for a micro climate like Mt Leconte or your typical 6000 ft plus mountain in this area. Leconte, Clingmans, and Guyot can differ widely, too. Leconte was two degrees off from seeing snow I believe last week. If there's a chance and it's below freezing it will snow up there. Chances can be 20% in the valley and yet it will always rain up there.

I know I'm nitpicking but I've been up there many times when it was lie walking into Canada. A thirty degree F temp drop due to elevation is sometimes the norm. I hiked up there last April. At 3400 ft it was clear and 35. At the top it was an inch of snow and 12F. I've also seen it go from 35F to 5F along the trails. It's remarkable.

Right, that map will change another 30 times anyway, just watching it for any spill over into western NC in general high elevations in the coming days.

I believe there was one extreme peak in western NC that managed to hit freezing last weekend...forgot which place...but NWS Blacksburg said at 9,000ft it would still not support snow...so I believe it was just a brief non-event freezing rain with warm surfaces.

There was some good snow showers at Snowshoe, West Virginia last weekend though!

EDIT

I went back and looked and it was Beach Mountain...Grandfather missed it by a few tenths of a degree of freezing.

Also found this back in that October Observation thread.

NWS Blacksburg

It is also worth noting...that the freezing level this morning is above 9000 feet. Despite it being chilly and thoughts of snow falling crosses your mind...temperatures will remain warm enough to keep all precipitation as liquid.

[griteater]

The resolution isn't good enough for a micro climate like Mt Leconte or your typical 6000 ft plus mountain in this area. Leconte, Clingmans, and Guyot can differ widely, too. Leconte was two degrees off from seeing snow I believe last week. If there's a chance and it's below freezing it will snow up there. Chances can be 20% in the valley and yet it will always rain up there.

I have read that there are places high up in the Smokies that get as much precipitation as anywhere in the United States...with the only other similar locale precip-wise being some areas in coastal Oregon.

[valkhorn]

I have read that there are places high up in the Smokies that get as much precipitation as anywhere in the United States...with the only other similar locale precip-wise being some areas in coastal Oregon.

That's true. Clingman's Dome and Leconte both get over 80" of rain per year. They also can average 80"+ of snow per year. The climate at the highest elevations is closer to that of New Hampshire, even though Mt. Washington does have it beat by a long shot. If you put Mitchell or Clingman's or Leconte in New Hampshire, it would beat Mount Washington, though. Leconte seems to get more snow than Clingman's though because it fares better during NW Flow snow events.

Right, that map will change another 30 times anyway, just watching it for any spill over into western NC in general high elevations in the coming days.

I believe there was one extreme peak in western NC that managed to hit freezing last weekend...forgot which place...but NWS Blacksburg said at 9,000ft it would still not support snow...so I believe it was just a brief non-event freezing rain with warm surfaces.

There was some good snow showers at Snowshoe, West Virginia last weekend though!

EDIT

I went back and looked and it was Beach Mountain...Grandfather missed it by a few tenths of a degree of freezing.

Also found this back in that October Observation thread.

NWS Blacksburg

It is also worth noting...that the freezing level this morning is above 9000 feet. Despite it being chilly and thoughts of snow falling crosses your mind...temperatures will remain warm enough to keep all precipitation as liquid.

Leconte is a bit colder than Beech Mountain and Grandfather Mountain. It's been down to 25 up there in the past few days:

http://www.srh.noaa....p?pil=mrxrtpmrx

Odds for this Saturday are still in the air but it'll be within the next 1-3 weeks I'm sure.

[nchighcountrywx]

A good set of tools is contained here to help everyone understand the new Dual Pol Doppler Radar Products:

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/dualpol/outreach/

Good reading and good presentations!

[WilkesboroDude]

Leconte is a bit colder than Beech Mountain and Grandfather Mountain. It's been down to 25 up there in the past few days:

http://www.srh.noaa....p?pil=mrxrtpmrx

Odds for this Saturday are still in the air but it'll be within the next 1-3 weeks I'm sure.

Yea I am sure too that places like that will be seeing snow before Thanksgiving.

GFS run this morning...snow chances come to Colorado...then moves east into the Appalachians...

[valkhorn]

Yea I am sure too that places like that will be seeing snow before Thanksgiving.

GFS run this morning...snow chances come to Colorado...then moves east into the Appalachians...

The setup to look for is a good post frontal NW flow with just enough moisture. Rarely at this time of year will the precip change to snow during frontal passage - but it can happen.

By the way, there is some work being done to understand the microclimates of the mountains a bit better - and new weather stations have popped up in new locations (most of the ones in the Smokys are less than 20 years old so there are no real long term observations). Forecasting in the valleys is easy compared to anything in higher elevations.

[WilkesboroDude]

The setup to look for is a good post frontal NW flow with just enough moisture. Rarely at this time of year will the precip change to snow during frontal passage - but it can happen.

By the way, there is some work being done to understand the microclimates of the mountains a bit better - and new weather stations have popped up in new locations (most of the ones in the Smokys are less than 20 years old so there are no real long term observations). Forecasting in the valleys is easy compared to anything in higher elevations.

Yea I have been hearing about these studies going on here in western NC to better understand these microclimates.

Most Rainfall in Smoky Mountains Comes As Mist

The shroud that envelopes the Great Smoky Mountains isn't actually smoke, it's a mist of water droplets that provides significant amounts of water to the area. Scientists didn't understand how significant a source of water this "light rainfall" was until a recent survey was conducted in the area.

The results suggest the area may be more susceptible to climate change than thought; as temperatures rise, more of the fine droplets from light rain will evaporate in the air and fail to reach the ground. Lower elevations will have to contend with not only higher temperatures, but less cloud cover, Barros said.

http://news.yahoo.co...-200553200.html

[WilkesboroDude]