El Niño Watch Called Off by NOAA

[Carvers Gap]

Holy cow. Ella Nino? I dated her. She was hot sometimes and cold other times.

My problem is that she wants to be in charge all the time, likes a lot of attention, and is generally unpredictable. When she hits an extreme mood, she's high maintenance. Can't live with her, can't live without her. El Señor, her father, is not to be messed with.

[okie333]

This is crazy - looks like an El Nino in the western basin, and La Nina in the eastern basin

VERY good thing as long as that warm bubble near 90W doesn't grow too big. West-based Niños and east-based Niñas are both good for the Central/Eastern US... so having both at the same time should be even better!

[GaWx]

Well, with little or no, chance for a record tonight, we need something! Nice work there, Dr. Larry. T

Tony/all,

Based strictly on the weeklies (NOT the ONI table, itself, which has been out of whack per NOAA, themselves), which have JJA, JAS, and ASO all at ~+0.5, I'm going with about a 40% chance as of now that there will be an official weak El Nino ONIwise. In other words, I'm going with a 40% chance that SON and OND (based strictly on the weeklies) will also be +0.5+ because five trimonths in a row must be +0.5+ to make it an official Nino based on ONI. If 3.4 continues warming steadily for the next week or so, those chances will increase. If it stops warming soon and doesn't resume fairly quickly, those chances will drop.

Looking at today's five day averaged 3.4 SST anom. map, it warmed a good bit (~.06 C) since just yesterday's map. It appears that it will very likely warm even further over the next couple of days at least. Therefore, I'm now pretty confident that next Monday's # (for the week centered on 10/31) will be at least +0.6 C (vs. the prior weekly of +0.5) as it may even reach +0.7 to +0.8 C.

What would be needed to get SON's weeklies to average +0.5? November's weeklies would need to average ~+0.75 C. Considering the recent rather sig. rises, that would seemingly be doable as of now. Now, let's say that Nov.'s weeklies do average +0.75. What would be needed in Dec. to get OND's weeklies to average +0.5? Only an avg. of ~+0.35.

Bottom line: warming over the next 3 weeks or so, including the 10/31 weekly, will be very crucial for the weak Nino's chances. Getting a weak Nino isn't as far-fetched as some here are making it out to be.

Looking at the SOI per my interpretation of the Euro, it does look to finally drop to fairly solid negatives for 11/5-7 with the lowest being on 11/6, likely in the -20's. Afterward, it looks to rise back up.

[GaWx]

Folks,

Today's 5 day averaged maps show a second day in a row of impressive warming in Nino 3.4. The chance for a return of El Nino and official ONI based El Nino based on weeklies continues to increase as this warming continues. More details later.

[GaWx]

Folks,

Today's 5 day averaged maps show a second day in a row of impressive warming in Nino 3.4. The chance for a return of El Nino and official ONI based El Nino based on weeklies continues to increase as this warming continues. More details later.

Here are two maps (5 day SST anom. averages) that clearly ilustrate how much Nino 3.4 (which is bounded by 120W, 170 W, 5N and 5S) has warmed during just ten days of maps (focus on the "anomalies" portion of the maps). Interestingly enough, the warming has been occurring without the aid of significant westerly surface wind anomalies. Note there are only some smallish westerly wind anomaly arrows in western 3.4 and virtually none in eastern 3.4 on the 10/21 map; and only some small westerly anomalies near 140W and virtually none elsewhere in 3.4 on the 10/31 map:

10/17-21:

10/27-31: (that is a +1.0 C anomaly area near 160W that has just appeared with this map...first time +1.0 has appeared in Nino 3.4 in weeks; best warming has been from 140W to 170W; I think a rise from +0.5 this past Monday to +0.7 and maybe up to +0.8 is becoming likely for next Monday's weekly 3.4 anomaly)

[jburns]

My problem is that she wants to be in charge all the time, likes a lot of attention, and is generally unpredictable. When she hits an extreme mood, she's high maintenance. Can't live with her, can't live without her. El Señor, her father, is not to be messed with.

Verdad, pero el gran sexo lo hace todo de mérito.

[dsaur]

Folks,

Today's 5 day averaged maps show a second day in a row of impressive warming in Nino 3.4. The chance for a return of El Nino and official ONI based El Nino based on weeklies continues to increase as this warming continues. More details later.

I'll take a 40% percent chance of winter enhancement any time, and I trust you will bump up that percentage by late next week. Realistically, I know the chances of a winter like the last one, are like any flip of the coin, but a 40% chance of having a better chance of a good winter, seems like good odds Keep up the good work, Larry, and be sure to continue the good news, if you please Tony

[WilkesboroDude]

"The previous El Niño watch has been discontinued as the chance of El Niño has decreased," the Climate Prediction Center said Thursday in its monthly report. The CPC is part of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

While the chances of El Niño are low, the CPC said the tropical ocean and atmosphere may still resemble a weak El Niño at times, with sea surface temperatures above average.

"While the development of El Niño, or even La Niña, cannot be ruled out during the next few months, ... neutral is now favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13," it said.

[GaWx]

^{November is a very crucial month for ENSO. Two weeks ago I was giving an El Nino a 40% chance due to Nino 3.4 having then just warmed from +0.1 to +0.5 in two weeks time. However, Nino 3.4 subsequently cooled back from +0.5 to +0.4 followed by a 2nd week of +0.4 (last week). As a result, I had lowered the Nino odds down to only 15% with its chances hanging by a thread. However, almost out of nowhere, Nino 3.4 has warmed substantially for this week to this point vs. last week.}

Though there's still three more days of maps to see this calendar week, today's substantially warmer map is increasing my confidence that next Monday's very crucial 3.4 anomaly will show a significant rise from the prior number of +0.4.

I am thinking that barring a sudden cooldown over the next three days that this coming Monday's 3.4 anomaly will be at least +0.7! It may even warm to +0.8! I've raised the Nino chances back up to 30%. IF this warming holds for a few days, I'll be raising it a good bit more to maybe near 50%.

Suggestion: change the title from "called off" to "still being watched"

^{http://www.americanw...60#entry1867260}

[WXinCanton]

Thanks for the update Larry!! Seems really odd that the tick up came out of no where

[griteater]

Interesting take from Paul Roundy on the winter Nino - http://blog.timesunion.com/weather/did-el-nino-die/2662/

"One of the leading forcing terms for changes in the state of El Niño is the Madden Julian oscillation, an eastward-moving region of organized thunderstorms and winds. the MJO produces alternating westerly and easterly wind signals over the Pacific Ocean. When El Niño itself has not yet fully coupled to atmospheric circulations (like right now), it is highly sensitive to forcing from the MJO, and the MJO in the right background conditions can change or amplify ENSO’s phase. Presently the western Pacific MJO is in its easterly phase. This phase is frequently followed by reduction of central Pacific sea surface temperatures. The westerly wind phase is likely to move over the Pacific during late November and early December. In consequence, I anticipate that the sea surface temperature pattern is likely to become less like El Niño into early December, followed by potential for dramatic sea surface temperature increases by late December or early January. Thus, although there is no guarantee of El Niño development across this season, I think it is a mistake to write it off. At least moderately strong El Niño conditions remain possible during January and February."

[GaWx]

Thanks for the update Larry!! Seems really odd that the tick up came out of no where

You're welcome. I saw no prediction of anything close to that level of warming.

Tomorrow morning's weekly Nino 3.4 update is about the most anticipated weekly for me since I've been following them (almost 10 years). The one released this past Monday was a mere +0.4. At that time, the chances for El Nino were getting ready to go onto life support as we were heading into the crucial month of Nov. However, almost out of the blue, OISST satellite loops of SST anomalies indicated VERY strong warming started one week ago. The amount of warming in 3.4 for just one week's time may turn out to be close to a record (going back over 20 years) if these satellite loops are accurately reflecting what NOAA uses. Even if not near a record, the amount of warming should turn out to be impressive.

Tomorrow's # is the average of the prior calendar week. At a minimum assuming the OISST loop isn't out of whack, I'm now expecting +0.8 (vs. thinking a min. of +0.7 two days back). However, a +1.0 wouldn't surprise me, especially based on some numbers I got complements of Stormvista.

This is sort of the equivalent of being down in the 9th and coming back to win.

[GaWx]

Folks,

I was just told by Michelle at NOAA that the OISST data (which is used by StormVista for their own updates) had a "bug" in it. She told me that they reran the data and put out this week's update based on that. There were initially asterisks instead of numbers for the SST anom.'s. They did that because of their immediate suspicion that the OISST data was wrong. The numbers didn't replace the asterisks until ~9 AM. I've never seen anything like this before and I've been following these weeklies for nearly 10 years. I'm going to call her again later to see if she'll give me more details.

No, I'm not making this up!!

Go here (main ENSO thread) for more details:

http://www.americanw...80#entry1871482

[dsaur]

Folks,

I was just told by Michelle at NOAA that the OISST data (which is used by StormVista for their own updates) had a "bug" in it. She told me that they reran the data and put out this week's update based on that. There were initially asterisks instead of numbers for the SST anom.'s. They did that because of their immediate suspicion that the OISST data was wrong. The numbers didn't replace the asterisks until ~9 AM. I've never seen anything like this before and I've been following these weeklies for nearly 10 years. I'm going to call her again later to see if she'll give me more details.

No, I'm not making this up!!

Go here (main ENSO thread) for more details:

http://www.americanw...80#entry1871482

I have great hopes, Larry! I'm convinced you've gotten engaged, and off the ice cream Last winter I was sure there was a bug in the works, but in the end, all was lost. Let's hope this bug is real, and the weak Nino LIVES!! T

[GaWx]

I have great hopes, Larry! I'm convinced you've gotten engaged, and off the ice cream Last winter I was sure there was a bug in the works, but in the end, all was lost. Let's hope this bug is real, and the weak Nino LIVES!! T

Tony, lol! Actually, it is the reverse. If the bug is real, it would mean that that very impressive OISST based warming is fake. So, you'd better hope the bug is fake rather than the OISST warming.

[dsaur]

Tony, lol! Actually, it is the reverse. If the bug is real, it would mean that that very impressive OISST based warming is fake. So, you'd better hope the bug is fake rather than the OISST warming.

Yeah, I read the ENSO thread and found that out. I thought the bug was in this mornings run, that it was going back cold. Now I see it might make the chances go down to nada again due to fake warm toasties over the past runs

And after I congratulated you on being off the ice cream, lol.

Oh, well, you knew the unusual sudden rewarming was too good to be true...but maybe it is at least half true, which still gives us hope.

I'd set the Moles to work on it, but they are land creatures, and the Pac. is so very far away. If we get a good Cad. and a gulf low, maybe, for Ga., but working on the ENSO, not so much

I know you think the window is closing, but unusual winters, have unusual events. Maybe a late w/n is usual in an unusual winter. T

[GaWx]

Folks,

Today's "AVHRR" map is clearly cooler in 3.4. This is all telling me that the major warmth seen here last week is becoming more and more irrelevant whether real or not. Therefore, the Nino chances are now on death's doorstep. They are now in the intensive care unit in guarded condition. The good doctor may very well be making an important pronouncement anytime now.

This, in itself, is not good news for our winter prospects. It can still be a cold and/or snowy one, of course, especially if we have good blocking. However, this, alone, is going to make it tougher than would otherwise have been the case if we were to have had a weak Nino as per analogs.

[Wow]

In one year, we're going from this:

...to this:

We'll be fine wrt to the ENSO state.

[GaWx]

In one year, we're going from this:...to this:

We'll be fine wrt to the ENSO state.

Don't get me wrong. It definitely is looking up compared to how it looked last year at this time. Neutral positive ENSO is clearly better than the Nina of a year ago. Also, the PDO is currently far less negative than it was a year ago. A really good winter still can't even be ruled out, especially if we get really good and consistent blocking. It is just that a weak Nino would have helped the chances that much more as per analogs spread out over a 130 year period. If last year's Pacific was an F or low D, we're probably near a C now and have a shot at a B this winter if the PDO goes positive. A weak Nino and +PDO would have been an A from my perspective. Weak Nino and -PDO woud have been a B.

[Wow]

Don't get me wrong. It definitely is looking up compared to how it looked last year at this time. Neutral positive ENSO is clearly better than the Nina of a year ago. Also, the PDO is currently far less negative than it was a year ago. A really good winter still can't even be ruled out, especially if we get really good and consistent blocking. It is just that a weak Nino would have helped the chances that much more as per analogs spread out over a 130 year period. If last year's Pacific was an F or low D, we're probably near a C now and have a shot at a B this winter if the PDO goes positive. A weak Nino and +PDO would have been an A from my perspective. Weak Nino and -PDO woud have been a B.

We weren't going to move much from where we are now regardless. I have real issues w/ analogs in general mainly when it comes down to classifying "weak El Nino" from "neutral+" to "neutral-", etc. How do the analogs line up if we shift the demarcation between weak El Nino and neutral+ by 0.1C? or 0.2C? How do the analogs stack up if we compare late Nov ENSO 3.4 region plus/minus 0.2C? or plus/minus 0.5C? or with a weakening -QBO?

To me, generating analogs based on any sort of parameter is like forecasting events via the Bible Code. You can create an outcome of your desire all based on how you define your parameter.

[GaWx]

We weren't going to move much from where we are now regardless. I have real issues w/ analogs in general mainly when it comes down to classifying "weak El Nino" from "neutral+" to "neutral-", etc. How do the analogs line up if we shift the demarcation between weak El Nino and neutral+ by 0.1C? or 0.2C? How do the analogs stack up if we compare late Nov ENSO 3.4 region plus/minus 0.2C? or plus/minus 0.5C? or with a weakening -QBO?

To me, generating analogs based on any sort of parameter is like forecasting events via the Bible Code. You can create an outcome of your desire all based on how you define your parameter.

1) If the strong warming seen on the SST anom. loop last week had not been false (due to a bug..I'm still tying to find out more about this) and a good portion of it had held, ENSO 3.4 definitely would have had a shot at looking quite a bit better than the current slightly positive slant. That in itself would have been a significant move.

2) One has to set up some kind of demarcation in order to be able to classify instead of coming up with something kind of muddy. That helps statisticians come up with concrete stats that could be used for guidelines. Seven of the coldest 11 winters for Atlanta had an ENSO within the weak Nino category! That's saying a lot! Please understand that the average weak Nino has had a trimonthly max slightly above 0.8 as opposed to near +0.5. I believe that you're thinking about the +0.5 as the demarcation when it is more like +0.8. You're pretty much looking at a min. max. of +0.7 in order to get a weak Nino. So far this time, we've had a max of +0.5 and that may end up being the max the way it is now going now. The last three months of weeklies have averaged only ~+0.4. That is 0.4 lower than the average weak Nino max. There is a nontrivial difference between +0.4 and +0.8 or even 0.5 and 0.8.

3) Would something that just misses the weak Nino category have as good a shot of being extreme assuming a +PDO and -NAO/-AO as that of an actual weak Nino? I'd say not as good , but it would have a decent shot, neverthless, and better than a lower end neutral positive. 1935-6 is the best example for that. Then again, the neutral positive category has not had nearly the number of really cold winters as the weak Nino cat has had. I would think that that would count for something.

[Wow]

Alright, so how many of Atlanta's coldest winters occured with either a neutral+ or "weak" Nino? That is, between 0C and +1C. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/?n=tampabayelninopage

[GaWx]

Alright, so how many of Atlanta's coldest winters occured with either a neutral+ or "weak" Nino? That is, between 0C and +1C. http://www.srh.noaa....pabayelninopage

8 of the 11 coldest. One neutral+ and seven weak Nino. The neutral+, 1935-6, was more of a higher end neutral+ rather than lower end. Other three were neutral-, weak Nina, and strong Nino (that was 2009-10). So, even I would say that there's probably a max from high end neutral+ to borderline weak/moderate. (A couple of the weak Ninos were borderline moderate.) Are you happy now lol? Regardless, these 8 cold winters are centered around a trimonthly max of ~+0.8 C as opposed to +0.5 C. So, I still say that a +0.8/weak Nino type max is more favorable than, say, a +0.5/high end neutral+ for a very cold winter although a +0.5 is pretty good.

[Wow]

Is that over the DJF period? Were they mostly west-based El Nino's? What if you look at the top 15? or 20?

How many 0 to +1 ENSO's had the top 10 coldest Decembers? or January? or February?

Had it been 5 or 6 of 11 winters, how confident would you be?

The point to all of this is, you can make a plausible case for most outcomes if you set the parameters to your liking. I think the difference between 0.4 and 0.8, as you mention is not going to make the difference between an average warm and avg cold winter. They can certainly make differences in numerical analog comparisons (assuming SST data is accurate across the 100 year time span of data collection), but that doesn't mean it's the true cause of a warm or a cold winter.

Analogs are fun but can be a misleading correlation.

[GaWx]

Is that over the DJF period? Were they mostly west-based El Nino's? What if you look at the top 15? or 20?

How many 0 to +1 ENSO's had the top 10 coldest Decembers? or January? or February?

Had it been 5 or 6 of 11 winters, how confident would you be?

The point to all of this is, you can make a plausible case for most outcomes if you set the parameters to your liking. I think the difference between 0.4 and 0.8, as you mention is not going to make the difference between an average warm and avg cold winter. They can certainly make differences in numerical analog comparisons (assuming SST data is accurate across the 100 year time span of data collection), but that doesn't mean it's the true cause of a warm or a cold winter.

Analogs are fun but can be a misleading correlation.

I look at the use of analogs as one of the tools that is available for seasonal forecasting. I think it is a very useful tool and of more value than just entertainment, but it is a tool as opposed to a crystal ball. So, the forecaster needs to know that tool's limits. A way around that is to use the analogs to establish probabilities of various outcomes as opposed to just using them to make an absolute/specific forecast. So, in that light, I don't see anything wrong with, say, saying that a weak Nino, especially one that follows a Nina, offers the highest probabilities (notice that I didn't say anything close to certainty..I didn't even say it was likely) of a really cold SE US winter of any one ENSO phase and that neutral + (especially high end) as well as moderate El Nino (especially low end) might each be about tied for second.

[calculus1]

GaWx and Wow gettin' all mathematical up in here!

Enjoying the discussion, gentlemen. A respectful debate with actual data, well-phrased sentences, and thought-provoking questions for the other side.

See, board members, this is how it is done! It is possible to disagree with someone and to present your alternate view without resorting to petty name-calling and childish insults lacking any substance.

Thanks for raising the bar with your quality contributions, gentlemen.

[HKY_WX]

I said in this thread i would do a winter forecast, but work has delayed it lol. HOping to have it out this week since i'll have some time. better late than never.

[Wow]

I look at the use of analogs as one of the tools that is available for seasonal forecasting. I think it is a very useful tool and of more value than just entertainment, but it is a tool as opposed to a crystal ball. So, the forecaster needs to know that tool's limits. A way around that is to use the analogs to establish probabilities of various outcomes as opposed to just using them to make an absolute/specific forecast. So, in that light, I don't see anything wrong with, say, saying that a weak Nino, especially one that follows a Nina, offers the highest probabilities (notice that I didn't say anything close to certainty..I didn't even say it was likely) of a really cold SE US winter of any one ENSO phase and that neutral + (especially high end) as well as moderate El Nino (especially low end) might each be about tied for second.

I can't disagree on the notion that analogs are a tool, yet its usefulness is entirely determinable on the skill of the forecaster. As you say, they must know its limits.

And I can certainly agree, based solely on ENSO analogs and the determined thresholds of "weak" El Nino and neutral+ that the SE has a better probability to be less cold than more cold compared to years with a classified "weak" El Nino signal. I don't think it says much compared to where we were but that's just my opinion on that matter.

Speaking of the Nino, just checking out the SOI, which is a pretty good leading indicator of ENSO activity, is on the rise. Current 30 avg is 5.7. Daily # is 15.4

[GaWx]

I can't disagree on the notion that analogs are a tool, yet its usefulness is entirely determinable on the skill of the forecaster. As you say, they must know its limits.

And I can certainly agree, based solely on ENSO analogs and the determined thresholds of "weak" El Nino and neutral+ that the SE has a better probability to be less cold than more cold compared to years with a classified "weak" El Nino signal. I don't think it says much compared to where we were but that's just my opinion on that matter.

Speaking of the Nino, just checking out the SOI, which is a pretty good leading indicator of ENSO activity, is on the rise. Current 30 avg is 5.7. Daily # is 15.4

Here's how I'm looking at the main indices keeping in mind that I would like a cold winter (sig. wintry precip. would be a bonus, of course since it is not easy to get in Atlanta):

1) The chances of getting a weak Nino are really small now. So, I'm assuming a weak Nino (five trimonths in a row of +0.5+) is no longer a reasonable possibility.

2) What is the next best thing? Getting as high end a neutral positive as possible. (I assume Wow likes this idea ) So, I'll be rooting for as warm as possible for 3.4. A strong -SOI string would help. I'll be hoping for that.

3) I'll be hoping for a -NAO and -AO. This seems quite doable based on the Oct. Siberian snow as well as the recent NAO/AO pattern The stronger the negatives, the better (I assume).

4) I'll be hoping for the current moderate -PDO to become a +PDO in time for DJF averaged. This is going to be very tough to do, especially with no Nino. I'm hoping for a -EPO dominated pattern in Dec. to give the PDO its best chance of rising a lot. If there's no +PDO, the next best hope would be for an only moderate -PDO...say above -1.00 averaged over DJF.

5) A winter that is high end neutral-positive ENSO, that has a -NAO, that has a -AO, and that has a +PDO would imo be the best case scenario now being that the weak Nino chances are just about dead. If we can get those, we should have a cold winter and would have a shot at a very cold winter ala 1935-6, which had that same combo of indices, and was the 5th coldest winter on record at KATL. That winter also produced three major winter storms at KATL (two ice and one snow), pretty much unprecedented, as well as well above normal rainfall. However, the +PDO is looking like the least likely of these.

[griteater]

5) A winter that is high end neutral-positive ENSO, that has a -NAO, that has a -AO, and that has a +PDO would imo be the best case scenario now being that the weak Nino chances are just about dead. If we can get those, we should have a cold winter and would have a shot at a very cold winter ala 1935-6, which had that same combo of indices, and was the 5th coldest winter on record at KATL. That winter also produced three major winter storms at KATL (two ice and one snow), pretty much unprecedented, as well as well above normal rainfall. However, the +PDO is looking like the least likely of these.

Incidentally, I would rank the 1935-1936 winter as the best all-time in Charlotte (since 1879). 41 days with highs of 42 or less (we had 2 last winter). 11 days with highs of 32 or less. 7 measureable snow events, with 3 of them 4 inches or greater.